earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The SREFs are absolutely insane, I can't believe what I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Of course they do. They used the suspect GFS initialization. ARW and WRF. Both short range models. They look like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The SREFs are absolutely insane, I can't believe what I am seeing. http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html Must have been another initialization error I'll take 001 002 003 and 005. All of them look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The SREFs are absolutely insane, I can't believe what I am seeing. Is the mean spread closer to the coast at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is the mean spread closer to the coast at this point in time. Wow, that would indicate from the mean a moderate to large snowstorm. New Jersey special all the way through Long Island and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 They can wait till the morning. Precip wouldn't being till Sunday afternoon. Strongly disagree, the storm is still 60hrs out and only one model and it's ensembles are showing impacts I think it is a safe bet especially when it comes to Upton that watches will not be issued with the afternoon package. I do not mean this as a slight on the Upton Office either, I am sure they would like to see a few more runs before pulling the trigger, Maybe tomorrow morning if this looks like a signficant snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z NAM a tad more amplified in a WSW fashion. Ridging is stronger behind and in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The SREFs are absolutely insane, I can't believe what I am seeing. they use the same info as the GFS?..can't be an error can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think it is a safe bet especially when it comes to Upton that watches will not be issued with the afternoon package. I do not mean this as a slight on the Upton Office either, I am sure they would like to see a few more runs before pulling the trigger, Maybe tomorrow morning if this looks like a signficant snow threat. There is so much uncertainty, I dont blame them for not issuing anything. I think if this threat actually materializes, watches should be issued 24 hrs prior to the projected start of the event. Warnings as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 There will be no watches - watches are issued when an event is likely to happen. This event is very unlikely to happen - however, the GFS gave us something to hope that a Christmas miracle could happen. That's not correct. Watches indicate 50% or greater probability of a warning event. Warnings indicate 80% or greater probability of said event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That's not correct. Watches indicate 50% or greater probability of a warning event. Warnings indicate 80% or greater probability of said event. How are probabilities accurately assessed, Ray? Do you think it would be proper for watches to be issues, say, 24 hrs before the projected start and warnings 12-24 hrs after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 :blink: :blink: WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z NAM looking much better t 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ya know what guys? I've been up for 20 hours and I don't have a fricken' clue. There's some meteorological analysis for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks like all BUT Sussex County in NJ is in 6"+ snowfall on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 .50 - .75.... if verified, would be a nice warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i dunno....sat image has the low almost south central TX, looks to be digging SE to me. decent moisture from the GOM, looks like there was energy diving on the back side but noting concrete to my eyes. but the trough is deff tilting. i also see some energy diving down located around the NE/IA border, i assume thats the northern branch producing the snow in that area. so we are looking for this to dive down the back side of the sfc low in TX? so what is going to prevent it from happenning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM digging the shortwave dramatically into Southeast OK at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ya know what guys? I've been up for 20 hours and I don't have a fricken' clue. There's some meteorological analysis for ya! I think we may have over analyzed every detail. Its all for the greater good though anyways, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 How are probabilities accurately assessed, Ray? Do you think it would be proper for watches to be issues, say, 24 hrs before the projected start and warnings 12-24 hrs after that? There isn't one standard way to assess probability, its the opinion of the forecaster. But, I'm just saying that the regs say a forecaster should have 50% confidence in an event to issue a watch, and 80% confidence to issue a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z NAM looking much better t 24 How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Insanity. Suddenly the SREFs bring 3-6" all the way to the I-81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ya know what guys? I've been up for 20 hours and I don't have a fricken' clue. There's some meteorological analysis for ya! Quote of the day!! I'm so very confused by all of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 How so? Energy is more consolidated- plus it is diving due SWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 we hear time and time again that the 06 and 18z runs get no new data. Or at least not as much as the 0z and 12z runs.. If so, will the 18z runs carry the same init errors as the 12z? Or will they reinit altogether? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 There isn't one standard way to assess probability, its the opinion of the forecaster. But, I'm just saying that the regs say a forecaster should have 50% confidence in an event to issue a watch, and 80% confidence to issue a warning. Someone told me 40 and 70, but that's semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the western ridge on 18z is redonk stronger than 12z out to 24h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM digging the shortwave dramatically into Southeast OK at 24 hrs Initialization issues again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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