rossi Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:33 AM, tornadojay said: Tombo - I hate these precip maps. Lol. You'll be able to do totals better than me Great Job Tornado/Tombo - Hope you guys and only you guys do the GFS. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:32 AM, budice2002 said: Whats the qpf for DCA please Wrong subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:32 AM, earthlight said: Awesome run. Heavy snow for everybody. So I take it you think this run is pretty good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think we all have to agree....that whether certain things were caused by ingestion of bad data, model errors or anything else....we obviously are dealing with a complex, unique system and event here. Right now, it seems new York city might be close to getting 6" of snow....areas NE could see a foot. Heck, even Philadelphia and DC are not out of the game. So fun to watch this play out. Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:33 AM, tornadojay said: Tombo - I hate these precip maps. Lol. You'll be able to do totals better than me lol hahaha yea its rough lol nyc .9-1 phl .3-.4 ttn .5-.55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I caution everyone not to get too excited until you see the GFS. The NAM is just one model. While it looks good, it is just one model. Wait for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:33 AM, tombo82685 said: less than .1 I don't think DCA/BWI sees any precip on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FOUS has LGA at .8 thru 60 hrs. BOS has 1.68 thru 60 hrs. Looks like a nice hit along coastal areas, esp S NE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 tombo you mind giving numbers for ABE and MDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:34 AM, David Reimer said: I caution everyone not to get too excited until you see the GFS. The NAM is just one model. While it looks good, it is just one model. Wait for the GFS. it would be rare for nam to go west and gfs east at this point. But cautious optimism is smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:32 AM, earthlight said: Awesome run. Heavy snow for everybody. It so totally is and how cool is the timing? Pretty much all day Christmas Eve (well, except for the 12z euro) was magical and befuddling to WELL seasoned mets like Glenn. THAT in and of itself is cool, let alone the continuing potential for SECS/MECS and dare I say it, HECS...Seriously feelin' the love right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ALL of NJ now covered by at least .25 qpf including extreme SE PA and Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:34 AM, rossi said: <br /><font size="5">Great Job Tornado/Tombo - Hope you guys and only you guys do the GFS.<br /><br />Rossi</font><br /><br /><br /><br />No probs. The last thing I want to do is be an annoyance so tell me to be quiet if I am getting like that. I like just letting tombo do it but I can't contain the excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 on my snowfall totals for my maps, im assuming these are standard 10-1, so in reality it could be higher. phl 4 inches nyc 8-10 inches ttn 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Almost nothing unfortunately. On 12/25/2010 at 2:32 AM, budice2002 said: Whats the qpf for DCA please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:34 AM, algreek3 said: NYC gets over 1" of precip on this run. I predict the NWS puts up a Winter Storm Watch in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:35 AM, uofmiami said: FOUS has LGA at .8 thru 60 hrs. BOS has 1.68 thru 60 hrs. Looks like a nice hit along coastal areas, esp S NE! gut feeling tells me the precip fills in a bit west so areas like NYC and TTN will get more than what the nam is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:36 AM, 1234abc said: ALL of NJ now covered by at least .25 qpf including extreme SE PA and Philly. Not even close more like .75 Monmouth county on east - Lesser amounts to teh west Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:37 AM, tornadojay said: <br /><br /><br /> No probs. The last thing I want to do is be an annoyance so tell me to be quiet if I am getting like that. I like just letting tombo do it but I can't contain the excitement lol no, you chime in please...you have a vastly better meteorological background..ill just handle qpf lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:32 AM, earthlight said: Awesome run. Heavy snow for everybody. Not everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:32 AM, earthlight said: Awesome run. Heavy snow for everybody. John, I agree I will be interested to see what the GFS does in a little while, Would you venture a first call after seeing the GFS or would you wait until tomorrow afternoon ? Keep up the good work and Merry Christmas. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Any word on "initialization errors" yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:37 AM, tornadojay said: <br /><br /><br /> No probs. The last thing I want to do is be an annoyance so tell me to be quiet if I am getting like that. I like just letting tombo do it but I can't contain the excitement tornado- i have a question...now that we are basically 36 hours from the start of the event (further south) and the NAM is showing a 961mb low off of CC can it be that grossly off and nothing happens...at this point can this solution be way off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSU2 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Very tough to extrapolate totals given models are still trending. Not even sure the WRF is showing full potential. SREF showing near a 50% chance of 1.00 liquid just east of PHL. Given the situation, many forecasters (Including Myself) will be playing catch up. Very impressive wind enery also as the storm phases Wind Soundings are scary. Could see gusts close to 50 MPH even inland. ERIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nice western trend compared to NAM 18z but still east of GFS. Big difference in this area due to sharp qpf gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't think the NAM is done trending either folks. Major shift from 12z and 18z, but still not as impressive as the GFS which has been leading the steps westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:39 AM, Voyager said: Not everybody. Yeah, far from a big event for western Jersey on this run. But there's room for it to come a little more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:40 AM, OSU2 said: Very tough to extrapolate totals given models are still trending. Not even sure the WRF is showing full potential. SREF showing near a 50% chance of 1.00 liquid just east of PHL. Given the situation, many forecasters (Including Myself) will be playing catch up. Very impressive wind enery also as the storm phases Wind Soundings are scary. Could see gusts close to 50 MPH even inland. ERIC aaaah I asked the wind question earlier and no one responded, thanks... would feel more comfortable if the EC came around later tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 2:23 AM, weatherweather said: Even though its still slightly east, the fact that this run is even further west than the "errored" 12z and 18z nam is awesome Yes. Cannot emphasize enough how awesome this is. Suddenly SREFs are viable too! Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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