SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Little Rock AFB is observing a tornado now. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 For sure is cycling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Ongoing severe threat with isolated tornadoes across Arkansas… may continue for a few more hours, toward the greater Memphis area. Trying to wrap my head around the local threat in Oklahoma tomorrow. Convection seems obvious near the triple point up near Nebraska/Iowa. Confidence is otherwise growing lower of initiation along the dryline in Kansas, but it’s still possible. The only models remaining with substantial CI in Oklahoma are the Euro and RGEM. FV3 seems a bit more subdued, although it has a tendency to over convect anyway. A few ARW members hint at very isolated CI as well. HRRR, NSSL WRF and 3km NAM all show nothing, despite a minimally capped environment near peak heating. What caught my eye is that the RAP/NAM both show a shortwave crossing across North Texas toward eastern Oklahoma around 21-00z. Given the orientation of the dryline and local climatology, I’d think that at least one storm tries to go up in southwestern/south-central Oklahoma. Not sold on storm intensity or longevity, but it’s a very difficult forecast from a public awareness standpoint. Oh yeah, we’ll probably see some strong/severe convection in North Texas toward the Arklatex well. SREF odds of convective precip, in vicinity of favorable instability: Wednesday is complicated. If early day convection doesn’t lead to a mess, it will be a day to remember. Even if there is ongoing convection (East Texas toward the Arklamiss area), there seems to be good model agreement with a broken line of convection with embedded supercells sweeping across Arkansas and southeastern Missouri in the afternoon. Shear vectors tend to line up more parallel with the boundary there, but some hodograph curvature still supports a tornado risk. Even if it evolves as a total mess of convection, I’d be surprised if there isn’t at least 1-2 long-track and/or intense supercells, somewhere in the AR/MO/MS/W TN vicinity, given the degree of shear and moist low-levels; low LCLs. I think we’re in the midst of one of the more profound multi day early spring stretches, that I can recall, in recent memory. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 15 hours ago, Powerball said: Models have consistently shown a weak MCV tracking across East Central TX and Western LA during peak heating tomorrow, which (if legit) should help to trigger fairly extensive activity down there. That said, it might it up leaving somewhat of a "lull" in the coverage of activity to the north of it and to the south of the areas closer to the main trough in KS / IA / NE / MO. 000 FXUS64 KTSA 120856 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 356 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... The prospects for severe storms forming to the west along the dryline late this afternoon and migrating into our area this evening appear low due to subsidence behind the subtropical wavementioned above. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Lingering storms with the wave this evening will be moving out early, and most of the night is then likely to be quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 15 hours ago, Powerball said: Models have consistently shown a weak MCV tracking across East Central TX and Western LA during peak heating tomorrow, which (if legit) should help to trigger fairly extensive activity down there. That said, it might it up leaving somewhat of a "lull" in the coverage of activity to the north of it and to the south of the areas closer to the main trough in KS / IA / NE / MO. 5 minutes ago, Powerball said: 000 FXUS64 KTSA 120856 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 356 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... The prospects for severe storms forming to the west along the dryline late this afternoon and migrating into our area this evening appear low due to subsidence behind the subtropical wavementioned above. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Lingering storms with the wave this evening will be moving out early, and most of the night is then likely to be quiet. 000 FXUS64 KOUN 120844 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 344 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Severe Weather: A highly conditional risk for severe weather exists to the east of the dryline this afternoon, with uncertainty higher than normal regarding storm initiation. Much of the uncertainty is related to the degree of capping as well as the degree of subsidence that will be over our area in the wake of a southern stream wave clearly evident on water vapor imagery currently ejecting out of northern Mexico. The timing and positioning of the wave will be such that much of our area will be too far north and west to benefit from any lift associated with the wave and will instead be in the subsident region of the wave during peak heating this afternoon. With the parent upper trough still well to our west across the Rockies we do not expect much in the way of broader large scale ascent or mid-level cooling to help initiate storms. It will therefore be mainly up to the dryline circulation as our main forcing mechanism for convective initiation this afternoon. Models have been fairly consistent in their lack of support for convective initiation across much of the area (outside of the ECM model) for days now, which does not add confidence we will see much activity at all this afternoon. However, models are not infallible (see yesterday`s convection across southeast OK) and forecast soundings show little to no CIN remaining along the dryline by 21z this afternoon. It would not take much more than some localized backing/convergence along the dryline to lead to initiation. So while we are currently not expecting widespread coverage of storms, it is entirely possible we see one or two thunderstorms along the dryline by late this afternoon. Perhaps the most likely scenario will be thunderstorms developing and moving into our area out of north Texas on the northern periphery of the southern stream wave, with little to no activity developing across portions of north-central Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 HRRR (t0 be expected) seems like the only high res model with the storms in STX and Mexico. I think it is nowcast time, off hour balloons, maybe local NWS offices mention AMDAR. I don't know what is happening today. Not sure anybody does. Speaking of 18Z or 20Z balloons, SJT or EWX should be a balloon site. Nothing between Del Rio and FWD balloons (or Houston (no balloon at all)). