NaoPos Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 bueller.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM was just playing catch up to the GFS, and there we go. I think NYC is def in the game for some accumulating snows, whether it be a little or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I predict the NWS puts up a Winter Storm Watch in the morning All depends who's working, they may want to see the 12Z runs in the morning but agree if the 0Z GFS follows or anywhere near the NAM putting up watches would be the right thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HUGE start to 00z.... keeping my fingers crossed with ggem, gfs, and euro... Given the h5 setup the models *should* be showing major numbers tonight. just finished a bottle of gold label with the family... lets do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Any word on "initialization errors" yet? I can't wait to read tomorrow's discussions, assuming the rest of 00z follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Earlier from HPC. They might have to play catch up. At least I hope so. The NAM was just playing catch up to the GFS, and there we go. I think NYC is def in the game for some accumulating snows, whether it be a little or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NYNJPAWEATHER - ANALYSIS: "This NAM run is HUGE so far. It validates the idea of a significant snowfall along the coast and is an answer to the claim of bad data. As far as I can find from the HPC, there were no initialization problems. So this is the real deal here as far as a NAM solution. Nothing tainted. I don't go by the QPF thought, look at 850 MB to 500 MB, classic major snowfall signals for Philadelphia and New York City." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It certainly has been a wild ride that is for sure, I can tell you I am a bit burned out after tracking this thing all week, I can only imagine how you are feeling. Merry Christmas Tony I think what we all been through this week Ron EVERYONE should be doing play by play I think they earned it I am sure we all lost a lot of sleep this week. To this forecaster it looks like a decent snowfall for the NYC Metro Area !! , About time, it's a shame it didn't come for Christmas day. Lets see what the big boys ( NWS ) offices do in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RIP Cape Cod... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the RGEM shows this in about 20 minutes, then there is a reason to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 IF THIS is what the GFS depicts in an hour or so, but 100 miles further west, Long island will see FEET of snow! Cape Cod shows 20-30"+ of snow in this graphic! RIP Cape Cod... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the RGEM shows this in about 20 minutes, then there is a reason to get excited. Are you the crinch that stole..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh and can people please stop expecting a blizzard with every snowstorm. A 3-6" hit that the NAM is showing is a pretty darn good snowfall for Philly Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is this a Miller A/B hybrid.. The depiction of the snowfall reminds me kinda of 1978.. Please don't crucify me.. I could be completely wrong, but didn't eastern Long Island and the Cape get destroyed with hellish winds and feet of snow in that event? I believe though that event was a pure Miller B.. IF THIS is what the GFS depicts in an hour or so, but 100 miles further west, Long island will see FEET of snow! Cape Cod shows 20-30"+ of snow in this graphic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 IF THIS is what the GFS depicts in an hour or so, but 100 miles further west, Long island will see FEET of snow! Cape Cod shows 20-30"+ of snow in this graphic! cape cod might have mixing issues on this run. but i dont think long island will ever be in danger of mixing, we are far enough west. maybe the twin forks (if it came further west) but who cares nobody really lives there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It certainly has been a wild ride that is for sure, I can tell you I am a bit burned out after tracking this thing all week, I can only imagine how you are feeling. Merry Christmas Tony Hey Ron.. Yup a crazy week, glad to see everyone here on the board, We have had a good handle on the system all week, we had 4 to 8 inches for our road crews since Wednesday morning, backed off a little yesterday, not going to need any market changes thank god overnight, I rather have to go higher then lower with our accumulation forecast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is this a Miller A/B hybrid.. The depiction of the snowfall reminds me kinda of 1978.. Please don't crucify me.. I could be completely wrong, but didn't eastern Long Island and the Cape get destroyed with hellish winds and feet of snow in that event? I believe though that event was a pure Miller B.. This is pretty much pure Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Any word on "initialization errors" yet? Yes. The model initialized at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is pretty much pure Miller A. I thought Miller A start in the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't know. The fact that SC and New England both get hard hit tells me this is already a potent system even further to the south, especially than a Miller B would tend to be. If anything it is just more of a sharp coast to inland gradient due to the further offshore track than a typical noreaster type storm Is this a Miller A/B hybrid.. The depiction of the snowfall reminds me kinda of 1978.. Please don't crucify me.. I could be completely wrong, but didn't eastern Long Island and the Cape get destroyed with hellish winds and feet of snow in that event? I believe though that event was a pure Miller B.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I thought Miller A start in the Gulf? It is a Miller A because there is no primary low, it forms independently. The classic Miller A does come from the gulf though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A question for the Meteorologists. Could it possibly be that the higher resolution models are the ones having problems with this storm and the lower resolution of the GFS is actually helping it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I was just looking back at the 850 mb charts. At one point the wind speeds at that level get as high as the 75 - 80 knot range in extreme southeastern new hampshire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I thought Miller A start in the Gulf? A Miller B involves a primary running the spine of the Apps, then "jumping" a secondary off the NC-ish coast that takes over as the primary. Miller B = redevelopment. This is a STJ s/w that phases with the arctic jet leading to a bowling ball running the eastern seaboard. Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Are you the crinch that stole..? Grinch...sorry I had to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If we get a deep snowcover, lows over parts of Long Island Wednesday could be in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 cape cod might have mixing issues on this run. but i dont think long island will ever be in danger of mixing, we are far enough west. maybe the twin forks (if it came further west) but who cares nobody really lives there... Cape Cod is probably going to change to rain for part of the storm if the track is as far west as the GFS shows...strong east winds will make the surface too warm even if 850s stay below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 While not relevant to this specific area, this was just issued by the NWS down south. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 927 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING... SNOW... OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS IT SPREADS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO BE AN SITUATION IN WHICH THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A MORE DIFFICULT TIME THAN USUAL IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM. AT THE CURRENT TIME... GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY... ODDS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not necessarily. It could be like 12/30/00 where there is no initial low/redevelopment, just energy which hits the coast, rapid cyclogenesis and a low that bombs out. or Jan '05 where a potent clipper redevelops off the coast into a major noreaster. A Miller B involves a primary running the spine of the Apps, then "jumping" a secondary off the NC-ish coast that takes over as the primary. Miller B = redevelopment. This is a STJ s/w that phases with the arctic jet leading to a bowling ball running the eastern seaboard. Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh and can people please stop expecting a blizzard with every snowstorm. A 3-6" hit that the NAM is showing is a pretty darn good snowfall for Philly Metro. post of the thread, best post in days on here. Everyone storm will not be a blizzard giving feet. Stop extrapolating everything you see into a biblical storm. Right now nothing wrong with 3-6 inchers with more up to NYC but seeing people act like its a sureshot at feet, stop the hype please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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