Warm SW, US, long streak of above normal coming,~5years

[StormchaserChuck!]

SW, US High pressure/temps severely lead us here, relative to time,(warm 2 months = warm +2-4months later here, 2 years = 3rd year, etc, it's like ~68%/50). This warm SW has established since 2000, but really picked up in the last 1.5 years, dominate High pressure despite -PNA, other drivers. I think we will see a streak of warm Winter's, El Nino is the only thing that can save us. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think you’re grasping here

[Roger Smith]

Putin has a plan to change all that. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

*years

It's probably a higher probability for the Winter though. 

It's not going to chagne the 5-year weather

[StormchaserChuck!]

On 4/12/2022 at 7:39 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think you’re grasping here

The pattern is so stable., Give it 10 years, or 7to10 years, and I bet any amount of money the eastern 2/3 of US are warmer than average>climotrends, SW->2-3xeast

[hardypalmguy]

The midwest/lakes has largely been in cool anomalies while the rest of the world ratcheted up in warmth in recent years.  Once the "false bubble" of cool anomalies move out of this area, the warmth is going to be unmistakable.

[psuhoffman]

I think the problem is the standard anomaly deviates from the linear regression mean and so we can expect a normal hemispheric response with fluctuations in the zonal phase of the oscillations. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Problem is actually land vs water, and how its modeled, and how it seperates right now. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I also think we have a higher chance for El Nino in the coming Winter's, 5/9 (warm,neutral,cold).. unless the -pool streak continues, which it might, +5-year streak or something (See Dec2010 vs DEc 2021 research). [2000 was start of cold, 2005 was start of cold, 2010 was start of cold. <They are like "puts" in the GW.]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 down, 4 to go. I think we'll have more of an El Nino/+PNA in those 4 Winter's, but when it's not we could bake. Also, the SW is finishing colder this Winter for the first time in a long time.. good news for us for colder eventually back east (SW, US). 

[Terpeast]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

1 down, 4 to go. I think we'll have more of an El Nino/+PNA in those 4 Winter's, but when it's not we could bake. Also, the SW is finishing colder this Winter for the first time in a long time.. good news for us for colder eventually back east (SW, US). 

Your analyses have been making a lot of sense these days. Nice work. 

[fujiwara79]

I need a decoder ring to understand @Stormchaserchuck1 but it sounds accurate