_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It is, but on the website the Northern Hemisphere drop down menu for some reason is not available. Yeah today and yesterday it is only available for the korean region for some reason. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Does anyone know if these initialization errors will definitely not be present on the next run? Won't know until it initializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You noted that the northern shortwave did not look different from the initialization, any news on that? It still looks similar. The separation in guidance doesn't begin to occur until 18-30hrs from the 12z initialization in regards to a strong shortwave coming through the Dakotas. Basically we won't have an idea until tonight at the earliest. I am surprised at HPC's jump to discard the GFS. Especially with the NAM and some globals trending in it's direction for a few cycles now. I wouldn't run with the GFS but I certainly wouldn't throw it in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Won't know until it initializes. I know you didn't mean to make my question sound stupid but it really does after that answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It still looks similar. The separation in guidance doesn't begin to occur until 18-30hrs from the 12z initialization in regards to a strong shortwave coming through the Dakotas. Basically we won't have an idea until tonight at the earliest. I am surprised at HPC's jump to discard the GFS. Especially with the NAM and some globals trending in it's direction for a few cycles now. I wouldn't run with the GFS but I certainly wouldn't throw it in the trash. I know they dont react like this, but it almost sounds like they're upset because they got burned so badly when the euro showed close to the same solution a few days ago. Maybe theyre thinking of the last storm, when this happened in reverse lol. Regardless, I doubt that solution verifies either.... but the way OTS solutions are also a bit suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I would've understood if the GFS had such issues that it wasn't worth looking at. That's fine. But then they go on to state the 00z ECMWF had similar issues, and then they blend it into their forecast? The reasoning doesn't make much sense to me, but I guess for the sole sake of continuity they used that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think upton has to go with watches for the afternoon package...risks of not doing so are too high. As for Mt. Holly they probably wait until 00z package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Korean Christmas vacation?..or maybe it decided to go to war..lol Maybe Kim Jong Il bombed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think upton has to go with watches for the afternoon package...risks of not doing so are too high. As for Mt. Holly they probably wait until 00z package No chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think upton has to go with watches for the afternoon package...risks of not doing so are too high. As for Mt. Holly they probably wait until 00z package They can wait till the morning. Precip wouldn't being till Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The WRF-ARW is a model with higher spatial resolution which is being designed to include specific convective capabilities unique to that model. The NMM is designed to be the WRF operational model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 No chance. I would not say no chance, very minimal perhaps. One of the things is each office looks at the HPC suggestions and then makes their own tweaks. One office may like a model, the other not. With that being said, watches for the east end perhaps, or New England could happen. Mt. Holly probably would just mention it in their hwo again, and say it is too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The WRF-ARW is a model with higher spatial resolution which is being designed to include specific convective capabilities unique to that model. The NMM is designed to be the WRF operational model. And all of them look like the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think upton has to go with watches for the afternoon package...risks of not doing so are too high. As for Mt. Holly they probably wait until 00z package Strongly disagree, the storm is still 60hrs out and only one model and it's ensembles are showing impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I would not say no chance, very minimal perhaps. One of the things is each office looks at the HPC suggestions and then makes their own tweaks. One office may like a model, the other not. With that being said, watches for the east end perhaps, or New England could happen. Mt. Holly probably would just mention it in their hwo again, and say it is too early. Watches could be issued for Suffolk, New London, Middlesex (CT), and maybe that's it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Strongly disagree, the storm is still 60hrs out and only one model and it's ensembles are showing impacts Waiting for the 12z Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Strongly disagree, the storm is still 60hrs out and only one model and it's ensembles are showing impacts Read what I said below. I think there is pretty good confidence of 6" for the Eastern fringes of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Earthlight, i also have to ask you this. I noticed they are flying reconnaissance planes somewhere along the east coast? When would this data be inputted within the models? 00z, or 12z tomorrow? Also, judging by the trends on the radar so far, is it supporting one model over another yet? I know it is difficult, as they go astray from hours 18-30, however, anything that would be considered a red flag in either direction, phase or no phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 No chance. Seriously, NO chance is HELL would Upton issue watches.. They'll issue watches/warnings AFTER 3 inches fall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I want this model crap over with by 18z and not wanting to look at a model at all tomorrow. If 18z GFS goes way east of 12z then it's game over for I-95 west? I'd think so at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 There will be no watches - watches are issued when an event is likely to happen. This event is very unlikely to happen - however, the GFS gave us something to hope that a Christmas miracle could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 There will be no watches - watches are issued when an event is likely to happen. This event is very unlikely to happen - however, the GFS gave us something to hope that a Christmas miracle could happen. Do you really think there is less than 40% probability of 6" on the East end of LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I want this model crap over with by 18z and not wanting to look at a model at all tomorrow. If 18z GFS goes way east of 12z then it's game over for I-95 west? I'd think so at this point. Talk about a cluster**** of events my god. I for one was never really "hyping" this event but i kinda got my hopes up at the gfs and all the baby models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I see you are from Union county, as your status notes Elizabeth. I always wondered why union was part of uptons territory and middlesex holly. It always makes for an interesting forecast. Once a town just north of me had 2-4 inches predicted by upton, and my town, in holly's zone was double that. No real reason, other than the DOC had to draw the lines somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Do you really think there is less than 40% probability of 6" on the East end of LI? I would not even put NYC metro out of 40% of 6 inches just yet. It is not a wishcast by any means, just something that covers the shaky modeling so far, and the timing issues of a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z NAM starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just a thought here: The thunderstorms breaking out in Texas and OK was a bit of a surprise to me. I've been pretty impressed with that southern stream SW so far, particularly since I didn't expect that much convection associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just a thought here: The thunderstorms breaking out in Texas and OK was a bit of a surprise to me. I've been pretty impressed with that southern stream SW so far, particularly since I didn't expect that much convection associated with it. That southern stream certainly is juicy. I mean, it was even as it hit Cali-- very el nino like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just a thought here: The thunderstorms breaking out in Texas and OK was a bit of a surprise to me. I've been pretty impressed with that southern stream SW so far, particularly since I didn't expect that much convection associated with it. I noticed that as well. I am not that familiar with the dynamics of severe weather. Just glancing at it, i thought tornado warnings might have to be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 SREF's great trend for you guys fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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