SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM is further west but still a miss. http://www.weatherof...ast/622_100.gif Yes and take a look at 500 hPa map, not too bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Someone said the JMA was just like the GFS. GGem and Ukie keep inching west.. Nothing but good there.. Euro today is HUGE..it needs to hit ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z gfs ens are big time west...now shows a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The GFS Ensemble mean is an absolute bomb...everybody here will start crying :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 big hit actually on gfs ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 big hit actually on gfs ens Show!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The GFS Ensemble mean is an absolute bomb...everybody here will start crying :lmao: At least the GFS supports itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS Ensemble mean has nearly an inch of liquid through 78 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 thank god..I was so tired of the Ensemble mean shifting east while watching the op go west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 big hit actually on gfs ens How can the GFS bust at this range with full ensemble support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 How can the GFS bust at this range with full ensemble support? easily when no other model supports it so far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 How can the GFS bust at this range with full ensemble support? The same way the GGEM and Euro can bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Either the GFS scores a huge coup here or all the other models are right...I'd favor the other models right now but they, too, are slowly shifting west. That makes me think they may come around at 0z, or at least much closer. All assuming this GFS run isn't a blip, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The same way the GGEM and Euro can bust. The euro busted when this system was 100+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSU2 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Amazing turn of events to say the least. The phase occurs last minute but is so dynamic and there is such a quick sharpening of the trough. ERIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If it doesn't fully phase you get a solution like the NAM. If you get a great phase you get the 12z GFS, If you get three pieces of energy phasing as some of the euro runs from 2 or 3 days ago suggested you get a massive crushing bomb for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 A few minutes ago from the NWS in Taunton: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGHLIGHTS* POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAMAS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WEHAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...ASWELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THEBENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROMHPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THISMORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONETHING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCYBETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TOTHE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TOWAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJORCHANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We also have to make sure that this isn't an over correction. We've seen it before. Let's get some more support for the GFS. And now initialization errors..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 How can the GFS bust at this range with full ensemble support? Because it's still by itself. The other globals must come on board by 12Z tomorrow and the GFS must hold serve. Then we can lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 wowowowo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Taunton AFD indicates HPC has sent out a notice there were initialization problems on this morning's NAM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The GFS Ensemble mean is an absolute bomb...everybody here will start crying :lmao: I noticed immediately how much wetter it is in the SE in the short term. It has clearly latched onto something new here. And that's important, especially for people in the mid-Atlantic. 12z http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12036.gif 0z (last night) http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Taunton AFD indicates HPC has sent out a notice there were initialization problems on this morning's NAM and GFS Their model diagnostic notes that the issues did not impact the NAM, still waiting on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Great news that the GFS ensembles are also a big hit. GGEM is also west... Ukie will be interesting, as well as the Euro. December 19th 2009 all over again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I was told the JMA supports the GFS...any official word on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We'd have to learn more as to what those were exactly, it could be major or it could be nothing...the fact the GEM though trended clearly amplified at 500 makes me believe there is something to whats going on more than errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I was told the JMA supports the GFS...any official word on that? that doesbt come out till 1 i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Need to take GFS current run with a bit of caution I would say...it is quite the outlier so be skeptical Taunton AFD indicates HPC has sent out a notice there were initialization problems on this morning's NAM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 A bit too early for the SUNY MM5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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