ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UKIE still OTS. Came closer though. Precip brushes the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just amazing, not really sure what to say!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Long Island deform band FTW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The vort over the plains that rapidly strengthens on the GFS and is trending much stronger on the NAM is the main feature here that captures the shortwave and tugs it up the coast. This is our miracle maker if it does verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UKIE still OTS. Came closer though. Precip brushes the coast. Good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The vort over the plains that rapidly strengthens on the GFS and is trending much stronger on the NAM is the main feature here that captures the shortwave and tugs it up the coast. This is our miracle maker if it does verify. I was pretty sure when I saw the 00 hour tau on the 12Z GFS it was coming west quite a bit but I did not think it would be THAT much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM out to hr 12, nothern stream digging more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Good trend. We don't have much time for trends at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Through 12 hours the canadian is already much stronger with the feature coming through the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Bittersweet for me if it comes to fruition, I have a flight out of LGA at 330 pm Sunday. If it hits, that is cutting it close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NOUS42 KNHC 231515 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1015 AM EST THU 23 DECEMBER 2010 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z DECEMBER 2010 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-023 ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. A63/ OTTNG/ 25/1200Z B. AFXXX 04WSA TRACK63 C. 25/0445Z D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 25/1400Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. A64/ 30.3N 75.0W/ 26/0000Z B. A64/ 30.3N 75.0W/ 26/1200Z JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I hope someone cashes in on this event, even if it isn't my backyard. But there have been instances in the past where the models "over correct" to the west 48-72 hours out and then begin one more final eastward trend. Hope that's not what we're seeing here. Routing for a festivus miracle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We don't have much time for trends at this point Agree. Would have liked UKIE to at least be a moderate hit. We need another model to support this. GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We don't have much time for trends at this point Nope, somebody sneezing in Arkansas to ensure that energy is strong enough is what we need now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 earthlight look at hour 30-42 when the phase is about to take place on the NAM/GFS The NAM has the southern s/w a bit further south than the GFS and the NAM's phase is not very clean, it looks like part of it escapes east and deamplifies the trough somewhat The GFS is very different here. The northern s/w is able to catch up and almost perfectly "capture" the southern s/w, for lack of a better term. I am really hoping GGEM jumps to the GFS solution since we do not have any support for it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think it's fair to say that no one in the meteorological world can know yet what the hell is happening this Sunday-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If 12z Euro shows similar outcome as the 12z GFS, are you buying a plane ticket home? Or are you already home for the Christmas? I'm traveling at this time... sitting at SLC about to board the plane to EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 earthlight look at hour 30-42 when the phase is about to take place on the NAM/GFS The NAM has the southern s/w a bit further south than the GFS and the NAM's phase is not very clean, it looks like part of it escapes east and deamplifies the trough somewhat The GFS is very different here. The northern s/w is able to catch up and almost perfectly "capture" the southern s/w, for lack of a better term. I am really hoping GGEM jumps to the GFS solution since we do not have any support for it right now. It still comes down to a small window, timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Huge changes with 12z GGEM, much stronger with plains feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well, we know this may not be the final outcome but check out the GFS run last week on 12-18-2010 and this latest run. Almost identical (at least to my untrained eye). For the pro mets out there, how does the model lose it and and why get it back?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM is further west but still a miss. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/622_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM is further west but still a miss. http://www.weatherof...ast/622_100.gif Looks quite NAM-like to me. It probably wouldn't take a lot to have it be like the GFS, but I would've liked to see more. I'm still thinking the wise call is for a close coastal brush with a few inches, more like 6" out in eastern Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I just booked a (comped) room in Atlantic City for Sunday-Monday. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GFS is about as good as short range charts can look for NYC, SWCT, and CLI. A crushing blow. Feb 1978? More like a shorter duration version of January 2005 on the cape if it came to fruition. Not as cold as 1/05 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 As someone explained earlier...the only thing seperating the GFS from the NAM and GGEM now are how it handels the phase. The GFS is much cleaner and the NAM doesn't fully phase..a correction I think that will be fixed with later runs. If the GGEM is very NAMish thats a good sign...albeit it would have been nice to see it fully jump on board. BTW heard the JMA showed a similar solution to the 12z GFS anybody have that available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The Euro run will be big. If it is a hit, it would make sense that the GGEM goes all the way over tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have a feeling by tonights runs all the models will come into line one way or another...all these close misses could come back like the GFs with a big hit by tonight or even this time tomorrow...That is how volatile this situation is with the dynamics.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Almost identical (at least to my untrained eye). You should probably use your trained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The Euro run will be big. If it is a hit, it would make sense that the GGEM goes all the way over tonight. I agree, very tough situation to deal with right now. I'd like to see the GFS Ens mean also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 some real time. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20101224&endTime=-1&duration=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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