Blizzardo Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Alright we got one model guys. Lets not get too excited....remember the Euro 3 days ago? big difference between 3 days ago runs and todays runs but yes, I would like too see more support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Can someone post a qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, did not expect this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 no...not on my maps....they get the tail end of the ccb....they get .75+....how is that missing the heavy stuff? hr 66 phl is getting crushed http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNEAST_12z/f66.gif the pay maps back it up...the crushing is in SNE....this isn't to say Philly gets nothing...it's gets a good/very good hit of several inches but the "best" goes to LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 it's a Christmas miracle :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Can someone post a qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is why people that don't know whats going on should either not comment at all or wait until the run is finished. Someone just posted less than five minutes ago that its going OTS and to give up on it. I hope you feel stupid now What I really couldn't believe is 75% of the board wrote off the storm yesterday when issues were yet to be resolved with this pattern. It's not like this is a burp run or anything as the GFS has made this distinct trend wwd the past cycle. Stronger, further SW phasing with a sharper trough and more height rise on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, did not expect this. I thought I had seen it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What did the RGEM show this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Maybe the Euro wasn't wrong after all... I wonder if it keeps trending.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 http://www.meteo.psu...AST_12z/f66.gif the pay maps back it up...the crushing is in SNE....this isn't to say Philly gets nothing...it's gets a good/very good hit of several inches but the "best" goes to LI and SNE. now ur getting greedy...please give me a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Holy fooking shiattt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GFS is about as good as short range charts can look for NYC, SWCT, and CLI. A crushing blow. Feb 1978? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 .75+ PHL east 1-1.25 Coastal NJ,NYC, most of LI 1.25+ Central LI GFS needs some support, and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Maybe the Euro wasn't wrong after all... I wonder if it keeps trending.... Euro can't still be right though if it happens. Lost the storm and now the GFS is really playing the lead model in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 not an hitstoric storm by any means but gives everyone from the northern mid-atlantic on up warning criteria snowfall and considering how far we've come with this one we couldn't ask for much more. Now...if this thing came just 50 miles further west...we really get burried. Assuming this run gets at least some support from the other major globals sounds like winter storm watches/blizzard watches are in store for the afternoon package....at least for the Mt. Holly area. Upton probably waits till 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Alright guys, PLEASE try to keep the "all these idiots jumped off the bridge too soon" posts to a minimum. Lets try to be serious about this. It's one model run, we're still 60 hours out. Getting closer. Lets look at the rest of the 12Z suite. 00Z tonight will most likely be final. A lot of WV loop nowcast analysis will be required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Why does it always Happen that two hours before the euro were all anxiously waiting for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What a great run!! But any chance it was a blip? I don't want to be drawn in too much yet. Yes, good chance (>>50%) But it's wonderful news to have a major hit modeled in the short range. It means we're really close. Also validates intense model tracking and nowcasting for the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It'll be interesting to see how much more west the models continue to shift.. we still have several runs left before this puppy begins to bomb off the EC. The NW trend is alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 positive trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The 12z OP run is stronger and further west than any of its 06z ensemble members, which is significant to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS/NAM blend support moderate snow c-nj - NYC. Increasing chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 When would it start snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Euro can't still be right though if it happens. Lost the storm and now the GFS is really playing the lead model in my eyes. I wouldn't exactly say that. It might be exactly what happened last week, except in reverse. A 1-2 run fluke and then back all-in. Very interested in what the 12Z EC will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 now ur getting greedy...please give me a break No, I'm stating facts and not exaggerating what a model is showing. Philly's not getting crushed with snow. It's still a very good event...6-8 based on 10:1 is pretty damn good in a La Nina but it's not a crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 When would it start snowing? between 10am and 2pm sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I wouldn't exactly say that. It might be exactly what happened last week, except in reverse. A 1-2 run fluke and then back all-in. Very interested in what the 12Z EC will have. If 12z Euro shows similar outcome as the 12z GFS, are you buying a plane ticket home? Or are you already home for the Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I wouldn't exactly say that. It might be exactly what happened last week, except in reverse. A 1-2 run fluke and then back all-in. Very interested in what the 12Z EC will have. exactly what happen last week...in reverse order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I never expected this....not with that trough so far east....I'm still not sure I buy it, especially since the NAM outperformed the GFS so much on the last event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.