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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 5


am19psu

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no...not on my maps....they get the tail end of the ccb....they get .75+....how is that missing the heavy stuff?

hr 66 phl is getting crushed

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNEAST_12z/f66.gif

the pay maps back it up...the crushing is in SNE....this isn't to say Philly gets nothing...it's gets a good/very good hit of several inches but the "best" goes to LI and SNE.

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This is why people that don't know whats going on should either not comment at all or wait until the run is finished. Someone just posted less than five minutes ago that its going OTS and to give up on it. I hope you feel stupid now :axe:

What I really couldn't believe is 75% of the board wrote off the storm yesterday when issues were yet to be resolved with this pattern.

It's not like this is a burp run or anything as the GFS has made this distinct trend wwd the past cycle. Stronger, further SW phasing with a sharper trough and more height rise on the EC.

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not an hitstoric storm by any means but gives everyone from the northern mid-atlantic on up warning criteria snowfall and considering how far we've come with this one we couldn't ask for much more. Now...if this thing came just 50 miles further west...we really get burried. Assuming this run gets at least some support from the other major globals sounds like winter storm watches/blizzard watches are in store for the afternoon package....at least for the Mt. Holly area. Upton probably waits till 00z.

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Alright guys, PLEASE try to keep the "all these idiots jumped off the bridge too soon" posts to a minimum. Lets try to be serious about this. It's one model run, we're still 60 hours out. Getting closer. Lets look at the rest of the 12Z suite. 00Z tonight will most likely be final.

A lot of WV loop nowcast analysis will be required. :thumbsup:

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What a great run!! But any chance it was a blip? I don't want to be drawn in too much yet.

Yes, good chance (>>50%) But it's wonderful news to have a major hit modeled in the short range. It means we're really close. Also validates intense model tracking and nowcasting for the next two days. :thumbsup::arrowhead:

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Euro can't still be right though if it happens. Lost the storm and now the GFS is really playing the lead model in my eyes.

I wouldn't exactly say that. It might be exactly what happened last week, except in reverse. A 1-2 run fluke and then back all-in. Very interested in what the 12Z EC will have.

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now ur getting greedy...please give me a break

:huh: No, I'm stating facts and not exaggerating what a model is showing. Philly's not getting crushed with snow. It's still a very good event...6-8 based on 10:1 is pretty damn good in a La Nina but it's not a crushing.

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I wouldn't exactly say that. It might be exactly what happened last week, except in reverse. A 1-2 run fluke and then back all-in. Very interested in what the 12Z EC will have.

If 12z Euro shows similar outcome as the 12z GFS, are you buying a plane ticket home? Or are you already home for the Christmas?

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