dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 im comparing the 18z gfs to 0z nam just solely going off hgt line, and they look pretty close agreed. the 546 line at 30 again, (like 18z) is almost in the GOM... EDIT: apologies, make that the 552. There has been some Patron in play over here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Closed low at H5 in NE OH at 30 hrs. Phasing occurring SW for sure of the 18z NAM position. Trough sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The surface low is more strung out, so I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't a blizzard...however it should be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The trough is definitely digging more, and it's less positively tilted. I wonder what will be "wrong" with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 that 850 0 line way into the gulf is always interesting to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It should start bombing out shortly. The strength of the vort max is starting to spread the height contours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here we goooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 one difference between nam and gfs, nam looks to be a good bit slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, what's up now, EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br />one difference between nam and gfs, nam looks to be a good bit slower<br /><br /><br /><br />Yep. We need this thing to go negative quickly before it escapes too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It should start bombing out shortly. The strength of the vort max is starting to spread the height contours oooh yeah- from the looks of the 36hr panels its gonna be a HUGE hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's getting sheared out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 oooh yeah- from the looks of the 36hr panels its gonna be a HUGE hit. Wow, here it comes ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's getting sheared out now Not what we wanted to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's getting sheared out now what time frame? looks pretty good at 36hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 48 it's very close to being a big hit. I've never quite seen a 500 mb set up like this before. It's interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 48 it's trying to hook back to the coast...broad sub-988 low extending from 100-150 miles east of ACY-HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 51 it's a moderate hit for NYC metro. Big hit eastern long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 42 doesn't look too nice....will probably be very close to a big storm for dc-NYC....prob a bit east tho. Bos still in it I thjnk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's getting sheared out now why is all the precip off shore with the upper levels looking like they do? it makes no sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 54 good bit further west..phl into mod precip as well as nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Even though its still slightly east, the fact that this run is even further west than the "errored" 12z and 18z nam is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's a miss. Closer, tho. its not a miss at all your getting hit good at hr 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Same at 54. It is right on top of benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 through hr 54 phl over .25 nyc over .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 54 goes boom! 970 low east of LI, heavy snow NYC east, moderate snow in all of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let the run play out. Is that so hard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 54 good bit further west..phl into mod precip as well as nyc Wow I thought it was going to miss east. Hooking back in toward the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 54 good bit further west..phl into mod precip as well as nyc i still think the surface depiction is off on the NAM...I would say at 6Z or 12Z the NAM will show more precip on the western side of the storm...to me the surface doesnt match h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Way WEST on this run about 75 miles from previous run with the moisture. Blizzard conditions for the coast and maybe much of New Jersey at 51 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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