NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 5

[weatherweather]

18z gfs ensembles even more bullish than 12z

[LVblizzard]

A 979 mb low in an ensemble mean is definitely an amazing consensus.

[blazess556]

WOW at 18 GFS ensembles. WOW

[thedude11]

Can you guys post a map of the ENS?? thanks fellas!

[NortheastPAWx]

Are the ENS out on any sites right now?

[simpsonsbuff]

Are the ENS out on any sites right now?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html

[weatherweather]

[A-L-E-X]

Its on the main thread "all aboard santa's bipolar express" (I love that thread subtitle btw)

But I dont think that's for the whole run-- would like someone to post the individual members so I can computer qpf for each and put them in here.

Can someone post them from Allen's site? I cant get it to load for some reason. Thanks!

[LVblizzard]

[Riptide]

I don't care what anyone says, no model error can account for this type of model/ensemble consensus 48 hours out.

[hurricaneschwartz]

(I posted this on the main discussion site a few minutes ago)

WHAT AN AMAZING DAY AND WEEK!

I've never seen anything like this before...such a difference in models so close to a storm, AFTER a flip-flop of both EURO and GFS! Try attempting to make a forecast on TV on such an important weekend.

As for meteorological stuff, we get a special product at NBC10 in Philadelphia called eCast. This is a product from AER in Mass. that creates a MOS based on the EURO ensembles. For example, it gives the POP for every 12 hour period of 01, .10. and .50. A POP of 30 means that 30% of the 51 ensemble members had more than that amount of precip during the period in question. It has had a great track record over the past several years for us.

Curiously, it has had surprisingly low POPs for PHL this week. Even when the operational EURO was hammering us 3 days in a row, the POPs for .50"+ never got over 16%. Today's POPs are 57% for .01", 22% for .10", and 2% for .50"+. That was based on the 00z run.

The eCast maps from the 12z run show the storm track very close to the operational, and precip farther west (but still less than .25" at ACY, and less than .10 at PHL.

If we have the same issues with the 00z runs, I will not be able to sleep tonight (working the 10 and 11pm tomorrow).

My mind goes back to Jan, 2000, when everyone was so sure the storm would stay way offshore. But the radar echoes were way farther west than even the 12 hour forecasts were, so I was able to predict snow up here when other forecasts were still for "partly sunny" (still had no idea we'd get so much). This has taught me to never brag about a forecast before the event, and never say never until the event is over.

Glenn

[RowanBrandon]

Just got out of church. Seems like God was listening to me!

[HSNN4]

Well if the 0z models are anything like the 12Z and 18Z models look for the local NWS offices to post watches in the morning for sunday into monday.

[JCsnow17]

I was just thinking, what if the 0z gfs and nam are west? What wil hpc think then?

[NortheastPAWx]

Can't wait for the individuals to confirm. I still think this far in won't see much at all (History argues a sharp cutoff back here), but things keep getting interesting.

[Rtd208]

Model errors.

I was just thinking, what if the 0z gfs and nam are west? What wil hpc think then?

[blizzardof09]

i would like to add something here and would appreciate some input as well. the models i feel are acting the same way but reversed from last week, the euro last week had to ots solution where the gfs kept forecasting the snowstorm, except for the euro's hiccup on thursday it was pretty consistent and we saw the outcome. this week however, the euro was showing the monster coastal for several days lost it yesterday and today and now the gfs has continued its nw trend to a monster coastal from being ots and the euro is ots now, so it has had another hiccup i think, what im tryig to get at is i have a feeling the euro ensembles/operational models will probably shift back to its big coastal solution. reason being is that the gfs being a notorious suppressive model is showing a big low and was "consistently" trending nw, the euro has pretty much to me all of sudden went to ots after being a big hit with its ensembles that have better track record than the operational run. i think the gfs in this case( hope im not getting let down by the gfs) is on to something and is onto the stronger s/w and the euro is having problems temporarily. i think the hpc is asking for it throwing out these runs but we will see i guess

[weatherweather]

fwiw 21z ruc way closer to 12z/18z gfs/nam than 0z/6z nam/gfs

for comparison, 21z ruc at 15h

18z gfs 18h

6z gfs 30h

[eduggs]

I could be mistaken, but I don't believe HPC is completely disregarding the GFS ensembles. They even appeared to suggest they had some usefulness... but they may have been referring to old ensemble runs as they pertain to continuity.

[jrodd321]

Ensemble mean. Dear God.

[Harbourton]

Here she comes. I think the 12Z computer models underestimated the strength of this storm yesterday and how sharp the trough is.

[Isotherm]

I don't have time to look now but has HPC provided reasoning for why they're discarding every model run that shows a hit? Is it just the vague "initialization errors". Oh well, if the 00z runs remain consistent which I think they will, should be interesting to see what they pull out next. The GFS has been steadily improving at H5 since last night, and other models have followed suite. What is this a model-wide infectious disease? Honestly I never recall this happening where HPC simply tosses runs at their discretion.

[bates]

I don't have time to look now but has HPC provided reasoning for why they're discarding every model run that shows a hit? Is it just the vague "initialization errors". Oh well, if the 00z runs remain consistent which I think they will, should be interesting to see what they pull out next. The GFS has been steadily improving at H5 since last night, and other models have followed suite. What is this a model-wide infectious disease? Honestly I never recall this happening where HPC simply tosses runs at their discretion.

Hey arent' you stormchaser from that other board? You and robbs are the best on there. No, ive not seen any reasoning for why hpc is tossing anything, other than corruption, whatever that means.

[Kicking Up A Storm]

Early on, we began our ascend. We saw the potential. It was hyped as the best, fastest roller coaster known to man. But as the ride continued, we were let down by a disappointing descent. Oh, but what's this? There's another hill to climb? I feel the euphoria gathering as we get to the top - although I'm not certain if this will peter out like our first chance and finally put an end to this ride and the hype that went along with it, or if the euphoria will continue to build as we swoop down the hill at near record breaking speeds, and by doing so somewhat justify the early hype. What I do know, though, is that this has been the strangest ride I have ever been on. At times I have felt butter flies at the expectation, a crushing sense of disappointment at what felt like a sickening defeat, and now rising expectations.

In any case, I'm Kicking Up a Storm. Merry Christmas

[MJO812]

18z GFS ensemble members are all hits.

http://www.meteo.psu...NE_18z/f54.html

[Big Jims Videos]

18z GFS ensemble members are all hits.

http://www.meteo.psu...NE_18z/f54.html

that's amazing, that would even give us one helluva storm all the way in NEPA....

Still planning on traveling sunday night from the shore to Scranton...that will change if this trend keeps up.

An amazing day. I'm working tomorrow so I'll be in touch with our met on duty to see what they are thinking.

[Quakertown needs snow]

tomorrow is going to be so interesting

[earthlight]

The excitement in this thread is awesome. I just got out of church..judging by the gefs means somebody was listening.

[chademer07]

The excitement in this thread is awesome. I just got out of church..judging by the gefs means somebody was listening.

I was trying to check the GFS and american while I was in church.......

[Quakertown needs snow]

The excitement in this thread is awesome. I just got out of church..judging by the gefs means somebody was listening.

yeah we just home also and then i checked out the 18z