Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM is OTS for the Mid Atlantic, but came slightly west from 6Z. h5 also had improvements. Well, I have to go for a bit, so I'll come back when the rest of the12Z suite is finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM is OTS for the Mid Atlantic, but came slightly west from 6Z. h5 also had improvements. Well, I have to go for a bit, so I'll come back when the rest of the12Z suite is finished. Sim radar has it snowing lightly from the Dealware River North and East...might be able to spueeze an 1-2" out on this run for most of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM tries to get NYC metro with an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM tries to get NYC metro with an inch or so. NAM leave us a norlun as a late Christmas gift? We know how well those work out... This actually would bump totals in the 2-3" range from NYC east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well that's all she wrote south of NYC. Its actually been over for days down here but the 12z NAM had everything about as good as it can get early on and its still a major whiff. Thankfully its X-mas eve so I'll put the computer away for a few days here. Have a safe and merry X-mas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Total QPF on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Total QPF on the NAM. not bad..3-6 for central LI..in this winter you take what you can get..ya know the 2-4 and 3-6 are typical in Strong nina's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm not sure the precip is a norlun or inverted feature as much as it might be getting generated by the NAM recognizing the relatively strong upper low overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm not sure the precip is a norlun or inverted feature as much as it might be getting generated by the NAM recognizing the relatively strong upper low overhead. That is my thinking upon further review. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is what happened on 12/27/04...something similar could happen again as the upper low swings through, upper lows are one of the most pesky features of forecasting, and generally they do not factor in here much in the N.E. US for a few reasons, one we tend to usually get hit by bigger systems and they are often more disguised being at the base of a big trough or they occur well behind low pressure areas that affect the area and most people generally pass it off as having been part of the original system when it was not...they often cause surprise events in the Deep South and Plains states during the winter months....some events that hit the NYC metro area which were unexpected upper level events were of course 12/27/04, last week's 2-4 inch event in parts of Nassau County, 12/12/92, 12/11/93, and the 2-4 inch round of snow behind the 12/19/95 which occurred on the 20th when the surface low was basically already off New Hampshire and SE Maine. http://www.njfreeway...darImagery.html Added the 12/20 event as well, its the images at the end of the event 10am-2pm or so.... http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/1996/19-Dec-95-FortDixDopplerRadarImagery.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ok, the GFS is initializing. To make it easier to read, lets make the information flow clearly by having one person do pbp, and unless you have a red tag or really know what you are talking about, avoid projecting. Just because the trough maybe sharper at hour 12, it doesn't necessarily mean it will be a blizzard on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Initial tau shows the low closed in TX panhandle, albeit barely but the disturbance in SD is heading more SSE than ESE as it was on the 00Z run at tau 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hr 15 sw energy in eastern tx....northern stream diving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Initial tau shows the low closed in TX panhandle, albeit barely but the disturbance in SD is heading more SSE than ESE as it was on the 00Z run at tau 12. Congrats, you are the pbp guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hr 15 sw energy in eastern tx....northern stream diving in. Or you, idk, as long as it's not 5 people. I did notice the 9z ETA was out to sea, but that's not necessarily a bad thing considering it's history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Or you, idk, as long as it's not 5 people. I did notice the 9z ETA was out to sea, but that's not necessarily a bad thing considering it's history. thats fine....goose can talk about whats going right and wrong...i will just give surface and h5 details verbatiam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have it out to 30 and the northern energy is definitely stronger and is diving further south compared to the 0Z at 42. Heights are a tick higher in the east, and the trough is a little sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 1012 low just SE of New Orleans at 30. The trough is digging more than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hr 36 has higher hgts along the east coast at h5....closed low over the pandhandel of fl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 superior to 00z look. Trough is sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Much higher heights along the east coast and more digging this run. Very positive so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That low to the northeast really needs to get out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I was just thinking the exact same thing re: 12/27/04. I guess I couldn't complain, even though its not the bomb we hoped for. A little snow is better than none. This is what happened on 12/27/04...something similar could happen again as the upper low swings through, upper lows are one of the most pesky features of forecasting, and generally they do not factor in here much in the N.E. US for a few reasons, one we tend to usually get hit by bigger systems and they are often more disguised being at the base of a big trough or they occur well behind low pressure areas that affect the area and most people generally pass it off as having been part of the original system when it was not...they often cause surprise events in the Deep South and Plains states during the winter months....some events that hit the NYC metro area which were unexpected upper level events were of course 12/27/04, last week's 2-4 inch event in parts of Nassau County, 12/12/92, 12/11/93, and the 2-4 inch round of snow behind the 12/19/95 which occurred on the 20th when the surface low was basically already off New Hampshire and SE Maine. http://www.njfreeway...darImagery.html Added the 12/20 event as well, its the images at the end of the event 10am-2pm or so.... http://www.njfreeway...darImagery.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 comparing hr 42 on 12z gfs to hr 48 on o6z the surface low is about 75 miles further west in the se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Much higher heights along the east coast and more digging this run. Very positive so far. I am thoroughly impressed with this H5 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Full phase in progress at 45. 1000 low off the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hr 48 low just south of hse 1000...so far alot further west then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hr 51 996 just east of hse...mod snow for raliegh and light snow for ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Compare 48 12z and 60 0z its laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hr 48 H5: Compared to 6Z: It is trying to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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