weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21z sref comes west a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GOOD EVENING BOYS. SREFs well west of 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Srefs are major hit again. But we're gonna be told to throw out because it has some 18z data in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Show me an official statement that HPC threw out 18z GFS. Also, Why would JMA and Nogaps come significantly west also? That's what weird here. Yeah, a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GOOD EVENING BOYS. SREFs well west of 15z. There must be a really tight clustering, no way you can discount that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GOOD EVENING BOYS. SREFs well west of 15z. A good way to start John! We need to keep Comitto updated.. I don't think he'll be by a computer tonite.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 When an event is close, under 48 hours, the spread on ensembles are supposed to get smaller and smaller. That's the point. Ensembles being all clustered is not a concern. The euro ensembles having such a fairly large spread is odd. The event is so close. Ensembles should not be disagreeing too much. What's weird is a small intra-model spread and a huge inter-model spread. That's almost unheard of. And it doesn't make much physical sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Srefs are major hit again. But we're gonna be told to throw out because it has some 18z data in it. I'll feel a lot better if the 03z look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From Steve D.....not sure if it has been posted or now Over the past 12 hours, more data has become available to suggest the potential for a significant snow storm Sunday evening through Monday is growing. There is a great amount of uncertainty with this forecast, more so than I have ever seen with any other winter storm forecast. Model data is corrupted. Disturbances are stronger than forecasted. And to really make all of this interesting, not even the best ranked models can be trusted at this time. However, I have been tracking the latest observations and keep an eye on this storm, as promised; and I am currently elevating the threat for a region wide winter storm to moderate based on the latest upper level observations that are coming in. At this time, I am not changing the going forecast however if trends continue changes will have to be made for a more extensive winter storm impact for Philadelphia and New York City. I will continue to monitor the situation by the hour and will update if changes are needed to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The shortwave is closed at hour 6 on the NAM...Was not closed at 18z at the time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 .25" line rides the I-81 corridor from hr63-hr78. .50" line creeps into the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 so far 0z nam looks closer to 18z gfs than 18z nam, but maybe im just seeing things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 .25" line rides the I-81 corridor from hr63-hr78. .50" line creeps into the Poconos. for what run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey arent' you stormchaser from that other board? You and robbs are the best on there. No, ive not seen any reasoning for why hpc is tossing anything, other than corruption, whatever that means. Yep, that's me and thank you for the kind words. My personal opinion is HPC's just looking for a reason to remain w/ their current forecast until we've seen a full cycle of runs w/ a hit in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't think the NAM is digging into the GOM as much, here...it's still early but I do not like that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep, that's me and thank you for the kind words. My personal opinion is HPC's just looking for a reason to remain w/ their current forecast until we've seen a full cycle of runs w/ a hit in the Northeast. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't think the NAM is digging into the GOM as much, here...it's still early but I do not like that fact. Reply thats what it looked like to me too comparing it to 18z nam. but then i compared to 18z gfs and it looks closer to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 for what run? 21z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 im comparing the 18z gfs to 0z nam just solely going off hgt line, and they look pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Stronger with the low at 18 compared to 24 at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z NAM looks a bit better than its 18z run at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is the 0z nam using anything connected to the gfs errors earlier? Or can we now start putting that notion to rest hopefully? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 IS it me, or does the northern stream dig into central OK as compared to how it was being shown on the last few days in eatsern OK? through 18.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_018l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is the 0z nam using anything connected to the gfs errors earlier? Or can we now start putting that notion to rest hopefully? There were never any errors to begin with in my opinion, at least not enough to mask the obvious trend of improving trough sharpness and s/w strength over the past 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 24hrs we're phasing slightly SW of the 18z position of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 30 has lgt precip almost to dc...broad area of 1008 low pressure off se coast looks to be about 50-100 miles east of savannah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There were never any errors to begin with in my opinion, at least not enough to mask the obvious trend of improving trough sharpness and s/w strength over the past 24 hrs. Sorry and this is meant in kindness within the spirit of Christmas, but :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS and 0z NAM are very similar at H5 at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Closed low at H5 in NE OH at 30 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's nice about the NAM is that the strongest piece of energy is still digging it down rather than shearing out and escaping northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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