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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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  On 5/16/2022 at 11:22 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I just find it funny when the humid humpers find a 384hr 2m temp map to support their cause but won’t post the next run when it doesn’t. MWD can go either way, we’ll see. 

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I'll be sure to set my alarm and be more proactive next time so you don't throw a tantrum

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yeah ... we speculated last week that this would be an acceleration in the green-up.   Back to back days of 80+ might do that in the 2nd week of May. 

Along this end of Rt 2, I'd say all trees are leafing now, some are 1/4 .. 1/2, ranging to the Norwalks which are nearly full. 

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  On 5/16/2022 at 1:22 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah ... we speculated last week that this would be an acceleration in the green-up.   Back to back days of 80+ might do that in the 2nd week of May. 

Along this end of Rt 2, I'd say all trees are leafing now, some are 1/4 .. 1/2, ranging to the Norwalks which are nearly full. 

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Almost there

20220516_094120.jpg

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This region of the continent doesn't typically get big heat from SW flow. Counter intuitive, perhaps, but the region gets more 'seasonal'/climate heat that way.

 It's kind of expected seeing the GFS/Euro trend away from the 99's, when considering the generally agreed upon standard warm sector synoptics through the tail end of the week and weekend.

The big heat, those 95+ to 102's, have a different synoptic scaffolding.  You end up in a scenario of light W to WNW wind at the surface, under a NW flow at 500 mb.  And in betweeen.. Sonoran/SW heat release air layer has timed it's arrival ( 850 dragon belch 22.5 C) accordingly.  

In 2017 July, for example, we had the synoptic scaffold as such, but there was no kinetic layer delivered. We did well to cook locally, but boy did that week leave a lot on the table, despite maxing at 98 ( I think it was....). 

The longer term pattern looks oscillatory in nature tho.  The models tend to too much amplitude beyond D7's regardless, but same here.. Warm(cool) signals, either direction, might be more like (seasonal + the unknown contribution of CC polynomial of terms)/ 2   

 

 

 

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  On 5/16/2022 at 1:53 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

This region of the continent doesn't typically get big heat from SW flow. Counter intuitive, perhaps, but the region gets more 'seasonal'/climate heat that way.

 It's kind of expected seeing the GFS/Euro trend away from the 99's, when considering the generally agreed upon standard warm sector synoptics through the tail end of the week and weekend.

The big heat, those 95+ to 102's, have a different synoptic scaffolding.  You end up with a light W to WNW wind, under NW flow at 500 mb.  Sonoran/SW heat release times it's arrival ( 850 dragon belch 22.5 C).   In 2017 July, for example, we had the synoptic scaffold as such, but there was no kinetic layer delivered. We did well to cook locally, but boy did that week leave a lot on the table, despite maxing at 98 ( I think it was....). 

The longer term pattern looks oscillatory in nature tho.  The models tend to too much amplitude beyond D7's regardless, but same here.. Warm(cool) signals, either direction, might be more like (seasonal + the unknown contribution of CC polynomial of terms)/ 2   

 

 

 

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Couple ticks AN is the new normal, yup. Looks seasonal moving forward which is just fine to be able to enjoy the seasons, spring, which many have been waiting for. 

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  On 5/16/2022 at 1:42 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Almost there

20220516_094120.jpg

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Doesn't look all that different than up here.  Leaf-out went from <5% to well over 50% in about 5 days - quickest I've seen it.  Maples are almost fully out, oaks 50%, ash still lagging as always.  Yesterday's 60° RA probably didn't slow the process much.  Only 0.24" thru this morning, needed 4-5 times that much.

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  On 5/16/2022 at 1:57 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Couple ticks AN is the new normal, yup. Looks seasonal moving forward which is just fine to be able to enjoy the seasons, spring, which many have been waiting for. 

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I could almost see it being like that (^ abv), + 1 or 2  ?

Just not going crazy is what I mean.

I mean...out of respect for the mean modal look, of -.5 PNA while also on-going around that same amount of anomaly in the +NAO.  The mode tandem of those two tends to favor S/SE U.S. warm anomalies, and high pressure return flows tapping into that to some punny degree - heh - isn't an altogether terrible idea. 

We'll see.  These zonal progressive means can also break one way or the other... I do sense that the westerlies are a bit over-active/lagging ( perhaps fitting the leitmotif over the last 20 years to do so, deeper and deeper into springs - the models won't stop until we've verified an ALB snow flurry on June 10 lol ).  Anyway, eventually the ambient polar jet will likely retreat/break down into summer noodles, and I wonder if there's a big June heat wave out there after this oscillatory aspect inevitably moves into the next paradigm.  

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  On 5/16/2022 at 12:41 PM, MJO812 said:

Smfh

My wedding :(

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Congrats, My cousins are also getting married next Saturday.  150 people, outdoor wedding in the Poconos.  I guess I have been elected to be the official  weather guy  in the family.  Hot and humid for sure but the cold front and line of storms could screw things up late afternoon.  Lots of pressure on me, could come down to the wire and if I'm wrong I could be out casted from the family

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  On 5/16/2022 at 3:32 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Congrats, My cousins are also getting married next Saturday.  150 people, outdoor wedding in the Poconos.  I guess I have been elected to be the official  weather guy  in the family.  Hot and humid for sure but the cold front and line of storms could screw things up late afternoon.  Lots of pressure on me, could come down to the wire and if I'm wrong I could be out casted from the family

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Family is overrated.

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  On 5/16/2022 at 3:32 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Congrats, My cousins are also getting married next Saturday.  150 people, outdoor wedding in the Poconos.  I guess I have been elected to be the official  weather guy  in the family.  Hot and humid for sure but the cold front and line of storms could screw things up late afternoon.  Lots of pressure on me, could come down to the wire and if I'm wrong I could be out casted from the family

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Hopefully it won't be like Sunday, August 17, 1969 at a certain music festival...

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  On 5/16/2022 at 5:12 PM, weathafella said:

I got married 6/8/69-Mickey Mantle Day.    Night wedding and a deluge!

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Good friends got married on July 20, 1996 in South Gardiner, Maine.  Ceremony was inside the church while the reception was in a 3-pole tent on the adjacent lawn, with sprinkles and howling wind all afternoon  Tent stakes were 4 feet long steel bars that the wind kept working upward, such that every 5-10 minutes we were pounding them back down.  70 miles west and 6,250 feet higher, MWN recorded a 24-hour average windspeed of 99 mph, strongest measured there in met summer, with a 154 mph gust.  We'll never know how close it came to launching the tent into the nearby Kennebec.

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