StormchaserChuck! Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 SW, US High pressure/temps severely lead us here, relative to time,(warm 2 months = warm +2-4months later here, 2 years = 3rd year, etc, it's like ~68%/50). This warm SW has established since 2000, but really picked up in the last 1.5 years, dominate High pressure despite -PNA, other drivers. I think we will see a streak of warm Winter's, El Nino is the only thing that can save us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 11, 2022 Author Share Posted April 11, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 I think you’re grasping here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Putin has a plan to change all that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 *years It's probably a higher probability for the Winter though. It's not going to chagne the 5-year weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 17, 2022 Author Share Posted April 17, 2022 On 4/12/2022 at 7:39 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I think you’re grasping here The pattern is so stable., Give it 10 years, or 7to10 years, and I bet any amount of money the eastern 2/3 of US are warmer than average>climotrends, SW->2-3xeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 The midwest/lakes has largely been in cool anomalies while the rest of the world ratcheted up in warmth in recent years. Once the "false bubble" of cool anomalies move out of this area, the warmth is going to be unmistakable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 21, 2022 Share Posted April 21, 2022 I think the problem is the standard anomaly deviates from the linear regression mean and so we can expect a normal hemispheric response with fluctuations in the zonal phase of the oscillations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 24, 2022 Author Share Posted April 24, 2022 Problem is actually land vs water, and how its modeled, and how it seperates right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 15, 2022 Author Share Posted May 15, 2022 I also think we have a higher chance for El Nino in the coming Winter's, 5/9 (warm,neutral,cold).. unless the -pool streak continues, which it might, +5-year streak or something (See Dec2010 vs DEc 2021 research). [2000 was start of cold, 2005 was start of cold, 2010 was start of cold. <They are like "puts" in the GW.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 down, 4 to go. I think we'll have more of an El Nino/+PNA in those 4 Winter's, but when it's not we could bake. Also, the SW is finishing colder this Winter for the first time in a long time.. good news for us for colder eventually back east (SW, US). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 1 down, 4 to go. I think we'll have more of an El Nino/+PNA in those 4 Winter's, but when it's not we could bake. Also, the SW is finishing colder this Winter for the first time in a long time.. good news for us for colder eventually back east (SW, US). Your analyses have been making a lot of sense these days. Nice work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 I need a decoder ring to understand @Stormchaserchuck1 but it sounds accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now