Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 ARW and WRF. Both short range models. They look like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I do not know what to think when the ECM is almost as close to what the NOGAPS is. The ensembles support the GFS completely and even the individual members. One has to remember that what the GFS is showing NOW is no different from what the ECM was showing at one point and time and it showed that solution for 7 runs straight of which 5 could have been classified as SECS or HECS . During that time the GFS was not showing that... The ECM then lost that scenario and backed off of it and then swung completely the opposite way around. However, when the ECM was showing those solutions it was never labeled as initialization errors . Now the GFS comes west and it has been west and showing a bomb now for several runs but more along the coast effecting extreme SNE but now its come more west... Does not climatology argue for something like the GFS is showing? I mean if the means were not backing it up it would make it look highly suspicious but you can see that this has been coming west (outside the 6Z run) for several runs.. Noone was talking about throwing the ECM out when it showed what it showed and now we are talking about throwing the GFS out just because its switched camps. That makes no sense to me . Just my 2 cents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 ARW and WRF. Both short range models. They look like the GFS. Is that a 958mb low? wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is that a 958mb low? wtf Yep. The physics of these models are similar to the RUC, and have a higher quality resolution than the GFS. If that were Tropical, it would be a Category Three Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is that a 958mb low? wtf I heard these are pretty accurate..am I right?..god I don't know what to think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Why cant the GFS and Euro ever show the same thing at the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Jesus, people are throwing around the cras model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I heard these are pretty accurate..am I right?..god I don't know what to think These models have different physics, a different resolution, and a different timeframe. These are usually pretty accurate, from what I've heard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I heard these are pretty accurate..am I right?..god I don't know what to think It's better not to think lol-- and dont take any of them seriously until whatever is going to happen actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Many of us would at least like to see SOME snow. I think the fact that the Euro shows nothing for us is pushing people to the edge. Btw when will our wrf model be ready? It would have been nice to have it ready for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Many of us would at least like to see SOME snow. I think the fact that the Euro shows nothing for us is pushing people to the edge. Btw when will our wrf model be ready? It would have been nice to have it ready for this system. The NMM model looked like the GFS, yet the NAM doesn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Why cant the GFS and Euro ever show the same thing at the same time? There's a better chance for Mid-East peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 RUC 17Z initialized like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NMM model looked like the GFS, yet the NAM doesn't... NAM could look like it later on dude..IMO it looked like it was heading in the GFS direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM could look like it later on dude..IMO it looked like it was heading in the GFS direction. True. The RUC's initialization looked almost exactly like the GFS', yet it's somehow not garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I heard these are pretty accurate..am I right?..god I don't know what to think I know that some of the Accu-Weather mets like the WRF but a 958mb low is sick. I think the prudent thing to do is throw out the 12Z GFS, Like NCEP is telling us and expect a miss to the east like everything but the JMA is depicting. BUT, I'll still be back here for the 18Z, 0Z and 12Z run tomorrow because this has been one crazy storm to track and forecast confidence has to be pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I know that some of the Accu-Weather mets like the WRF but a 958mb low is sick. I think the prudent thing to do is throw out the 12Z GFS, Like NCEP is telling us and expect a miss to the east like everything but the JMA is depicting. BUT, I'll still be back here for the 18Z, 0Z and 12Z run tomorrow because this has been one crazy storm to track and forecast confidence has to be pretty low. Shows you how complicated this storm is. No one should throw in any towels yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 RUC 17Z initialized like the GFS. Remember the RUC for last weeks storm 18 hours out showed accumulating snow all the way to KPOU so beware of that tomorrow if it starts showing that for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The WRF would suffer from the same initialization errors than the GFS Is that a 958mb low? wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Tmagan, I known you always post KMA. Is it out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The WRF would suffer from the same initialization errors than the GFS The physics of the model are different than the GFS, so if it were a true error, it might have created an alternate solution, but it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The WRF would suffer from the same initialization errors than the GFS Of course it would cause any model that shows snow should be tossed !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I LOLd when I saw the 12Z CRAS. A retrograding storm off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The physics of the model are different than the GFS, so if it were a true error, it might have created an alternate solution, but it didn't. Sure, but if it initializes with bad data the entire thing is screwed from the very start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Tmagan, I known always post KMA. Is it out yet? KMA hasn't updated for one or two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Sure, but if it initializes with bad data the entire thing is screwed from the very start. You noted that the northern shortwave did not look different from the initialization, any news on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Sure, but if it initializes with bad data the entire thing is screwed from the very start. The point of the matter is, is that without the "bad-data" we wouldn't know. So I think it's "cras" for HPC to discard the 12Z GFS, when they wouldn't know what it would have looked like without the bad data. The RUC also looked strangely similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 KMA hasn't updated for one or two days. Korean Christmas vacation?..or maybe it decided to go to war..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Tmagan, I known you always post KMA. Is it out yet? It is, but on the website the Northern Hemisphere drop down menu for some reason is not available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Does anyone know if these initialization errors will definitely not be present on the next run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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