weatherwiz Posted April 25, 2022 Share Posted April 25, 2022 At the start of this thread, May is only 6-days away which means the start of severe weather season is right around the corner!!! April has proven to be a rather typical spring month here in New England with some rather warm days, some rather chilly days, days with rain, and even some snow. As we head towards the month of May, there are some conflicting signals within the long-range guidance. If one just looks at an averaged 500mb pattern you can draw conclusions, but at the end of the day those conclusions will probably not be accurate. The conflicting signals likely correlate to the fact that the pattern across North America will continue to remain volatile and perhaps dominated by a series of ridges/troughs propagating through the country. One of the biggest factors may be how the pattern is configured around the Arctic (most notable the NAO/AO). Typically, these indices start having less influence on the pattern as you move through spring, but they can certainly shape the pattern and play big factors through May. And unfortunately, there are conflicting signals on the evolution of these indices moving through May. Let's just hope that whatever happens, we can get into some patterns which usher in big heat, high humidity, EML's, and lots of convection!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 26, 2022 Author Share Posted April 26, 2022 May actually see some convective potential sometime during the first half of next week...perhaps multiple days with potential. Some pretty decent shortwave energy coming in from the West with strong flow aloft. There will be opportunity to warm sector too with an established 850 low passing well to our West. Not much (right now anyways) showing up to prevent warm front from penetrating north at the surface (obviously can always change). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 26, 2022 Share Posted April 26, 2022 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: May actually see some convective potential sometime during the first half of next week...perhaps multiple days with potential. Some pretty decent shortwave energy coming in from the West with strong flow aloft. There will be opportunity to warm sector too with an established 850 low passing well to our West. Not much (right now anyways) showing up to prevent warm front from penetrating north at the surface (obviously can always change). Would like some fireworks on my bday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 26, 2022 Author Share Posted April 26, 2022 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: Would like some fireworks on my bday. Let’s make it happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Have a weekend trip to Bar Harbor May 5-8. Guess I'll pack my winter coat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 41 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Have a weekend trip to Bar Harbor May 5-8. Guess I'll pack my winter coat? That is one monster off off to the north. Looks like it's going to work hard at suppressing any systems. Terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 Fading hope for some really nice warm days next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 I'm having a pellet stove installed week of May 9. I had it in my head that I would not need to use it this spring. But with this look.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 ugly...U...G...L...Y May is going bye-bye 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 On 4/28/2022 at 10:39 AM, weatherwiz said: That is one monster off off to the north. Looks like it's going to work hard at suppressing any systems. Terrible hopefully it suppresses that garbage cutoff well south of us so we end up dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: hopefully it suppresses that garbage cutoff well south of us so we end up dry yeah right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 On 4/26/2022 at 6:57 PM, dendrite said: Would like some fireworks on my bday. Tornado videos yesterday in Andover were perhaps the best I have seen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2022 Author Share Posted May 1, 2022 Happy May!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 6 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Happy May!!! 31⁰ frosty cars but should be a spectacular day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 I hope it's warm during the last week of May. I will be in Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Just enjoy today’s first taste of real spring before another BN stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Already 51° off of 32.9°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 27 minutes ago, dendrite said: Already 51° off of 32.9°. Can you move those high temp aspects Scott and I just had over in the Anus thread to this one? I didn't realize we had a May thread going - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 39 for low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Seems like a bit of a drink tomorrow night and then Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Yeah ... this date could take first place in the diurnal recovery competition, no doubt. 33 to 36 at all home sites within a couple clicks of mi casa here in Ayer, where are all not 58, averaged. I man 20 to 24 recoveries by 9:15 am is like almost desert replace rates. Gettin a nerd chubby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like a bit of a drink tomorrow night and then Wednesday. Not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 28⁰ this morning, should touch 70⁰ here today...quite the daily swing That was 3 straight days in the 20s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 31F low, up to 54 now. Should get into the mid 60s. Not a bad bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 I'm not 'as' pessimistic about this week. I'm between Scott, vs Kevin's spin tactic ( his intent and reason for doing so a complete mystery -).... but closer to Scott's side. I think we get into a light passage of showery rains tomorrow night and mid week, but I don't see the days troubled by those blue hydrostatic crayon lines. In fact, as an aside ... two days of runs consistently showing 0 snow blob ptypes on QPF charts anywhere in New England, is a stunning achievement either by the GFS, or just this 2022's particular spring's learning curve. Anyway, I'm not sure what the sun quota will be in between these maintenance rains, but with 850s above 0 now through all periods, it wouldn't take long to pop 10 F on top of a static morass - I mean just having that built in is a huge milestone - and notice? The month of Anus has to officially close before the models paint a portrait like that? I'm kidding but I'm glad it's over. The extended still looks like a pretty coherent paradigm shift takes place across the hemisphere. Moving toward -PNA, +(AO/NAO) in tandem is a huge total scaffold change from erstwhile Neutral/positve PNA with -(AO/NAO) Pretty much a diametric indicator. This was hinted off and on over the last week... Often times, major shifts do that before the telecon's bomb the current mode out there in time. The operational runs fight it too... The GGEM is the only one that really shows what that total manifold is capable of ...with 588 dm non -hydrostatic bubble inflating to almost DTX out there at the end of it's run. That model is still a Dr Jeckle and Hyde product and can't be trusted, but it is better than it used to be. Given that it fits the telecon of the GEF/cross-guidance suggestion, and the oper Euro and GFS have at least some semblance - though clearly they are doing everything electronically possible to damp it out for whatever reason... ( the anti- DIT factor? )... Anyway, model solutions "like" the GGEM's D8-10 movement might emerge going forward. Could be a warm mid month... And I'd also forward that 'over top' heat waves have been getting more common in recent decade springs. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not much Looks like 0.5 to 1.0" for most of SNE on the Euro. Nothing big, but we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Looks like 0.5 to 1.0" for most of SNE on the Euro. Nothing big, but we take yeah... and the rain we had recently - all told I don't think it's ( fairly ) been that bad. I'll admit, as bad as the March 20 - May 20 time of year is both notorious, and earned for climate, we haven't head any of those week to 10-day long protracted wheel of wet deals that can often also be a part of the prison term. This years rendition of shit time of year has been more related to unrelenting poorly timed, cold, with what wind there has been, during day light hours related - it was taking the sun on mono e mono. But it has been particularly acute, despite data - sorry... the data and the daily weather experience do not always reflect one another. Said climo sites are barely plus for April ... T and P. Thing is, the summer's liable to be hot. That's my personal leaning idea for now... Responsibly? A couple of good 2-3" basin-wide griping, pissy post doom and gloom mood events before that heat arrives would be better for the region. Not likely get it... no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 I’m not saying 40s and rain, but looks meh with cool temps and some inclement weather. That’s all I meant. Kind of sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Looks like 0.5 to 1.0" for most of SNE on the Euro. Nothing big, but we take Yep. The occasional drink is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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