WeatherFox Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks. I believe that is a good sign for places to the north and east that the watch area in North Carolina was expanded to their west (significantly) While not relevant to this specific area, this was just issued by the NWS down south. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 927 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING... SNOW... OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS IT SPREADS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO BE AN SITUATION IN WHICH THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A MORE DIFFICULT TIME THAN USUAL IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM. AT THE CURRENT TIME... GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY... ODDS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 heres the 21z sref indiv qpf maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We're approaching 1,000 posts. Does someone want to start a new thread before the GFS rolls in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 heres the 21z sref indiv qpf maps I would take that with a spring in my step and a song in my heart lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good Christmas Eve Evening... 0Z NAM continued to trend westward, and gave 6-10" to me. But that was all due to "initialization problems." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 heres the 21z sref indiv qpf maps There was a time when the coast did not receive any QPF, how things can change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 do any mets think the gfs is really having " initiation errors" i cant see why if the storm is already onshore and the shortwave is in texas and is stronger than what was originally thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good Christmas Eve Evening... 0Z NAM continued to trend westward, and gave 6-10" to me. But that was all due to "initialization problems." Boy oh boy if this storm comes to fruition, we'll be talking about HPC's foolish statements for years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Boy oh boy if this storm comes to fruition, we'll be talking about HPC's foolish statements for years to come. You aren't anymore confident than earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FYI... Glenn coming up on phl17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 theres a new thread, this ones getting too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I started a new thread. Not sure if I have the 'mojo' for that or not, but I went ahead with it anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREFs are incredible. Even further west than 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 heres some qpf numbers for pa spots up to 60 hr ukt .15 kom .31 phl .36 pne .45 nxx .37 abe .06 rdg .01 ptw .14 dyl .33 lns .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You aren't anymore confident than earlier? Not sure I follow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I was just looking back at the 850 mb charts. At one point the wind speeds at that level get as high as the 75 - 80 knot range in extreme southeastern new hampshire Yeah, looks pretty intense. 80kts at 850mb just above and east of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not sure I follow... Do you think the end-result with be biased towards the American models or compromised in the middle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM at 24 looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 36 hour RGEM...here she comes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 11 out of 21 members give NYC east over (some well) an 1" of QPF...thats impressive. heres the 21z sref indiv qpf maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Do you think the end-result with be biased towards the American models or compromised in the middle? Riptide, I believe the GFS has been leading the trend back west and we have now seen other important short term models like the NAM, RGEM, MM5, SREFs, catch onto this as well. I expect the Euro to trend west from its 12z position; it may not be as impressive as I think tonight's 00z GFS will look, but we'll see. The Euro dropped its bomb idea a couple days ago, but it wouldn't take much for a reversal back to where it was (monster intensification offshore to sub 970mb, like the current GFS). Overall I'm very impressed w/ the trends since yesterday. Improving H5 set up w/ more trough sharpness, a more consolidated phase further to the SW, which in turn pumps higher heights on the east coast and directs the sfc low nwd. Let's see what the 00z GFS has to say - I expect big things! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Very tough to extrapolate totals given models are still trending. Not even sure the WRF is showing full potential. SREF showing near a 50% chance of 1.00 liquid just east of PHL. Given the situation, many forecasters (Including Myself) will be playing catch up. Very impressive wind enery also as the storm phases Wind Soundings are scary. Could see gusts close to 50 MPH even inland. ERIC Like you mentioned, still trending. Playing catch up. Have to watch out for more trending west in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey folks.. Head on over to the new thread. Part 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 24hr rgem has the energy from the northern stream pushed back into Oklahoma and the trof with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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