earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 John, you need to include Philly too, as this is not just a NYC subforum Sorry, chill. Philly .10 .10 to .25 east of there. Less west. Here's the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I hope we can put this error talk to rest at 0z whether it's shows a miss or a hit. Watch hpc say the 0z runs suffered from errors lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z models have new satelite data. People really need to relax with the 12z error. The error was at initialization. 18z initialization has nothing to do with 12z. that's not entirely accurate. Since the 18Z initialization is based on the 6 hour prog from the 12Z run, errors would be partly propagated into the new run. They may not be dampened out completely by the satellite/aircraft data ingest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 nam snowfall map is 2-4 for the metro area....4-8 on LI Queens is close to .50". So I would say 4"-6". For eastern Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 John, you need to include Philly too, as this is not just a NYC subforum Or you could learn how to get that information yourself instead of whining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 biggest bust potential since mar 01? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Sorry, chill. Philly .10 .10 to .25 east of there. Less west. Here's the map Sorry, didnt mean to sound weenieish, it just seems like occasionally people forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z models have new sattelite data. People really need to relax with the 12z error. The error was at initialization. 18z initialization has nothing to do with 12z. +1 You're right on. The 18z runs have nothing to do with the 12z runs. This was talk about in detailed YESTERDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Lots of aircraft recon drops taking place for the next few model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 +1 You're right on. The 18z runs have nothing to do with the 12z runs. This was talk about in detailed YESTERDAY. They partly do as famartin explained. But they definitely have new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Queens is close to .50". So I would say 4"-6". For eastern Queens. That be me I honestly can't live with a solution like the nams. I can't watch Boston get destroyed while we try to scrape up a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Euro Ensembles are West of the Operational model. Again, the ensembles for the Euro must have those initialization errors! http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!72!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2010122412!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Queens is close to .50". So I would say 4"-6". For eastern Queens. dude seriously? its a snowfall map from the nam...not ur backyard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That be me I honestly can't live with a solution like the nams. I can't watch Boston get destroyed while we try to scrape up a couple inches. Put yourself 100 miles west and say that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 dude seriously? its a snowfall map from the nam...not ur backyard.. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 They partly do as famartin explained. But they definitely have new data. Yeah. I just saw that. oops. But anyway, the errors didn't affect the NAM as much as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 biggest bust potential since mar 01? I don't think so - maybe biggest positive suprise potential. I think most had written this storm off and are still skeptical of the latest runs. Normally I'm very excited when the GFS shows a 12" snowstorm within 72hrs.....in this instance I'm more curious. Trends have been very good but we are running out of time for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 dude seriously? its a snowfall map from the nam...not ur backyard.. I don't live in eastern Queens. I'm next to NYC. So I get .25". Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Euro Ensembles are West of the Operational model. Again, the ensembles for the Euro must have those initialization errors! http://www.ecmwf.int...l!2010122412!!/ ?? I thought someone said the euro esembles were east of the operational? which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Euro Ensembles are West of the Operational model. Again, the ensembles for the Euro must have those initialization errors! http://www.ecmwf.int...l!2010122412!!/ Wow I'd say so. Well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Put yourself 100 miles west and say that again. Yea you're right. I wish every storm could nail all of us. I'd rather see DC get hammered than Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That be me I honestly can't live with a solution like the nams. I can't watch Boston get destroyed while we try to scrape up a couple inches. thats 2-4 more then you have now...im sure ur will find a way to survive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Relax. Wow, people will really lose it if some people get hit hard while others get teased. This will get worse than 2/6 because of the time of year and the fact the pattern is going to shift for a bit after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 so is it the same deal with the 18z GFS?? carries over the 12Z errors??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Euro Ensembles are West of the Operational model. Again, the ensembles for the Euro must have those initialization errors! http://www.ecmwf.int...l!2010122412!!/ Ouch! Look at that ensemble cluster around the benchmark. The operational is on the eastern edge of the ensemble mean. This is probably more significant than anyone is willing to acknowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yeah. I just saw that. oops. But anyway, the errors didn't affect the NAM as much as the GFS. But a really interesting thing, is that the NAM really trended towards the 12z GFS, yet it wasn't "affected as much by initialization errors." Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, people will really lose it if some people get hit hard while others get teased. This will get worse than 2/6 because of the time of year and the fact the pattern is going to shift for a bit after this storm. yea the weenie suicides might actually be literal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ouch! Look at that ensemble cluster around the benchmark. The operational is on the eastern edge of the ensemble mean. This is probably more significant than anyone is willing to acknowledge. Yes. The 18Z NAM tracked in the same way the Euro ensembles tracked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I can't watch Boston get destroyed while we try to scrape up a couple inches. It was called the 2008-2009 winter. Still sticks in my craw (craw?) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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