joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM is based on the ETA. Perhaps, but they often have quite different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Everybody please turn on CNN. You have to see this guy's snowfall map. It is amazing. I am trying to find it on their website but can't. He is going for a full-blown East Coast hit with us in the epicenter. Again, he says it is based on latest model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm not trolling guys, the NAM isn't a hit like the GFS especially for NYC. While it's great to see a massive shift to the west, 0Z will give us the final results. Jeez lighten up, I wasn't being a weisenheimer... cuz u dont back your statements with anything but troll like substance, so how do you expect us to view your posts???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm not trolling guys, the NAM isn't a hit like the GFS especially for NYC. While it's great to see a massive shift to the west, 0Z will give us the final results. Jeez lighten up, I wasn't being a weisenheimer... Of course you were, it is quite evident in your word and phrase selection. Also, final results can only come from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Honestly, the NAM is breaking up the single piece of energy into multiple ones off the North Carolina coast at hour 54. I think that it could be a reason for the slightly confusing solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NYC .25 Central LI .5 Eastern LI .75 Montauk 1" Jersey Shore .25-.50 Still snowing NAM instead of 1-3" now has 3-6" in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Lol I can tell you and Ray are getting drawn back in. I cant blame you guys-- it would be silly for anyone to dismiss this thing or say they know whats going to happen. The only certain thing at this point is continued uncertainty! In 3 hours the only thing I want to be drawn into is a bed. From which I won't emerge for 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm not trolling guys, the NAM isn't a hit like the GFS especially for NYC. While it's great to see a massive shift to the west, 0Z will give us the final results. Jeez lighten up, I wasn't being a weisenheimer... dude you said miss...miss means nothing the GFS has us around .5-.75 maybe a little more and more east. The NAM looks like a tiny bit less than than maybe .3-.5 and a lot more east. Posts like that make people angry and contribute ABSOLUTELY nothing to this thread. Please leave if you are going to continue to make posts like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Everybody please turn on CNN. You have to see this guy's snowfall map. It is amazing. I am trying to find it on their website but can't. He is going for a full-blown East Coast hit with us in the epicenter. Again, he says it is based on latest model trends. really? what does he have in the philly area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 a met from sne said to throw out the nam because it has 12z gfs data is this true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NYC .25 Central LI .5 Eastern LI .75 Montauk 1" Jersey Shore .25-.50 Still snowing and by looking at h5, h700 and h850 dont look right. I thnk there is plenty of room to bring this even further west....thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 CNN shows snow for DC from Sunday to Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 More snow 69 hrs...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Everybody please turn on CNN. You have to see this guy's snowfall map. It is amazing. I am trying to find it on their website but can't. He is going for a full-blown East Coast hit with us in the epicenter. When did JB start working at CNN? But in all reality that solution is possible just not sure how likely it can do that at least that far west. Eastern Half of LI into SE New England I see the chances of a significant snowstorm with blizzard type conditions a very real possibility. I also see a moderate event back to NYC and the NJ coast a real possibility. Once west of I95, though possible, it is not as likely but something I would dismiss either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 H5 looks really good but doesn't translate at all to the surface maps. i've seen this before on the NAM with multiple surface lows scattered about in the ocean. I would ignore the surface maps and just take the positives from H5 in it's 48hr wheelhouse. It's a very positive sign IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm not trolling guys, the NAM isn't a hit like the GFS especially for NYC. While it's great to see a massive shift to the west, 0Z will give us the final results. Jeez lighten up, I wasn't being a weisenheimer... It isn't a miss either, I suggest you stop posting about a miss until the run is done, for your own good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The three jet steams are in play if only we get some upstream ridging. There's a third jet stream?! Yikes! I've been mislead for three years. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just rewound it. Looks like around 6 inches. really? what does he have in the philly area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Dont want to be negative, but I get the feeling if the errors are what caused the GFS to go west, its probably the same thing with the nam. But god i hope thats not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 a met from sne said to throw out the nam because it has 12z gfs data is this true? AFAIK it uses a lot of 12Z sounding data, but uses new satellite data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 H5 looks really good but doesn't translate at all to the surface maps. i've seen this before on the NAM with multiple surface lows scattered about in the ocean. I would ignore the surface maps and just take the positives from H5 in it's 48hr wheelhouse. It's a very positive sign IMO. I agree, it is starting to catch on with all of the players on the field, timing is everything. This will be a nowcast special.weenie phrase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 MT Holly; .SHORT TERM /6 AM CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --ALL EYES NOW TURN TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REDEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SHARPENS, IT WILL LIKELY FORM A CUTOFF LOW. MOST MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS LOW FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST SO THAT IT WILL STEER THE SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO ONLY HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA. WITH THIS BEING SAID, WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN OUR FORECAST FOR MEASURABLE SNOW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. IF WE DON`T GET MUCH FROM THE COASTAL LOW, THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS OUR REGION AND THIS COULD GIVE US SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS ALSO. BUT WITHOUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW, NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS INDICATE A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST, THIS COULD CHANGE. BUT, FOR NOW, IT IS WHAT IT IS. NOTHING UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF THE WHITE STUFF IS ABOUT THE BEST WE CAN DO FOR ALL OF THE SNOW LOVERS AMONGST YOU. ONCE THE LOW HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY, IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND COLD AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.-- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z models have new sattelite data. People really need to relax with the 12z error. The error was at initialization. 18z initialization has nothing to do with 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 nam snowfall map is 2-4 for the metro area....4-8 on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Dont want to be negative, but I get the feeling if the errors are what caused the GFS to go west, its probably the same thing with the nam. But god i hope thats not true but question is why didnt these errors cause the 12z nam to go west then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks like The 0Z GFS from Yesterday. 3-6" of snow. I'll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NYC .25 Central LI .5 Eastern LI .75 Montauk 1" Jersey Shore .25-.50 Still snowing John, you need to include Philly too, as this is not just a NYC subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Mt Holly's not on board yet. Apparently they don't watch CNN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I agree, it is starting to catch on with all of the players on the field, timing is everything. This will be a nowcast special.weenie phrase this run hammers long island and new england...impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM would be painful in NYC if that was the result - we get 3" and Boston gets 20" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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