OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Radar is blossoming to my SW, first severe thunderstorm watch of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 This is incredible for Iowa. I reminds me of Pilger Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Not that this is breaking news, but tomorrow still looks a bit messy. Not sure what to think locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Not that this is breaking news, but tomorrow still looks a bit messy. Not sure what to think locally.A bit messy is an understatement.It’s pretty much NAM’s vs all right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 I missed a lot of this stuff today, but here is a radar image of a possible tornado at the MN/IA border right now. radar is from ARX, generally south of Minneapolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 tornado debris signature at Spring Valley, MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 huge field of opportunities for updraft helicity tracks tomorrow. Some models have helicity tracks near Terre Haute and Evansville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Not that this is breaking news, but tomorrow still looks a bit messy. Not sure what to think locally. Yea. That southern stream system backs the 500 mb flow to its north. It's a bubble of weak shear and crapvection that has to get out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Looking like any good threat across IL today will be limited to along and south of I-70. Should be more marginal to slight worthy at best across C and N IL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Morning stuff like this always kills the afternoon potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 2 hours ago, RyanDe680 said: Morning stuff like this always kills the afternoon potential. Not true... there are exceptions. Need to evaluate on a case by case basis as a couple hours of recovery either way can have a sig impact on a severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Tornado Watch up for S IL into SE MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Enhanced dropped from central IL just as the sun comes out to laugh. If it isn't cleared out by 8:30am anymorr I lose hope, and even then we usually get a surprise capping. Give me some thunder amd I'll be contemt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Should note that the HRRR has done a great job the past two days, even from at it's longer ranges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Got on the Iowa storm of the day but missed the Gilmore City tornado by waiting at/on IA-3 just east of Humboldt for the storm to come to me (not wanting to get behind by having to go back through town due to anticipated fast storm speeds, and not wanting to tangle with the forward flank core due to high potential for large hail). If only it had had an additional classic tornado cycle or two during daylight, I would have been in great position for those, but alas. Still a fun (if exhausting, 12 hours straight on the roads after working 3AM-noon Tuesday) chase. It got a little hairy as I raced up I-35 to US-18 east at Mason City with the forward flank core encroaching on the highway to my north and the "business end" of the supercell (with recently reported tornado north of Belmond/west of Thornton) to my west. I got a lightning-lit glimpse of what appeared to be a large wall cloud with "beaver tail" extending toward the forward flank core. I took 18 all the way home, with the supercell an increasing distance (10s of miles) to my northwest based on radar, but there still seemed to be lightning all around me. The Riceville tornado apparently occurred just after I got out of Charles City radio range, and by the time I got home shortly after 12:30 AM, the supercell was gone and all warnings on the MCS dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Well, we have a warned cell north of Joliet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Severe t'storm warning for portions of the metro, including here at home. Peak wind gusts of 50-55MPH here with this activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Confirmed EF-2 tornado in Taopi MN last night. Destroyed much of that tiny town. https://m.startribune.com/storms-inflict-heavy-damage-on-taopi-in-mower-county/600164599/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 There is some serious wind up and down this massive line. In Kentucky and Mississippi there’s for sure hurricane force winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 000 SXUS71 KILN 141347 RERDAY RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 946 AM EDT THU APR 14 2022 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DAYTON OH... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.15 WAS SET AT DAYTON OH YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.07 SET IN 1991. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 16 hours ago, nwohweather said: There is some serious wind up and down this massive line. In Kentucky and Mississippi there’s for sure hurricane force winds I ended up on 64 in shelby county kentucky. Pretty sure i was in a circulation but could not punch in front of the line as the winds were incredibly intense and visibility was all of 5 feet. I finally called it quits after being in it for a solid 30 minutes. Most intense driving ive experienced. One hell of a storm. And FWIW a mesonet station in Shelby county recorded a 75 mph gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 EF0 tornado confirmed in southern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 On 4/13/2022 at 11:12 AM, Hoosier said: Not true... there are exceptions. Need to evaluate on a case by case basis as a couple hours of recovery either way can have a sig impact on a severe threat. problem is when you have cloud deck with no sun, no recovery. we've seen that time and time when 8-10am rains come in with no recovery period to follow. Hopefully, that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: problem is when you have cloud deck with no sun, no recovery. we've seen that time and time when 8-10am rains come in with no recovery period to follow. Hopefully, that changes. We got the rain to move out fairly early, but it stayed cloudy as you mentioned. Just off the top of my head, a few events that had preceding rain or clouds and then produced a good amount of severe wx in the LOT cwa are 4/20/04, 6/5/10 and 6/30/14... granted they mainly impacted areas near/south of I-80. I don't think we were all that far away from having a more significant severe wx episode in the area on Wed. I mean, even with all the clouds, ORD managed to reach the low 70s and dews got into the low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: We got the rain to move out fairly early, but it stayed cloudy as you mentioned. Just off the top of my head, a few events that had preceding rain or clouds and then produced a good amount of severe wx in the LOT cwa are 4/20/04, 6/5/10 and 6/30/14... granted they mainly impacted areas near/south of I-80. I don't think we were all that far away from having a more significant severe wx episode in the area on Wed. I mean, even with all the clouds, ORD managed to reach the low 70s and dews got into the low 60s. Early day precip/clouds become much less of an issue as we go into the summer months. The baseline moisture and ability to rapidly warm at the surface really mitigates those risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 44 minutes ago, madwx said: Early day precip/clouds become much less of an issue as we go into the summer months. The baseline moisture and ability to rapidly warm at the surface really mitigates those risks. Yeah, I can buy it being easier to overcome later in spring and summer. How many days in summer do we have dews in the 70s? A lot. Even if moisture temporarily gets depleted by an early day MCS or whatever, it doesn't take much to replenish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, I can buy it being easier to overcome later in spring and summer. How many days in summer do we have dews in the 70s? A lot. Even if moisture temporarily gets depleted by an early day MCS or whatever, it doesn't take much to replenish. In the summer you can get decent CAPE without super steep mid-level lapse rates because there's more moisture. In the spring mid-level lapse rates are everything. Once large scale convective precipitation occurs, it not only cools the boundary layer, it warms the mid and upper levels through latent heat release. You can't really recover the cold temps aloft with surface heating alone. They need to advect back in from the west. That's my take on it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 Another problem with the last system was there was a more subtle southern stream vort lobe that came around the base of the larger trough at the wrong time. This smaller wave had enough deep dynamic lift to trigger a lot of morning precip over the warm sector. That wrecked the steep mid-level lapse rates that were in place ahead of the system the day before. It also backed the 500 mb flow north of it so much that the deep level shear was gone until it finally sheared out to the north late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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