Quakertown needs snow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The excitement in this thread is awesome. I just got out of church..judging by the gefs means somebody was listening. yeah we just home also and then i checked out the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I guess its common sense being closer in time to 18z than 6z, but current conditions match up so much better with the 18z models. It's coming west, don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 yeah gkrangers and tombo where texting me about the gfs while i was at church Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's coming west, don't worry. I mean yea, it really looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 While I obviously don't live in this area, I'm staying in Marlton, NJ for vacation until about New Years. I wouldn't mind a consensus as if we do end up having a substantial snow storm come in I'm going to end up having to start working tomorrow afternoon media wise. Even if this storm does not materialize, this will easily be one of the most memorable storms of for me just because of the constantly changing model output so close to the event time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12/19/95 was amazing in Port Jeff...LGA had 7" on the ground the morning of the 20th and I had a coating of freezing drizzle / sleet...thought it was over / no internet (for me) back then / relied on TWC...mixed precip transitioned to light..then moderate to heavy snow the balance of the day...finished with 11". About what we got in Westchester too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The excitement in this thread is awesome. I just got out of church..judging by the gefs means somebody was listening. I get out of Temple tomorrow at 11 a.m. Will I be excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 (I posted this on the main discussion site a few minutes ago) WHAT AN AMAZING DAY AND WEEK! I've never seen anything like this before...such a difference in models so close to a storm, AFTER a flip-flop of both EURO and GFS! Try attempting to make a forecast on TV on such an important weekend. As for meteorological stuff, we get a special product at NBC10 in Philadelphia called eCast. This is a product from AER in Mass. that creates a MOS based on the EURO ensembles. For example, it gives the POP for every 12 hour period of 01, .10. and .50. A POP of 30 means that 30% of the 51 ensemble members had more than that amount of precip during the period in question. It has had a great track record over the past several years for us. Curiously, it has had surprisingly low POPs for PHL this week. Even when the operational EURO was hammering us 3 days in a row, the POPs for .50"+ never got over 16%. Today's POPs are 57% for .01", 22% for .10", and 2% for .50"+. That was based on the 00z run. The eCast maps from the 12z run show the storm track very close to the operational, and precip farther west (but still less than .25" at ACY, and less than .10 at PHL. If we have the same issues with the 00z runs, I will not be able to sleep tonight (working the 10 and 11pm tomorrow). My mind goes back to Jan, 2000, when everyone was so sure the storm would stay way offshore. But the radar echoes were way farther west than even the 12 hour forecasts were, so I was able to predict snow up here when other forecasts were still for "partly sunny" (still had no idea we'd get so much). This has taught me to never brag about a forecast before the event, and never say never until the event is over. Glenn +1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 buffkit going with 25.8 for phl http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_kphl.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSeNJ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe too far west for some. It's coming west, don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 buffkit going with 25.8 for phl http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kphl.dat stop this madness tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Unreal... That would be be a 6-10" snowfall and the mets locally have written it off already that's amazing, that would even give us one helluva storm all the way in NEPA.... Still planning on traveling sunday night from the shore to Scranton...that will change if this trend keeps up. An amazing day. I'm working tomorrow so I'll be in touch with our met on duty to see what they are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 buffkit going with 25.8 for phl http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_kphl.dat going with 14 for LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe too far west for some. "We haven't had that spirit hee since (December 26) 1969". Eagles, Hotel California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 (I posted this on the main discussion site a few minutes ago) WHAT AN AMAZING DAY AND WEEK! I've never seen anything like this before...such a difference in models so close to a storm, AFTER a flip-flop of both EURO and GFS! Try attempting to make a forecast on TV on such an important weekend. As for meteorological stuff, we get a special product at NBC10 in Philadelphia called eCast. This is a product from AER in Mass. that creates a MOS based on the EURO ensembles. For example, it gives the POP for every 12 hour period of 01, .10. and .50. A POP of 30 means that 30% of the 51 ensemble members had more than that amount of precip during the period in question. It has had a great track record over the past several years for us. Curiously, it has had surprisingly low POPs for PHL this week. Even when the