Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Well that 66 at FIT and 64(?) at BED busted warm like we thought. Both bootlegged a 72 off 71.6 according to MESOWest... either way, good call there - Also, as Scott suspected, BOS had no chance of making 66 in a zip gradient full sun May day while there's super adiabatic overturning inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Hey PF ... beware over-top May heat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I waited until around Mayorch 20 last year and my pepper yield was very low. It was too late IMO. I get way too many tomatoes and not enough peppers . The 40” of rain last summer did no favors to the pepper plants . I decided this year with the mild look the next 10 days and then big warm signal after that … that there’s no freeze chances.. so get them in early and hope for a better yield. Yea it definitely was all the rain early last year. Best of luck hope your yield is large. Love gardening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 71.1⁰ for the high, 28.6⁰ for the low...what a day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Planted the garden veggies this afternoon.Various types of tomatoes and peppers. Will stake the tomatoes when they get a little taller. Did you save some money in the budget for extra tomato plants you’ll need to buy when these die in a frost? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Romaine sprouts yesterday, 6 days after planting. Nothing else so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 67.8° for the high off a low of 28.9°. Almost a 40° diurnal range. Sweet day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Looks gray the next few days. Hopefully stays relatively dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 There are 2.5 months where it absolutely sucks living on the coast. March - May 15th. 57 yesterday with a ripping wind. Played golf at pine hills in a jacket and pants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Clicked the heat on again this morning. It will be needed through at least Wednesday. Trip home from NY, leaves look a month behind, broadly. Stick and mud seasons last too long. Been a brutal stretch. No tropical air masses, really stymies vegetation growth, of all kinds. Key ingredient under-appreciated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Dry begets dry, almost time for Stein talk time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Pope gone wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 GFS seems alone on worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 9 hours ago, mreaves said: 67.8° for the high off a low of 28.9°. Almost a 40° diurnal range. Sweet day. 63/27 here yesterday, mildest for the year so far and little wind. Quite the treat after Thurs-Fri with both temp and wind in the 30s at our men's retreat NW from Moosehead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 The pattern for the upcoming few weeks is just a giant pain in the fanny. I don't think I'd have much confidence at all in a medium/long-range forecast for the upcoming few weeks. The highest overall confidence seems to be within the West with a fairly sizeable ridge developing in the West but this may not be a long-term established ridge unlike the past few years. The bigger challenge is how the pattern evolves across the central and eastern U.S. The overall look does look omega block-ish which can be horrific for us...but there is some great uncertainty as to where the trough axis becomes established. While the upcoming look may be unseasonably cool with clouds/precip chances we can't totally rule out a scenario where we get some over-the-top warmth coming in from Canada. Maybe another scenario upcoming where NNE bakes while SNE is cool/cloudy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Gone mad or not... we are definitely behind recent year's behavior with our timing in particularly above ground deciduous species. Bushes and shrubs are leafed out, but even those appears stuck at 80% or so - they don't seem "full" The tree I lovingly refer to as 'General Sherman,' that looms over from its kitty-corner anchor at the nexus of three properties, including mine, is skeletal. Sucker stands some 70 or so foot maybe more, with a canopy span that's perhaps 2/3rds or more of that same distance. It's an old, old Sugar Maple... I'm guessing by the 4' ~ drunk diameter, probably got it's start around the Industrial Revolution. Anyway, Sherman's never gone this deep into spring without at minimum, notable swelled buds. As of yesterday, it had not. I haven't actually checked this morning... We pinged 73 yesterday and having stayed above the 30s overnight, who knows. Even the Silver Maple across the way, which tends to drop its reddish bud detritus by early April most years is being ambivalent about unfurling leaflets. That sucker usually has the beginnings of dappling shade over the road it claims by now... The only exception appears to be the Norwalks; they are flowered out now everywhere. I don't know how or why... "what" may be more apropos, decides when all that gets underway. It can't be the temperatures in April alone. That month was modestly above average. Maybe it's the behavior of the temperature some how. Could it be that plants are like humans, in that they get pissed off by shit-showing asshole cold windy days. That would be neat. I dunno.. but if I was tree stuck out there in this last month's piece of shitness I think I'd-a checked out too. Lol. Regarding that... I have a question... We have the running and then final average temperatures for the month of April. But those are doing the diurnal totals. I was wondering if the lows, or highs are averaged separately? Maybe the highs were below normal, and the lows were above normal ... but just by enough in the latter that it pulled the totals above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Cut off city on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cut