earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1016 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2010 VALID DEC 24/1200 UTC THRU DEC 28/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM EVALUATION INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ITS SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Either the GFS scores a huge coup here or all the other models are right...I'd favor the other models right now but they, too, are slowly shifting west. That makes me think they may come around at 0z, or at least much closer. All assuming this GFS run isn't a blip, of course. If this thing crawls up the coast (very premature but hypothetically) just inside of the 12z GFS depiction, who won over all, the Euro or the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSU2 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We'd have to learn more as to what those were exactly, it could be major or it could be nothing...the fact the GEM though trended clearly amplified at 500 makes me believe there is something to whats going on more than errors. I concur. That problem exits more often then not every model run and HPC is good about putting info out on that. Somtimes it impacts resuts, other times it does not. ERIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I stopped posting just to see what would happen, and every time I look back at the models, a little more west. This GFS run was just nuts, a quick phase and up the coast, and with full ensemble support, then it should be a legit in its own regards. Do the initialization errors have any impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We'd have to learn more as to what those were exactly, it could be major or it could be nothing...the fact the GEM though trended clearly amplified at 500 makes me believe there is something to whats going on more than errors. Yeah...I strongly agree. The NAM has been trending stronger w/ the feature through the plains for four runs now and is miles away from showing a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The reason the GGEM is not a hit like the GFS is its handling of the southern s/w....all models have trended stronger/sharper/faster with the northern s/w which is great but the GGEM/NAM drive part of the s/w into the GOM...while the GFS shows the northern stream being able to tug and capture cleanly the southern s/w The best thing to do is watch the w/v loop and see which model is handling the southern s/w correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Great news that the GFS ensembles are also a big hit. GGEM is also west... Ukie will be interesting, as well as the Euro. December 19th 2009 all over again... UKIE is west but it's still mostly a miss. Barely brushes the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Amazing turn of events to say the least. The phase occurs last minute but is so dynamic and there is such a quick sharpening of the trough. ERIC Is this scenario what the Euro was basically showing when it was consistent with it's HECS runs? A very late, but dynamic phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think someone in the Taunton office just wanted to see if they could crash this website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Gfs ensemble mean says "we back you all the way op!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If this thing crawls up the coast (very premature but hypothetically) just inside of the 12z GFS depiction, who won over all, the Euro or the GFS? I think that depends entirely on what the euro decides to do over its next couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From NWS Taunton: HIGHLIGHTS * POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off ECMWF will be big... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I wonder how the ensemble mean calculation incorporates the operation run - and if it changes the relative weighting in the short term (for example giving more weight to the OP run). Haven't seen the individual members, but the ensemble looks an awful lot like the OP, which is strange considering how the last few ensemble cycles have looked in terms of spread and mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I stopped posting just to see what would happen, and every time I look back at the models, a little more west. This GFS run was just nuts, a quick phase and up the coast, and with full ensemble support, then it should be a legit in its own regards. Do the initialization errors have any impact? Not that they have noted. The NAM was not affected, and the GFS discussion is not out yet. Regardless of the errors, it would not fully account for the 150 mile difference, as snowgoose pointed out. I would assume unless the northern vortex was mismodeled, then it might be other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Gfs ensemble mean says "we back you all the way op!" Can't wait for the individuals...will be interesting to see if the mean is skewed by significant west-leaners or if it is a split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UKIE is west but it's still mostly a miss. Barely brushes the coast. Its been severely progressive all season so its good to see it be only THAT far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 A bit too early for the SUNY MM5? It's out, but it takes our southern stream s/w farther south than the other models. It exits the Gulf Coast near Corpus Christi then fizzles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Latest RUC has the shortwave hanging back into the plains in GFS-like fashion. Not very reliable at this range, but a good sign. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/images/ruc_500_018s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UKIE is west but it's still mostly a miss. Barely brushes the coast. That's great news that it's grazing the coast, considering it had the Low P. giving showers to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HPC disregards the 12z GFS speaking about significant initialization errors on both the NAM and GFS. That being said, using simuawips analysis...I don't see many differences if any at all in regards to the shortwave over the Northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 When you read between the lines, they also mention the 00z Euro was off as well, and they are just following continuity. Man, the plot keeps getting thicker. INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY RESOLVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 A bit too early for the SUNY MM5? In my opinion that Suny MM5 model is the best kept secret around when it comes to short term forecasting and especially for temperature profile and precipitation type forecasting. Also if the 12Z GFS verifies The Weather Channel will need to change that goofy storm track graphic they have up of the eastern seaboard they cease to amaze me. I mentioned to my clients that forecasting this storm has equaled to being in a boxing match this week. Good thing there ready to go no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The 12z GFS if verified would mean a 3 to 6" snow for the NW Philly burbs taken verbatim with 0.35" of liquid....closer to 5 on the upper end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HPC disregards the 12z GFS speaking about significant initialization errors on both the NAM and GFS. That being said, using simuawips analysis...I don't see many differences if any at all in regards to the shortwave over the Northern Plains. Aren't the ensembles run on slightly different initialization conditions to see the results of those changes? If so why do those also show a big hit then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Talk about HPC being confident with this. Honestly, with the model fluctuations can you really just toss any model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM gives light snows to the reigion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 im kinda laughing rite now because you look at ensembles and it fully supports the op and i find it hard to believe that there wrong also i think hpc is covering there arse by throwing models out til the euro comes out if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The 12z GFS if verified would mean a 3 to 6" snow for the NW Philly burbs taken verbatim with 0.35" of liquid....closer to 5 on the upper end actually if the 12gfs verified, it shows 4-8 in leheigh valley and 7-11 in phill, so about 7-9 or so in philly burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Talk about HPC being confident with this. Honestly, with the model fluctuations can you really just toss any model? The Euro hasn't even come out yet. They don't know if it agrees with the GFS or not. I think that was a bad move by the HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The 12z GFS is the perfect end to a perfect failure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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