NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 5

[tombo82685]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:10 PM, Noreaster85 said:

the euro is known for making small run to run corrections. looks like we got exactly what we didn't want to see...a slight jog to the west leaving all of us wondering who to believe. Sounds like at the moment a comprimise between the GFS and Euro are on order. Perhaps similar too or slightly less than the JMA. All major models shifted northwest...some more than others...so it would appear their is something going on here a little deeper than initialization errors. I'll be interested to see if the euro ensemble mean shifts westward.

the euro is further east...0z gave sne good qpf this run it gives them virtually nothing outside cape cod and ack...even that was cut down significantly

[Snow_Miser]

The plot thickens.... lol this is a confusing storm. Be back in a few.

[JTA66]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:10 PM, algreek3 said:

Not if 18z GFS and NAM go way east. If they do, it's over.

I have to agree. We're running out of time for trends. The 12Z GFS may have been a hiccup, similar to what the Euro did last Thursday. Most guidance is still OTS.

[A-L-E-X]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:13 PM, Kingwill said:

So basically Euro went from showing Coastal Bomb for days while everything else was OTS..now a lot more models have come west while it goes East.. Crazy stuff !

I think the same thing happened with the last "storm", but in reverse.

[TwcMan]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:13 PM, Kingwill said:

So basically Euro went from showing Coastal Bomb for days while everything else was OTS..now a lot more models have come west while it goes East.. Crazy stuff !

sounds to me like it's in last place in the race lol

[ag3]

Does anyone have KMA? It been way east. Would be interested to see how 12z looks.

[tornadojay]

This is good distraction stuff as I shop for baby clothes at babies r us. It's like a soap opera

[Kingwill]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:10 PM, algreek3 said:

Not if 18z GFS and NAM go way east. If they do, it's over.

Nothing is Over at 18Z , 0Z tonight or even 12Z tomorrow is more like it..

[IsentropicLift]

The FIM, which has been consistent on an OTS solution for days now, has come way west. Big hit for NYC/LI.

[famartin]

I think HPC may be right, GFS is a fluke. I'd ignore it for now...

[_AR_]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:17 PM, Noreaster85 said:

The FIM, which has been consistent on an OTS solution for days now, has come way west. Big hit for NYC/LI.

Uses GFS initialization data. May have the same errors.

[IsentropicLift]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:15 PM, tombo82685 said:

the euro is further east...0z gave sne good qpf this run it gives them virtually nothing outside cape cod and ack...even that was cut down significantly

yes Tombo...it was based on how it looked per your discussion at 48-54rs. Then from what I understand it shifts eastward. You mentioned it sped up the S/W slightly..I wonder if that is causing the differences. Seems like the other models have been trending slower.

[Bobby]

I just don't see this being a complete miss for everyone except the cape. A combination of models and a gut feeling just tell me different. Not being a weenie. I think at least 3-6 for eastern Nassau and Suffolk is very reasonable right now with totals going up over the next 36 hours.

[A-L-E-X]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:19 PM, famartin said:

I think HPC may be right, GFS is a fluke. I'd ignore it for now...

CRAS agrees with the GFS lmao-- like that really matters lol. Still, Im not going to lean one way or the other until 0z tonight Who knows, we might get a Christmas present

[IsentropicLift]

we have to wait for 00z tonight...that will be the real teller. The JMA however supports the GFS solution so its not complety on its own. The ukmet which has been OTS for days also took a big shift NW. The threat is far from dead.

[earthlight]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:22 PM, A-L-E-X said:

CRAS agrees with the GFS lmao

That should be an indication that the GFS is smoking some good stuff right now.

[tmagan]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:23 PM, Noreaster85 said:

we have to wait for 00z tonight...that will be the real teller. The JMA however supports the GFS solution so its not complety on its own. The ukmet which has been OTS for days also took a big shift NW. The threat is far from dead.

The UKMET did not shift at all.

[chubbs]

Just back from shopping - nice present from GFS. Its funny how the GFS is trending to the old Euro forecasts while the Euro is doing the opposite. For now have to discount the GFS.

[jm1220]

I think I'm just about done with this. The Euro is actually EAST of its prior runs, other models shifted west but not hugely, and the GFS clearly suffered from init errors and should be tossed, in all likelihood it shifts back east later. We really need a perfect setup to get us our storm at this point and the window is about closed. It doesn't mean we see no snow, but I wouldn't count on amounts much greater than a few inches. Time to move on.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:24 PM, tmagan said:

The UKMET did not shift at all.

NOGAPs didn't move either and although it stinks it didn't trend which is probably the key. GGEM came west some but as NCEP notes:

THE NEW UKMET/CANADIAN ARE DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE FOR

INITIALIZATION SINCE WE RECEIVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DATA.

HOWEVER...THEIR SOLUTIONS LIE WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE

GUIDANCE ONCE THE INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS PHASE TO PRODUCE THE

DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE CASE.

THUS...INITIAL RECOMMENDATIONS ARE PRESERVED WITH CONTINUITY MOST

PREFERRED.

Embarassing that these types of errors can arise in 2010.

[IsentropicLift]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:24 PM, tmagan said:

The UKMET did not shift at all.

yes it did....at least the precip field has...now brushes the coastline

[famartin]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:25 PM, jm1220 said:

I think I'm just about done with this. The Euro is actually EAST of its prior runs, other models shifted west but not hugely, and the GFS clearly suffered from init errors and should be tossed, in all likelihood it shifts back east later. We really need a perfect setup to get us our storm at this point and the window is about closed. It doesn't mean we see no snow, but I wouldn't count on amounts much greater than a few inches. Time to move on.

I thought I'd moved on yesterday, then the GFS sucked me back in. I admit, I'm a sucker

[tombo82685]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:20 PM, Noreaster85 said:

yes Tombo...it was based on how it looked per your discussion at 48-54rs. Then from what I understand it shifts eastward. You mentioned it sped up the S/W slightly..I wonder if that is causing the differences. Seems like the other models have been trending slower.

yea initially like you said it was closer to the coast, but that could of been thrown off cause of how slow it was not sure...in the end its a good bit further east...who knows

[Riptide]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:27 PM, tombo82685 said:

yea initially like you said it was closer to the coast, but that could of been thrown off cause of how slow it was not sure...in the end its a good bit further east...who knows

That was the big change on the 12z GFS, you could see how it accelerates the southern S/W at 24 hr. It lags behind on the euro, no one should really be jumping yet.

I would if the shortwave becomes slower on the 18z GFS, though.

[tmagan]

If you look at the 6Z GFS at 72 hours it is outside the benchmark and the 12Z GFS at 66 hours it is well inside the benchmark. That ought to tell you something about which model is correct.

[KEITH L.I]

I'm going with the GFS/CRAS/FIM/JMA.combo..anything that gives me snow..I'm desperate

[TwcMan]

This has probably been answered before but what time do the Euro ensembles come out?

[Porsche]

  On 12/24/2010 at 6:37 PM, TwcMan said:

This has probably been answered before but what time do the Euro ensembles come out?

3:00-3:15 usually

[mattinpa]

Did HPC ever say whether or not it thinks the error affected the GFS's solution?

[NortheastPAWx]

tom, any precip from the ULL? I'm kind of reaching but it would be something.