off city on the gfs I'm not to worried about it, seein' as you asked me and care what I think. no but the ensemble mean of all guidance, including its own GEFs, are no where near as prominent with that feature. Even the operational version of the Euro and GGEM are less amplified overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not to worried about it, seein' as you asked me and care what I think. no but the ensemble mean of all guidance, including its own GEFs, are no where near as prominent with that feature. Even the operational version of the Euro and GGEM are less amplified overall. The wet week is turning fairly dry . Thursday looks 72 and a beaut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 The GFS creates it's own error in this case. It's consummate over -evaluation of westerly jet power. As an ongoing problem ( a see in this guidance), it cumulatively end up in late mid and extended range, with too much westerly wind velocities, and too much hon-hydrostatic gradient out in time. It's basically consummately after cooling the polar side of the jet. For example, by D7 ( most notable in DJF) compare the Euro with the GFS and the latter will be 3-5 dm colder in the cold cyclonic regions over the north side of the ambient polar jet. It carries, even in vague semblance, on with this tendency... Among other aspects, it fights seasonal change; at this time of year when that change intrinsically is trying to relax the hemisphere, it's trying to load gradients. I think in this case ... what it may be doing is that it sees the flow as relaxing, with the +(AO/NAO) but right at the boundary of that transition/mode change, it has a resulting surplus of wind mechanics and cold that it's stuck with ... it drops in and gets caught in the weakness. I think there will be a weakness there ... astride the MA ... But I suspect the GFS operational, being the outlier - and having it's biases - is too much with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not to worried about it, seein' as you asked me and care what I think. no but the ensemble mean of all guidance, including its own GEFs, are no where near as prominent with that feature. Even the operational version of the Euro and GGEM are less amplified overall. I'm headed for Hatteras on Saturday. I'm concerned that thing sits and churns for the week down there. NE winds and upwelling ftl...Hoping it is more progressive than currently modeled, seems to be the theme this year at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The wet eeek is turning fairly dry . Thursday looks 72 and a beaut Yeah, I was noticing that... Thursday looks similar to yesterday - though not an exact match. ... Wind drops light, with mild -ish 850 mb temps, and a flow between the surface and that level averaging d-slope. 700, 500 and 300 mb RH mean values < 50% suggests ample sun ( using the Euro for these metrics) would suggest more on the clear side. May sun doing the rest... Euro 2-m is 69 at HFD and 64 F at BOS... But those appear to be the adiabatic temps - they don't calculate the 100 meter near the surface, where it's sloped sounding under a broiling sol. Add 4 or 5 to HFD, and BOS gets screwed within 5 or 10 clicks of the Harbor by the usual. GFS synoptics are not enough different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not to worried about it, seein' as you asked me and care what I think. no but the ensemble mean of all guidance, including its own GEFs, are no where near as prominent with that feature. Even the operational version of the Euro and GGEM are less amplified overall. This is where I think the low confidence comes in because this could be a situation where the ensembles will be useless because of the smoothing involved or maybe the OP is just too aggressive with this feature. I am leaning towards the ensembles just being useless in this scenario because if you look at the OP it's not really a consistent static (key word here) pattern. There is some deviation in the day-to-day regime. This just leads me to believe we will continue to see a pattern in which we get some pleasant days in (but will still struggle at times to reach climo) and some days which are like today. ensembles are just going to be pretty pointless for the foreseeable future just due to how chaotic the pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I'm headed for Hatteras on Saturday. I'm concerned that thing sits and churns for the week down there. NE winds and upwelling ftl...Hoping it is more progressive than currently modeled, seems to be the theme this year at least. mm .. nyeah down by Hatteras? It may be more problematic down that way, but how much so... too early unfortunately. The thing is, these west Atlantic "true" cut-offs have a climatology at this time of year. More so in April ... but it is only early May. (2005, May, was not the same thing for those savvy). That all said, they can be over assessed at this range. I'm almost positive last year dealt with one of these in May modeling. We had to sit by run after run, slowing it filled and minored in the guidance... and then what verified was a heat wave for S. Ontario and Quebec, while a mere weakness set up east of the M/A...and SE surface wind kept that region tucked with 70s. I could see this doing something similar with over-the-top early warmth being tucked under at large synoptic scales, and that the GFS is dumping a surplus of mechanics into what may in fact not really exist - again...an artifact of it's bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Hopefully the Euro is more correct with the cutoff staying well south...so we'd at least be far enough north to get a decent amount of sun and avoid the horrific onshore flow. GFS on the other hand basically makes it a full-on mother's day weekend massacre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is where I think the low confidence comes in because this could be a situation where the ensembles