operational EURO was hammering us 3 days in a row, the POPs for .50"+ never got over 16%. Today's POPs are 57% for .01", 22% for .10", and 2% for .50"+. That was based on the 00z run. The eCast maps from the 12z run show the storm track very close to the operational, and precip farther west (but still less than .25" at ACY, and less than .10 at PHL. If we have the same issues with the 00z runs, I will not be able to sleep tonight (working the 10 and 11pm tomorrow). My mind goes back to Jan, 2000, when everyone was so sure the storm would stay way offshore. But the radar echoes were way farther west than even the 12 hour forecasts were, so I was able to predict snow up here when other forecasts were still for "partly sunny" (still had no idea we'd get so much). This has taught me to never brag about a forecast before the event, and never say never until the event is over. Glenn Great post Glenn and thanks for explaining the eCast. I heard you mention it before but I was unsure what it was. Get some rest . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 when do 21z srefs come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeNJWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe too far west for some. Bufkit is 4.2" at ACY with about an inch of slop/zr, followed by snow. Millville is about a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 when do 21z srefs come out? Just after 830 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lets hope there is no radio show tonight *crosses fingers* Its kind of ironic that the 18z gfs showed exactly what the euro was hinting at a few days ago when certain forecasters (HPC) were hugging it, yet its supposedly being thrown out now...hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lets hope there is no radio show tonight *crosses fingers* Its kind of ironic that the 18z gfs showed exactly what the euro was hinting at a few days ago when certain forecasters (HPC) were hugging it, yet its supposedly being thrown out now...hmmmm They might be right. But I agree with Glenn... I've never seen such a massive model difference two days before a potential storm. This is utterly crazy. The GFS could indeed be off its rocker... but with such small and dynamic systems as the one in the southern plains involved, its hard to know really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Storm canceled. Lets hope there is no radio show tonight *crosses fingers* Its kind of ironic that the 18z gfs showed exactly what the euro was hinting at a few days ago when certain forecasters (HPC) were hugging it, yet its supposedly being thrown out now...hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowisgood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is there a site that has a tutorial on how to do bufkits? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 when do 21z srefs come out? you can't look at the 21z srefs either. Becasue that is based on 18z nam data which was tossed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Tombo, was the 18z gfs tossed as well? I know the 12z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Tombo, was the 18z gfs tossed as well? I know the 12z was. from what i have heard i believe so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 low and north stream depicted well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 low and north stream depicted well i believe the key piece in the northern stream to watch is the one little notch coming into nw nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 you can't look at the 21z srefs either. Becasue that is based on 18z nam data which was tossed to. I still think we need to watch it anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 (I posted this on the main discussion site a few minutes ago) WHAT AN AMAZING DAY AND WEEK! I've never seen anything like this before...such a difference in models so close to a storm, AFTER a flip-flop of both EURO and GFS! Try attempting to make a forecast on TV on such an important weekend. As for meteorological stuff, we get a special product at NBC10 in Philadelphia called eCast. This is a product from AER in Mass. that creates a MOS based on the EURO ensembles. For example, it gives the POP for every 12 hour period of 01, .10. and .50. A POP of 30 means that 30% of the 51 ensemble members had more than that amount of precip during the period in question. It has had a great track record over the past several years for us. Curiously, it has had surprisingly low POPs for PHL this week. Even when the operational EURO was hammering us 3 days in a row, the POPs for .50"+ never got over 16%. Today's POPs are 57% for .01", 22% for .10", and 2% for .50"+. That was based on the 00z run. The eCast maps from the 12z run show the storm track very close to the operational, and precip farther west (but still less than .25" at ACY, and less than .10 at PHL. If we have the same issues with the 00z runs, I will not be able to sleep tonight (working the 10 and 11pm tomorrow). My mind goes back to Jan, 2000, when everyone was so sure the storm would stay way offshore. But the radar echoes were way farther west than even the 12 hour forecasts were, so I was able to predict snow up here when other forecasts were still for "partly sunny" (still had no idea we'd get so much). This has taught me to never brag about a forecast before the event, and never say never until the event is over. Glenn Good luck the next couple of days...this is arguably one of toughest forecasts out there. Jan '00, December 29 '00 both come to mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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