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Warm SW, US, long streak of above normal coming,~5years


StormchaserChuck!
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SW, US High pressure/temps severely lead us here, relative to time,(warm 2 months = warm +2-4months later here, 2 years = 3rd year, etc, it's like ~68%/50). This warm SW has established since 2000, but really picked up in the last 1.5 years, dominate High pressure despite -PNA, other drivers. I think we will see a streak of warm Winter's, El Nino is the only thing that can save us. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

I also think we have a higher chance for El Nino in the coming Winter's, 5/9 (warm,neutral,cold).. unless the -pool streak continues, which it might, +5-year streak or something (See Dec2010 vs DEc 2021 research). [2000 was start of cold, 2005 was start of cold, 2010 was start of cold. <They are like "puts" in the GW.]

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  • 9 months later...
5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

1 down, 4 to go. I think we'll have more of an El Nino/+PNA in those 4 Winter's, but when it's not we could bake. Also, the SW is finishing colder this Winter for the first time in a long time.. good news for us for colder eventually back east (SW, US). 

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Your analyses have been making a lot of sense these days. Nice work. 

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