NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It pays to be conservative right now. No one wants to alarm people over Xmas weekend. There are many people who are visiting NYC for Christmas and going back home Sunday. 3-6 inches delays flights. 13-16 inches closes the airport for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i can't tell you how many GREAT storms began with local network forecasts like that when 48+ hours out. On the day of the 2/6 blizzard, NBC10 mentioned flurries possible Wednesday (2/10). On Sunday they mentioned a few inches. It ended up being another big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Those 18z GFS ensemble members all must have bad data errors, since they all match up with the OP. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chagrin Falls Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 5" of snow in NYC at the very most. I personally think the troubles with the models are caused by the change in the long-wave pattern over the Northern Hemisphere. While operational runs and individual ensemble members have been showing various extremes and everything in between, super ensembles have been much more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 5" of snow in NYC at the very most. I personally think the troubles with the models are caused by the change in the long-wave pattern over the Northern Hemisphere. While operational runs and individual ensemble members have been showing various extremes and everything in between, super ensembles have been much more consistent. That is still a lot more than most were expecting over the last 2-3 days once models starting losing the storm. Many people will gladly take 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Those 18z GFS ensemble members all must have bad data errors, since they all match up with the OP. LOL Somewhat paradoxically, I might feel better about the GFS if a few more ensemble members resembled the offshore solutions of the GGEM/Euro/UK etc. But the fact that all of the ensemble perturbations result in huge hits suggests the possibility of a rather large initial error. The GFS ensemble spread is too small considering the large inter-model spread. To me that STINKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here she comes. I think the 12Z computer models underestimated the strength of this storm yesterday and how sharp the trough is. Great graphic. Please update in the evening. If that short wave in the Dakota's dives to the gulf and energizes the gulf wave we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did HPC officially toss the 18z gfs or are we still going off some guy that said Lee Goldberg mentioning hpc throwing out "the run." What run we don't even know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where's the NGM when you need it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where's the NGM when you need it? right where we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where's the NGM when you need it? Given the synoptic setup my guess is the NGM would have been too far northwest on this event if it was still run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not trolling, but I have a feeling there will be alot of upset people after the 00z runs tonight . Bad initialization on 12z and 18z runs, awful big jump in everybodys favor for these runs to be legit, hope I'm wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not trolling, but I have a feeling there will be alot of upset people after the 00z runs tonight . Bad initialization on 12z and 18z runs, awful big jump in everybodys favor for these runs to be legit, hope I'm wrong! gut feelings need not be posted. Actual analysis that isn't already posted would be helpful. If you've got nothing, then save your time and energy please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 0z NAM is next up soon and presumably (hopefully) no initialization issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not trolling, but I have a feeling there will be alot of upset people after the 00z runs tonight . Bad initialization on 12z and 18z runs, awful big jump in everybodys favor for these runs to be legit, hope I'm wrong! I was thinking the same thing but I'm not so sure anymore...some of the mesoscale models are run off the NAM but quite a few of those are indicating hits and they are west of even where the NAM was....the GFS may come east of where it has been and be weaker, but it wouldn't surprise me to still see some sort of hit for NYC and NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No doubt, I understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 gut feelings need not be posted. Actual analysis that isn't already posted would be helpful. If you've got nothing, then save your time and energy please. Dude, relax, its a regional thread, its not he just said he felt that way for no reason, he has at least some reason. Anywho, it very well could be the case, eduggs problem with the ensembles all being west has some merit. The time between the 18z's and 0z's are killing me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The more I look at this situation the more I'm convinced the last two GFS runs and their ensembles are completely tainted. All other guidance is further east, including the NAM, which may have had some minor errors as well. If the GFS was the only model showing an OTS miss, everyone would disregard it. NONE of the 00z or 06z ensemble members were a hit. And then suddenly at 12z and 18z, EVERY ONE of them was. Statistically, that's almost impossible. And it seems very unlikely that the initialization errors are just a coincidence. A few of the hi-res models also show a great hit, but they utilize GFS initialization. The 0z GFS almost has to come east. The only thing that gives me some pause is the Euro ensemble spread and the 12z JMA/Nogaps runs. But it seems very likely to me 0z consensus will show an offshore track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dude, relax, its a regional thread, its not he just said he felt that way for no reason, he