Analog96 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 we hear time and time again that the 06 and 18z runs get no new data. Or at least not as much as the 0z and 12z runs.. If so, will the 18z runs carry the same init errors as the 12z? Or will they reinit altogether? That's not supposed to be true anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Does this have error's too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks like all BUT Sussex County in NJ is in 6"+ snowfall on that map. The entire state of NJ is within it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Energy is more consolidated- plus it is diving due SWS. Just took a look- you're right! Plus, the Vort Max with the s/w seems to be pretty strong already, is closed off, and is digging pretty nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Trough is hanging back, waiting too catch the energy with the s/w... looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just look at the positioning of the RH field. While this may not be a coastal hugger like gfs, it is looking better than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Before getting too excited about the 15z SREFs, they don't they run off the 12z data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Whatever impacted the GFS is hitting NAM?SREF also. Northern stream digging much further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 She's doing it at 36!!!!! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_036s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NAM is a miss guys, wide right...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Damn that sim at 36 is looking secsyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM at h5 looks remarkably similar to the 12Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The three jet steams are in play if only we get some upstream ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 is the difference between the Ns and the Xs on the H5 plots strictly one of vorticity strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM precipitation shield is about 50-75 miles west of 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NAM is going to make things really interesting..big trend towards the GFS through 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Watching CNN, they have all of NJ getting hammered in their snowfall forecast with up to 8 inches they said. The map looked like it had all of NJ and NYC in the 6-12 inch range with the max in about Passaic.County, NJ. Wow. The forecaster said this is based on latest model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Watching CNN, they have all of NJ getting hammered in their snowfall forecast with up to 8 inches they said. The map looked like it had all of NJ and NYC in the 6-12 inch range with the max in about Passaic.County, NJ. Wow. Talk about being confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Watching CNN, they have all of NJ getting hammered in their snowfall forecast with up to 8 inches they said. The map looked like it had all of NJ and NYC in the 6-12 inch range with the max in about Passaic.County, NJ. Wow. Whatt?!! Wow that is pretty impressive they are going that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 is the difference between the Ns and the Xs on the H5 plots strictly one of vorticity strength? An N marks a minimum, an X marks a maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NAM is a miss guys, wide right...... So everyone is saying the NAM is looking better and then this post flies out of nowhere. Is it a miss, or is it looking better. I'm on a phone so I can't see any maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I know. It is unreal, but true. I just saw it. He has this thing coming right up the coast. I had to rewind it . I was in shock. Whatt?!! Wow that is pretty impressive they are going that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Everything is backing towards the coast at 48 hrs..it's probably going to be a bit east of the GFS but it's incredible how much closer it looks to the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ya know what guys? I've been up for 20 hours and I don't have a fricken' clue. There's some meteorological analysis for ya! Now I like that honest analysis!! lol This may very well go down to the wire as to a complete miss to an all out blizzard. I would be a pretty happy camper if I lived on central or eastern LI. Back west its a bit more dicey. Going to be a close one folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So everyone is saying the NAM is looking better and then this post flies out of nowhere. Is it a miss, or is it looking better. I'm on a phone so I can't see any maps. probably a near miss, but infinitely better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So everyone is saying the NAM is looking better and then this post flies out of nowhere. Is it a miss, or is it looking better. I'm on a phone so I can't see any maps. Why would you even consider a single post like that to be valid analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I know. It is unreal, but true. I just saw it. He has this thing coming right up the coast. I had to rewind it . I was in shock. Again, does this portend things to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Closed off over North Carolina at 51 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So everyone is saying the NAM is looking better and then this post flies out of nowhere. Is it a miss, or is it looking better. I'm on a phone so I can't see any maps. TBH I wouldn't worry too much, we're not going to get significant snow either way back here.I'm sorry if that sounds weenie-ish, but I don't see anything that gives us a good shot (MAYBE the 15z SREF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Again, does this portend things to come? No. He does not get the models any earlier than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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