tamarack Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Regarding that... I have a question... We have the running and then final average temperatures for the month of April. But those are doing the diurnal totals. I was wondering if the lows, or highs are averaged separately? Maybe the highs were below normal, and the lows were above normal ... but just by enough in the latter that it pulled the totals above. That was the case here, and it seemed most days had significant wind. April 2022: Portrait of a mega-meh month. Temps: Avg max: 51.60 -0.32 Highest: 60 on 12th/15th. This is my first April (24 yr) that failed to get milder than 60. Avg min: 30.30 +1.73 Lowest: 21 on the 5th. Only my 2nd April that didn't reach 20 or below. (23 in 2010) The 39° span is easily the smallest for April here, average is 58°. Mean: 40.93 +0.70 Tale of 2 different halves: 1-15 was 52.1/29.6 and +3.5 Sunny/PC/Cloudy days: 5/4/6 Sunny plus PC/2 = 7, or 47% sun. 16-30 was 51.1/31.0 and -2.5 Sunny/PC/Cloudy days: 1/6/8 Sunny plus PC/2 = 4, or 27% sun. Most of the windy days were also in the 2nd half. There are 6 temp items for which I keep daily extremes: high, low, mean for both warm and cold. Usually a month will establish several new extremes, but April 2022 never got close to setting any. I can't recall any other month with no new extremes. Precip: 4.90" +0.77" Wettest day: 1.00" on the 27th 2022 cumulative is 13.88", a mere 0.01" AN. Snowfall: 0.2" on the 19th plus two days with T. Average is 4.90". Season total snowfall is 67.1" which is 21" BN. SDDs were 1,518, which is 246 BN, though 37 above the median. Tallest pack was 26" on Feb. 4. That's right on the median but 3" below average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 The frosts/freezes are likely done for him, but they can struggle if it's on the cooler side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, tamarack said: That was the case here, and it seemed most days had significant wind. April 2022: Portrait of a mega-meh month. ( haha ... ) Temps: Avg max: 51.60 -0.32 Highest: 60 on 12th/15th. This is my first April (24 yr) that failed to get milder than 60. Avg min: 30.30 +1.73 Lowest: 21 on the 5th. Only my 2nd April that didn't reach 20 or below. (23 in 2010) The 39° span is easily the smallest for April here, average is 58°. Mean: 40.93 +0.70 Tale of 2 different halves: 1-15 was 52.1/29.6 and +3.5 Sunny/PC/Cloudy days: 5/4/6 Sunny plus PC/2 = 7, or 47% sun. 16-30 was 51.1/31.0 and -2.5 Sunny/PC/Cloudy days: 1/6/8 Sunny plus PC/2 = 4, or 27% sun. Most of the windy days were also in the 2nd half. There are 6 temp items for which I keep daily extremes: high, low, mean for both warm and cold. Usually a month will establish several new extremes, but April 2022 never got close to setting any. I can't recall any other month with no new extremes. Precip: 4.90" +0.77" Wettest day: 1.00" on the 27th 2022 cumulative is 13.88", a mere 0.01" AN. Snowfall: 0.2" on the 19th plus two days with T. Average is 4.90". Season total snowfall is 67.1" which is 21" BN. SDDs were 1,518, which is 246 BN, though 37 above the median. Tallest pack was 26" on Feb. 4. That's right on the median but 3" below average. I've been referring to it as the month of Anus ... but no one's taking to it so I'll desist eventually. This is a particularly un-redeeming time of year. Loathsome month. Some rare ( what? 1:20 return rate) we'll get quality but dry or not, this was a climate shit-hole April like any other. I really don't care that much about direct sun. Temperatures piss me off. Yeah...that's interesting. I wonder if all this can find agreement among the various climo sites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's funny you bring this up ... I mentioned the GFS tending to accumulate too much gradient out in time, as a kind of static bias of that tool. I haven't delved into any hypothesis as to why - tho I have them. I've only mentioned occasionally that it does this. It may in fact be the thermodynamic (evap/condensation) handling in the ongoing total atmosphere. I remember about 4 years ago... maybe 5 (2017 or 2018) ...there was a powerful March storm taking shape in the models, parked perfectly E of Long Island. I don't recall what the other models were doing ...but the GFS at the time had 39/31 (T/TD spread), within heavy comma-head QPF, with a CCB coming in under 850 mb temperature that were -1 to -2 C. This was also a recently updated/new version release of the GFS. We are all speculative of course ... It was as though the model couldn't wet-bald. It got within 80 % of doing so and halted the gap. So of course ( lol) privately we were all hoping 33 or 34 wet bulb blue bomb snow disaster could be in the making.. haha. Ennnnnt! ( enter buzzer sound)... What happened? 33 to 34 F saturated cat paws and straight rain to 2.5 or 3" of hydro. Oh, we were right to question the new version of the era's GFS, but it didn't pay dividends to late season hopefuls..no. Wah wah wah. there was a pesky 925 mb +2 or something... Still a bizarre event either way because that was slam dunk for dynamic isothermia that evaded taking place. The storm actually maxed out at mid levels prior to arrival...I wonder if that idiosyncratic timing has something to do with it... New version of the GFS was suppose to address that stuff... But I wonder if there are still some 2ndary or tertiary type d3' aspects the nag at it still, perhaps ultimately rooted to when it was more glaring - like in that March storm's case. I actually vaguely remember this event. This did occur right around the time of the upgrade if I'm recalling correctly...it was this event and a few others across the country which I think highlighted the super cold bias the model then had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Five minute light shower was it this morning. Fine with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The frosts/freezes are likely done for him, but they can struggle if it's on the cooler side. It’s painful we can’t get consecutive days of real spring out there. After a week of BN temps, clouds, and high winds, yesterday was finally full nudity ….and today is right back into hoodies, with wives turning the heat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 52 light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Five minute light shower was it this morning. Fine with me. Was this in Fishers outdoor shower? