Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well son of a b**ch. Ensemble individuals are literally lock step with OP. How is this possible if the OP was wrong? LOL we'll soon see this come from the HPC HACKERS COPY AND PASTE GFS 12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO MAKE IT APPEAR AS IF THERE WILL BE A SNOWSTORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 JMA looks better then GFS. Does that have initialization problems too? J/K. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_48HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the errors resulted in almost all the ens members showing the same solution and HPC isn't use to seeing such uniformity so they assume there is an error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So your telling me that 11/12 members now have a significant hit??? Yes, and the one member with a miss still manages to bring some light snow into NJ/NYC. I'm taking the GFS/GEFS with a MAJOR grain of salt though. My guess is that the Euro comes in similar to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 JMA looks better then GFS. Does that have initialization problems too? J/K. http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif Not better but very good. .5-.75" for most of NJ, more for NYC east. A hit certainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 JMA looks better then GFS. Does that have initialization problems too? J/K. http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif HPC will throw that out because it's Japanese, not because of errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What was the Errors listings again, i do not feel like sifting through the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Another JMA coup a la Feb. 2006? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is a widespread case of food poisoning for sure if the JMA was impacted too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 JMA isn't better for Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 All I'm saying is that it's really impossible to know what the GFS would have done without the errors, so to just say that it's "definitely too fatr West" is not necessarily correct. Agreed..they should have wrote Something like cant be 100% sure GFs is accurate with initialization errors instead of completely disregarding solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Excuse me for saying better. Its better for NYC east. Almost same for NYC west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 JMA looks better then GFS. Does that have initialization problems too? J/K. http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...MPVORT_48HR.gif Nice.... shows about 6-10" of snow for my area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 JMA looks better then GFS. Does that have initialization problems too? J/K. http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif http://grib2.com/jma...MPVORT_48HR.gif doesnt look better then the gfs, the gfs has the .75 line in philly, this barely has the .50 line in philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Would the initialization errors affect both the ensembles and operationals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Agreed..they should have wrote Something like cant be 100% sure GFs is accurate with initialization errors instead of completely disregarding solution. with those errors..it still shows the midwest bomb on New Years in the same place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 doesnt look better then the gfs, the gfs has the .75 line in philly, this barely has the .50 line in philly I corrected. It's better for NYC east. It has 1.25" for NYC thru hour 72. With more coming after. I don't have hour 96 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Would the initialization errors affect both the ensembles and operationals? Yes, but as some have said, I'm not so sure it would have had that widespread an impact on the ensembles though...also the GEM was notably more amplified at 500, the UKIE was west and the JMA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Waiting for the euro to come and clean up this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12Z Euro has initialized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12Z Euro has initialized... Hopefully without massive erros... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So basically we have NO idea what's going on.... This is going to be a nowcast situation isn't it..... Perhaps tonight's runs will clear everything up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The FIM, which has been consistent on an OTS solution for days now, has come way west. Big hit for NYC/LI. Also, the Euro has just initialized! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Waiting for the euro to clean up this mess. If the euro depicts a storm teetering on the edge like snowgoose mentioned, then the mess will only get worse,not cleaned up. We need a definitive shift if we want confidence in an event or non event to grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12Z Euro has initialized... Just got out of a staff meeting, my boss was liking the westerm trend on the globals I, personally felt we should wait for 0z. Christmas eve timing means we have to make a call by tonight for a lot of our clients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hopefully without massive erros... LOL the HPC loves the Euro too much that it wouldn't say if it had initialization errors or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The FIM, which has been consistent on an OTS solution for days now, has come way west. Big hit for NYC/LI. Also, the Euro has just initialized! ton'y model of choice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The FIM, which has been consistent on an OTS solution for days now, has come way west. Big hit for NYC/LI. Also, the Euro has just initialized! how good is this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So GGEM UKMET JMA and FIM all came west. Must be those darned initialization problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 After reading some things which have gone on since I had to get ready to board the plane at SLC... all that comes to mind is a quote from General Anthony McAuliffe: "NUTS!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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