has at least some reason. Anywho, it very well could be the case, eduggs problem with the ensembles all being west has some merit. The time between the 18z's and 0z's are killing me right now. I thought my post was very calm. People coming on here saying my gut feeling is this or that is not helpful for discussion, I'm sorry this comes off as in a negative way to you. And my point was that if there is an actual meteorological reason (which there isn't) we'd all love to hear it. Too much mindless posting on here during storms and it can get quite frustrating. The worst is people making calls for specific model outcomes before its even half way to the time frame of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The more I look at this situation the more I'm convinced the last two GFS runs and their ensembles are completely tainted. All other guidance is further east, including the NAM, which may have had some minor errors as well. If the GFS was the only model showing an OTS miss, everyone would disregard it. NONE of the 00z or 06z ensemble members were a hit. And then suddenly at 12z and 18z, EVERY ONE of them was. Statistically, that's almost impossible. And it seems very unlikely that the initialization errors are just a coincidence. A few of the hi-res models also show a great hit, but they utilize GFS initialization. The 0z GFS almost has to come east. The only thing that gives me some pause is the Euro ensemble spread and the 12z JMA/Nogaps runs. But it seems very likely to me 0z consensus will show an offshore track. exactly- how is it possible that EVERY ensemble member showed the EXACT same solution....my hunch is the GFS will move 200 miles east and match the euro...and you will know if this is the case by 42 hours on the 0Z nam...if its east the GFS will be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dude, relax, its a regional thread, its not he just said he felt that way for no reason, he has at least some reason. Anywho, it very well could be the case, eduggs problem with the ensembles all being west has some merit. The time between the 18z's and 0z's are killing me right now. 18z GFS ensembles being west means nothing to me if the the OP is west and wound up because of model errors. Those would be extended to the ensembles as well. They could be right for all we know but the ensemble support really doesn't hold much weight with me at this point, 0z model runs do however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Show me an official statement that HPC threw out 18z GFS. Also, Why would JMA and Nogaps come significantly west also? That's what weird here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS ensembles being west means nothing to me if the the OP is west and wound up because of model errors. Those would be extended to the ensembles as well. They could be right for all we know but the ensemble support really doesn't hold much weight with me at this point, 0z model runs do however. I think were on the same page, not 100% though. I think the fact that all the ens.being west actually raises a red flag with modeling issues. Normally with the ens. you'd have a wide range of outcomes, not so much with the 18z gfs's ens. I haven't actually seen the ens yet but from what eduggs said, there is cause for concern. Eh well, here's to a good 00z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Show me an official statement that HPC threw out 18z GFS. Also, Why would JMA and Nogaps come significantly west also? That's what weird here. Do they use gfs initialization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 When an event is close, under 48 hours, the spread on ensembles are supposed to get smaller and smaller. That's the point. Ensembles being all clustered is not a concern. The euro ensembles having such a fairly large spread is odd. The event is so close. Ensembles should not be disagreeing too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not trolling, but I have a feeling there will be alot of upset people after the 00z runs tonight . Bad initialization on 12z and 18z runs, awful big jump in everybodys favor for these runs to be legit, hope I'm wrong! I thought my post was very calm. People coming on here saying my gut feeling is this or that is not helpful for discussion, I'm sorry this comes off as in a negative way to you. And my point was that if there is an actual meteorological reason (which there isn't) we'd all love to hear it. Too much mindless posting on here during storms and it can get quite frustrating. The worst is people making calls for specific model outcomes before its even half way to the time frame of interest. While perhaps he could have expressed it more effectively, there was a rational or logical basis supporting his "feeling," namely the GFS' sudden dramatic changes (including all of its ensembles), coupled with HPC's disclosure of the initialization errors, which until the 00Z NAM and GFS becomes available, remains unclear as to the extent of their significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think were on the same page, not 100% though. I think the fact that all the ens.being west actually raises a red flag with modeling issues. Normally with the ens. you'd have a wide range of outcomes, not so much with the 18z gfs's ens. I haven't actually seen the ens yet but from what eduggs said, there is cause for concern. Eh well, here's to a good 00z suite there shouldnt be that much of a spread at all 48 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Do they use gfs initialization? I don't think the JMA does. It's Japanese. Nogaps, I'm not sure. But my guess is no and navy has their own parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 im not sure we can use them or not, but the 21z srefs are even further west, brings .5 line bout 50 miles past phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At least we should be getting some answers to this whole mess soon. And either way one model camp will bust one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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