will be useless because of the smoothing involved or maybe the OP is just too aggressive with this feature. I am leaning towards the ensembles just being useless in this scenario because if you look at the OP it's not really a consistent static (key word here) pattern. There is some deviation in the day-to-day regime. This just leads me to believe we will continue to see a pattern in which we get some pleasant days in (but will still struggle at times to reach climo) and some days which are like today. ensembles are just going to be pretty pointless for the foreseeable future just due to how chaotic the pattern is. Yeah I just dropped a post in myself discussing my personal hypothesis on "GFS creating its own error space" ... either way, comes to the same recourse... EPS/GEFs blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully the Euro is more correct with the cutoff staying well south...so we'd at least be far enough north to get a decent amount of sun and avoid the horrific onshore flow. GFS on the other hand basically makes it a full-on mother's day weekend massacre. It does appear there is some hope for such a scenario to occur (if we indeed see a cut-off that aggressive). 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I just dropped a post in myself discussing my personal hypothesis on "GFS creating its own error space" ... either way, comes to the same recourse... EPS/GEFs blend. We'll see what happens...both Euro/GFS in general agreement for this cut-off scenario but GFS is just way more intense. I wonder too if there is a great deal of "feedback" here just because of all the convection that is likely to occur within the Plains this week. Much of this shortwave energy which ends up responsible for the cut-off stems from convection in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It does appear there is some hope for such a scenario to occur (if we indeed see a cut-off that aggressive). We'll see what happens...both Euro/GFS in general agreement for this cut-off scenario but GFS is just way more intense. I wonder too if there is a great deal of "feedback" here just because of all the convection that is likely to occur within the Plains this week. Much of this shortwave energy which ends up responsible for the cut-off stems from convection in the Plains. It's funny you bring this up ... I mentioned the GFS tending to accumulate too much gradient out in time, as a kind of static bias of that tool. I haven't delved into any hypothesis as to why - tho I have them. I've only mentioned occasionally that it does this. It may in fact be the thermodynamic (evap/condensation) handling in the ongoing total atmosphere. I remember about 4 years ago... maybe 5 (2017 or 2018) ...there was a powerful March storm taking shape in the models, parked perfectly E of Long Island. I don't recall what the other models were doing ...but the GFS at the time kept hitting at 39/31 type T/TD spreads 3 .. 5 days in advance. Within heavy comma-head QPF, no less? And with a CCB coming in under 850 mb temperatures all of -1 to -2 C, there was hope for uh ...other. This was also a recently updated/new version release of the GFS. We are all speculative of course ... It was as though the model couldn't wet-bulb. It got within 80 % of doing so and halted the gap. So of course ( lol) privately we were all hoping 33 or 34 wet bulb blue bomb snow disaster could be in the making.. haha. Ennnnnt! ( enter buzzer sound)... What happened? 33 to 34 F saturated cat paws and straight rain to 2.5 or 3" of hydro. Oh, we were right to question the new version of the era's GFS, but it didn't pay dividends to late season hopefuls..no. Wah wah wah. there was a pesky 925 mb +2 or something... Still a bizarre event either way because that was slam dunk for dynamic isothermia that evaded taking place. The storm actually maxed out at mid levels prior to arrival...I wonder if that idiosyncratic timing has something to do with it... Anyway, soon after a new version of the GFS was suppose to have addressed that stuff... But I wonder if there are still some 2ndary or tertiary type d3' aspects that nag at it, perhaps ultimately rooted back to when it was more glaring - like in that March storm's case. Thermodynamic 'bugs' in code Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm .. nyeah down by Hatteras? It may be more problematic down that way, but how much so... too early unfortunately. The thing is, these west Atlantic "true" cut-offs have a climatology at this time of year. More so in April ... but it is only early May. (2005, May, was not the same thing for those savvy). That all said, they can be over assessed at this range. I'm almost positive last year dealt with one of these in May modeling. We had to sit by run after run, slowing it filled and minored in the guidance... and then what verified was a heat wave for S. Ontario and Quebec, while a mere weakness set up east of the M/A...and SE surface wind kept that region tucked with 70s. I could see this doing something similar with over-the-top early warmth being tucked under at large synoptic scales, and that the GFS is dumping a surplus of mechanics into it that may in fact not really exist - again...an artifact of it's bias. We typically travel to the area in May and have dealt with all sorts of weather down there during the month. Tropical storm Ana was the most recent named storm that I could remember 2015? Definitely some great weather mixed in there as well our last time down there was pre pandemic, 2019 and it was July temperatures in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 13 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Did you save some money in the budget for extra tomato plants you’ll need to buy when these die in a frost? He rushes the growing season like he rushes winter. It’s like he lives a month ahead of everyone else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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