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 12z gfs much, much better later next week and beyond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 GFS caving AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s painful we can’t get consecutive days of real spring out there. After a week of BN temps, clouds, and high winds, yesterday was finally full nudity ….and today is right back into hoodies, with wives turning the heat on. Tried to tell him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Not as nice as yesterday but still a bit better than it has been. Upper 50's with mix sun and clouds. Though trying to put lipstick on a pig for days in the upper 40's/low 50's in late April was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Not as nice as yesterday but still a bit better than it has been. Upper 50's with mix sun and clouds. Though trying to put lipstick on a pig for days in the upper 40's/low 50's in late April was ridiculous. You mean milder nights and front loaded April warmth don’t do it for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You mean milder nights and front loaded April warmth don’t do it for you? Front loaded April AN here but w/o real warmth. Having a March day milder than any in April happens on occasion and not just in 2012. However, having April's mildest just 4° above that in February is a first-timer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: GFS caving AWT Slowly ...yup. But it could yet come back...? I don't put it beyond the GFS to try, but frankly I think it will win in this case. I think there will be a weakness there, but yeah, the GFS was likely over-blown ( pun intended) Other concepts: There is a hugely consistent, multi-domain space mode change signaled, all of them actually... The PNA flips negative. The AO flips positive. And the NAO flips positive, all dong so along the same temporality. The PNA, or NAO alone backs away from a GFS support, but doing so in tandem connotes a GFS' deeper solution even less. I feel confident that the GFS' speed bias is playing into that ... A weakness - I think - will be there. Because here's the confusing part: the hemisphere is fast, anyway. As an aside, I have noticed - as have others - that there's been a tendency in recent May and Junes to through heat anomalies through southern Canada, while setting up a SE inflow - almost like a displaced Trade wind anomaly - into the M/A ... I've referred to this as a "continental Kelvin -Hemholts" effect. The fast jet lifts N, then there is a kind of counter-balancing ( non-linear or "emergent") tendency for the flow to drop S over the Maritime ... well basically, imagine a Bermuda clockwise circulation displaced N of normal. This has been observed; the causality is all theoretic conjecture... Either way, I don't find it coincidental that here we are, another May, and these models are putting +16C at 850 plumes over the tick country of southern Ontario, while it's barely 10 C near DCA with a some sort of weakness there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 GFS with a nice over the top torch next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Installs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Installs Wait ... so you're gonna install your AC, for heat 600 miles away up in Toronto ? Interesting... Sides, window units are phasing out. They're loud and power exhaustive and not terribly efficient - some are better than others..whatever. Homes and other edifices are getting out fitted with what are called, 'mini-splits,' which do more complete environmental controls vastly more efficiently, within the air space itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Stein beat the rain back easily with his stick . Most folks haven’t measured or seen any . I bet he wins Wednesday too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stein beat the rain back easily with his stick . Most folks haven’t measured or seen any . I bet he wins Wednesday too I thought it was supposed to rain tonight - whatdya mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I thought it was supposed to rain tonight - whatdya mean Most was supposed to be today. At least in this area. Radar looks basically nil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 It was tonight. Today was just very light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS with a nice over the top torch next week. GGEM brings it from DTX to BOS for how much/little it's worth - Hate to say, some kind of warm anomaly fits this: How far it actually goes or what orientation, who knows... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Was this in Fishers outdoor shower? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It was tonight. Today was just very light stuff. Not in CT. At any rate.. hope you’re right. Lawn needs it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Euro looks great next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Early summer enroute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 37 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Euro looks great next week! we hope it works out! verbatim looks like D10 would be the first 90+ day of the year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Yeah ..that's a toasty extended Euro, no doubt. Sets up a surface anticyclonic node centered N. Pa, with what appears to be a thermally induced trough east of the Berk's up/down the coastal plain. That pretty much forces the flow WNW dragon breath. Meanwhile, non-hydrostatic heights approaching 590 dm. Hydrostatic heights > 570 dm. The 850s would likely be warmer than that - I mean they're not un-warm.. One thing I've noticed is that the 850s tend to moderate in the Euro. Whether cold outbreaks in winter, or the extended range heat in summers... the D8-9-10 more typically will elevate a tick or two, if/when the long range essence becomes real. So we'll see there... But, that set up pushes D9 into the 80s and probably 90 D10. Again...I'm > 50% confident in a pattern change toward warmer over mid latitudes of the continent/E but those particulars are low confidence for now. It would be nice if that dumpster setting up through the W. could get them some hydro tho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Early summer enroute I hope you’re right for a change. Having the heat on in late April and now in May is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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