NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 5

[NittanyWx]

I mentioned earlier how impressed I was with the SW over Texas. Convection associated with it was well underforecast, and the models really didnt pick up on it much at all either. Another conference call in 15 minutes, I think we're sticking to our guns until 0z.

[bass28]

Who said to throw the 18z NAM out? I see nothing from the HPC.

read snowgooses post....

[winterwx21]

Who said to throw the 18z NAM out? I see nothing from the HPC.

Yes, HPC said they're discounting it.

[LVblizzard]

HPC did under its heavy snow discussion

read snowgooses post....

Oh, gotcha. I missed that.

[Riptide]

HPC is just avoiding the inevitable, IMO. The proof is the in 12z euro ensembles.

[A-L-E-X]

HPC is just avoiding the inevitable, IMO. The proof is the in 12z euro ensembles.

Yeah, after what happened a few days earlier-- theyre going to be leery of any solution like that. They did say the forecast was still "low confidence" so all solutions should still be on the table-- especially with that convection blowing up like that.

[Kaner587]

at hr 24 18z GFS has the two s/w's about 100 miles from phasing with the northern stream really diving WSW

[tombo82685]

hr 30 has a sub 1012 low in the same spot as 12z....lgt to mod precip up to southern va

[tornadojay]

at 33 - it's digging down deep just like at 12Z

[chubbs]

Looks similar to 12z but gulf system may be a little stronger.

[tombo82685]

at 33 - it's digging down deep just like at 12Z

yup, low is stronger also, sub 1008 over fl panhandle...

[A-L-E-X]

yup, low is stronger also, sub 1008 over fl panhandle...

the initialization errors are getting worse

[_AR_]

I'm going to pass out.

[tombo82685]

hr 36 trof is digging more from what i can see sub 1004 low over jacksonville....lgt precip over most of va except nva

[Porsche]

18Z GFS going to bomb it out. I can tell already.

I certainly hope so

[tornadojay]

wow.. this thing is jacked up majorly... jeez.. this thing is gonna be strong with this run. no doubt about it

[Alpha5]

Euro ensemble spag plots reveal that the OP euro was an eastern outliner to its ensembles.

Many, if not a majority of the euro ensembles have a GFS like track, hugging the coast.

[_AR_]

This is what we need. We NEED it to intensify in the GOM like the 12Z and 18Z GFS depict.

[tombo82685]

hr 42 42 sub 996 due south of hse...lgt to mod precip bout to get into southern delmarva

[LVblizzard]

Euro ensemble spag plots reveal that the OP euro was an eastern outliner to its ensembles.

Many, if not a majority of the euro ensembles have a GFS like track, hugging the coast.

Then why was the mean so far east?

[jm1220]

This is just pure insanity. I can't think of a time 24 hours out like this where there was this much variance in model solutions. I'm still leaning toward this largely being a miss at this point, but if we see the 0z suite continue trending west and stronger, who knows what could happen.

[tombo82685]

wow its digging a lot more compared to 12z...the 546 line is bout to go into the gulf

[Kingwill]

I have a feeling the HPC is gonna go down HARD with this one.. if this ends up a major snowstorm there is gonna be alot of explaining to do..

[tombo82685]

hr 45 sub 996 at hse, looks to be about 25 miles further west...

[Porsche]

18z gfs 42 hrs WAAY WEST

very fierce and bombing

[tombo82685]

hr 48 sub 988 25 miles off hse.. a tad further west than 12z hvy precip bout to get into northern del marva...lgt to mod precip about to dc

[Harbourton]

Looks like a closed low over central Texas.

[tombo82685]

hr 51 984 bout 90 miles from orf mod precip to about dc lgt to mod into phl and nyc

[_AR_]

DEFCON 2

WEENIE SUICIDE WARNING LEVEL: HIGH

[tombo82685]

hr 54 sub 980 captured about 90 miles east of lewes del...mod to hvy precip dc to nyc