SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 They will be wearing alot of egg on there Face if this verifies.. Thankfully the issue will be resolved still with decent lead time most likely, if the 00Z runs and 12Z runs tomorrow AM are the same watches can still go up with typical warning time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i can't tell you how many GREAT storms began with local network forecasts like that when 48+ hours out. or when they said eastern long island changes over and they jackpotted lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18Z UKMET sticking to its guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am hearing through the grape vine that HPC is throwing the 18Z run out as well. Take it whats it worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 One problem with the HPC's strategy on this is that if you expect a lot, and get nothing, the impact is zero (with the exception of being let down and annoyed). However, expecting nothing and getting a lot has vastly different implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am hearing through the grape vine that HPC is throwing the 18Z run out as well. Take it whats it worth. HPC is starting to look really ridiculous IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am hearing through the grape vine that HPC is throwing the 18Z run out as well. Take it whats it worth. This is getting embarrassing. What is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Lee G on ABC NYC is going with 1"-3" for NYC and 3"-6" for Long Island. gotta at this point... i agree. after 00z things should be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am hearing through the grape vine that HPC is throwing the 18Z run out as well. Take it whats it worth. They did so with the 18Z NAM so I fully expect its the same for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Lee G on ABC NYC is going with 1"-3" for NYC and 3"-6" for Long Island. hes referring to the 12z. He hadnt seen the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am hearing through the grape vine that HPC is throwing the 18Z run out as well. Take it whats it worth. Fortunately, mother nature couldnt care less what HPC thinks. This is from our resident NCEP guy: dtk, on 24 December 2010 - 05:18 PM, said: Well said. I fully endorse this post. I really want to know what they are seeing. I'm shocked they are so willing to just toss runs with these sort of short lead times.....especially with some ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So I guess that means the Euro super bomb solutions earlier in the week were "infected" as well. I'm sleep deprived and coffee-dependent but here comes another long night of neurotic model watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I agree, also, the models were already begining to show signs of coming west last night prior to all the model error talk today. its too late though-- they already looked "bad" when they bought the euro earlier. I mean, it shouldnt matter at all-- they know this is a very inexact science and one bust wouldnt mar the 90% of the time theyre right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Would not be surprised if severe warnings or tornado warnings start going up east Texas to La. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 it is rare that i envy long beach in winter storm but this might be one of them. winds could be very strong over there. If this happens, absolutely. The 12/19 and 2/25 storms in particularly were extremely windy around here, probably over 40 mph gusts. I'm still playing on the very cautious side with this and still think this is mostly a glancing blow. I agree with Lee Goldberg's call for now. 0z will be very telling, if we see a mass westward lurch from the rest of the suite we can probably lock in a big storm. If they continue with their sheared out and late blooming low, I really have to think this is just overcorrecting on the GFS/Nam's part. As baroclinic said as well, the Gulf is key. The more heat and moisture can be drawn in, the more feeding back and development the low will undergo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18Z UKMET sticking to its guns. Please post. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 WTF. We are 48 hours away and have exactly the same idea of if it will snow as. We did 4 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hes referring to the 12z. He hadnt seen the 18z. Of course he had seen 18z. Lee is a guy that checks models right before he goes on air. He's one of the best NYC mets (Lee Goldberg, Nick Gregory and Craig Allen are the best IMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is all pretty wild. One of the more fun, albeit frustrating, threats i have ever tracked. the amazing thing to me is that i am in no way more confident about any solution than i was 24 hours ago. And when you're within 2-3 days of the storm happening, that really says something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Of course he had seen 18z. Lee is a guy that checks models right before he goes on air. He's one of the best NYC mets (Lee Goldberg, Nick Gregory and Craig Allen are the best IMO). It pays to be conservative right now. No one wants to alarm people over Xmas weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm pretty sure there isn't a forecaster who is working the midnight rounds tonight at Taunton, Upton, Mt. Holly, Baltimore who isn't hoping the 00Z runs just come to a damn conclusion one way or the other, it makes it alot easier to either go with no headlines or vice versa come the morning package if there is strong agreement, if its still U.S. models vs. the world by 3am then I don't know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It pays to be conservative right now. No one wants to alarm people over Xmas weekend. He's aggressive compared to Sam Champion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 when does gfs ensemble mean start rollin out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 He's aggressive compared to Sam Champion. I think he might be aggressive with sam champion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well one thing the 0 z models will be coming in with a new data set, any if there are major problems developing within these models this would be a heck of time for this to happen. too bad we couldn't tap into 12 planet and fine out whats really going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z gfs ens are a huge hit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Of course he had seen 18z. Lee is a guy that checks models right before he goes on air. He's one of the best NYC mets (Lee Goldberg, Nick Gregory and Craig Allen are the best IMO). Couldn't agree more !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 they are wetter than 12z ens...accum qpf has 1inch from phl to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z gfs ens are a huge hit again. vry encouraging..to me at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 He's aggressive compared to Sam Champion. What about Bill Evans? I like his sense of humor-- he said all the models were away for xmas and we wouldnt know what was going to happen until Sunday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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