tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the euro is known for making small run to run corrections. looks like we got exactly what we didn't want to see...a slight jog to the west leaving all of us wondering who to believe. Sounds like at the moment a comprimise between the GFS and Euro are on order. Perhaps similar too or slightly less than the JMA. All major models shifted northwest...some more than others...so it would appear their is something going on here a little deeper than initialization errors. I'll be interested to see if the euro ensemble mean shifts westward. the euro is further east...0z gave sne good qpf this run it gives them virtually nothing outside cape cod and ack...even that was cut down significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The plot thickens.... lol this is a confusing storm. Be back in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Not if 18z GFS and NAM go way east. If they do, it's over. I have to agree. We're running out of time for trends. The 12Z GFS may have been a hiccup, similar to what the Euro did last Thursday. Most guidance is still OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So basically Euro went from showing Coastal Bomb for days while everything else was OTS..now a lot more models have come west while it goes East.. Crazy stuff ! I think the same thing happened with the last "storm", but in reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So basically Euro went from showing Coastal Bomb for days while everything else was OTS..now a lot more models have come west while it goes East.. Crazy stuff ! sounds to me like it's in last place in the race lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Does anyone have KMA? It been way east. Would be interested to see how 12z looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is good distraction stuff as I shop for baby clothes at babies r us. It's like a soap opera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Not if 18z GFS and NAM go way east. If they do, it's over. Nothing is Over at 18Z , 0Z tonight or even 12Z tomorrow is more like it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The FIM, which has been consistent on an OTS solution for days now, has come way west. Big hit for NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think HPC may be right, GFS is a fluke. I'd ignore it for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The FIM, which has been consistent on an OTS solution for days now, has come way west. Big hit for NYC/LI. Uses GFS initialization data. May have the same errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the euro is further east...0z gave sne good qpf this run it gives them virtually nothing outside cape cod and ack...even that was cut down significantly yes Tombo...it was based on how it looked per your discussion at 48-54rs. Then from what I understand it shifts eastward. You mentioned it sped up the S/W slightly..I wonder if that is causing the differences. Seems like the other models have been trending slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I just don't see this being a complete miss for everyone except the cape. A combination of models and a gut feeling just tell me different. Not being a weenie. I think at least 3-6 for eastern Nassau and Suffolk is very reasonable right now with totals going up over the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think HPC may be right, GFS is a fluke. I'd ignore it for now... CRAS agrees with the GFS lmao-- like that really matters lol. Still, Im not going to lean one way or the other until 0z tonight Who knows, we might get a Christmas present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 we have to wait for 00z tonight...that will be the real teller. The JMA however supports the GFS solution so its not complety on its own. The ukmet which has been OTS for days also took a big shift NW. The threat is far from dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 CRAS agrees with the GFS lmao That should be an indication that the GFS is smoking some good stuff right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 we have to wait for 00z tonight...that will be the real teller. The JMA however supports the GFS solution so its not complety on its own. The ukmet which has been OTS for days also took a big shift NW. The threat is far from dead. The UKMET did not shift at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just back from shopping - nice present from GFS. Its funny how the GFS is trending to the old Euro forecasts while the Euro is doing the opposite. For now have to discount the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think I'm just about done with this. The Euro is actually EAST of its prior runs, other models shifted west but not hugely, and the GFS clearly suffered from init errors and should be tossed, in all likelihood it shifts back east later. We really need a perfect setup to get us our storm at this point and the window is about closed. It doesn't mean we see no snow, but I wouldn't count on amounts much greater than a few inches. Time to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The UKMET did not shift at all. NOGAPs didn't move either and although it stinks it didn't trend which is probably the key. GGEM came west some but as NCEP notes: THE NEW UKMET/CANADIAN ARE DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE FOR INITIALIZATION SINCE WE RECEIVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DATA. HOWEVER...THEIR SOLUTIONS LIE WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ONCE THE INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS PHASE TO PRODUCE THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE CASE. THUS...INITIAL RECOMMENDATIONS ARE PRESERVED WITH CONTINUITY MOST PREFERRED. Embarassing that these types of errors can arise in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The UKMET did not shift at all. yes it did....at least the precip field has...now brushes the coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think I'm just about done with this. The Euro is actually EAST of its prior runs, other models shifted west but not hugely, and the GFS clearly suffered from init errors and should be tossed, in all likelihood it shifts back east later. We really need a perfect setup to get us our storm at this point and the window is about closed. It doesn't mean we see no snow, but I wouldn't count on amounts much greater than a few inches. Time to move on. I thought I'd moved on yesterday, then the GFS sucked me back in. I admit, I'm a sucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 yes Tombo...it was based on how it looked per your discussion at 48-54rs. Then from what I understand it shifts eastward. You mentioned it sped up the S/W slightly..I wonder if that is causing the differences. Seems like the other models have been trending slower. yea initially like you said it was closer to the coast, but that could of been thrown off cause of how slow it was not sure...in the end its a good bit further east...who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 yea initially like you said it was closer to the coast, but that could of been thrown off cause of how slow it was not sure...in the end its a good bit further east...who knows That was the big change on the 12z GFS, you could see how it accelerates the southern S/W at 24 hr. It lags behind on the euro, no one should really be jumping yet. I would if the shortwave becomes slower on the 18z GFS, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If you look at the 6Z GFS at 72 hours it is outside the benchmark and the 12Z GFS at 66 hours it is well inside the benchmark. That ought to tell you something about which model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm going with the GFS/CRAS/FIM/JMA.combo..anything that gives me snow..I'm desperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This has probably been answered before but what time do the Euro ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This has probably been answered before but what time do the Euro ensembles come out? 3:00-3:15 usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Did HPC ever say whether or not it thinks the error affected the GFS's solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 tom, any precip from the ULL? I'm kind of reaching but it would be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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