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 DFW 12Z sounding looks like a forged steel cap 94F convective temp, still plenty of CAPE, if the cap can erode. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/22041212_OBS/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: DFW 12Z sounding looks like a forged steel cap 94F convective temp, still plenty of CAPE, if the cap can erode. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/22041212_OBS/ FWD doing launches at 18z and 20z also 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 ENH risk now just in TX including DFW metro... SLGT risk in OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 36 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: DFW 12Z sounding looks like a forged steel cap 94F convective temp, still plenty of CAPE, if the cap can erode. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/22041212_OBS/ FWIW, 94*F is just the convective temperature right now. As the airmass is modified throughout the day at different levels in the atmosphere, the convective temperature can increase or decrease. In today's case, the height falls / cooling mid-levels expected, steady advection of low-level moisture keeping dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and a shortwave that will enhance the forcing of updrafts should all help to lower the convective temps and erode the cap more efficiently than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 D1 Mod out for Iowa SPC AC 121311 Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and tonight across a broad portion of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Some of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Central Plains/Middle Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Portions of west-central/north-central Iowa have been upgraded to a Categorical Moderate Risk, with a somewhat focused potential for tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds expected late this afternoon and evening near the surface low and nearby triple point/warm front vicinity. Potentially intense thunderstorm development, including surface-based convection and elevated storms to the north of the northward-shifting warm front, is expected by late afternoon across eastern Nebraska/northwest Iowa/southeast Minnesota generally near the surface low/triple point. Moisture return across the warm sector will be relatively modest (generally upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), but will be sufficient for the development of moderate buoyancy due to the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures aloft. Wind profiles will be quite favorable for supercells near the triple point and in the vicinity of the warm front, with very strong deep-layer shear and enlarged low-level hodographs. Any discrete supercells that develop within this regime will be capable of all severe hazards, including the potential for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Later this evening, more widespread/southward-spatially expanding convection is expected along the eastward-surging cold front, resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat this evening. Damaging winds aside, a tornado threat will also exist with any embedded circulations within the line of frontal convection given the robust magnitude of low-level winds (upwards of 60-70 kt) in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Overall storm intensity will tend to diminish by early in the overnight. ...Central/North Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... A southern-stream/lead shortwave trough nearing the south Texas/Mexico border vicinity this morning will continue northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss through evening. Storms may develop as soon as mid-afternoon near the dryline as it extends across north/west-central Texas. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will favor a few eastward-moving supercells and/or organized clusters into late afternoon/early evening. Moderate-to-strong buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a threat of very large hail and severe wind gusts with the strongest cells/clusters. Any supercells that can persist into the richer low-level moisture east of the dryline may also pose some tornado threat. An additional/somewhat separate corridor of potentially severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening farther east across far east Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas. While the details are a bit unclear, strengthening deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy would be supportive of at least some hail/wind potential, and low-level shear/helicity, enhanced by a diurnally sustained branch of the low-level jet, may be sufficient for a couple of tornadoes as well. ...Central/eastern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas... A conditionally favorable supercell environment will exist late this afternoon into evening along and ahead of the dryline that will exist from central Kansas southward into west-central Oklahoma. However, this region will be between the main mid-level trough and surface low to the north, and the ejecting low-amplitude shortwave trough to the south. Most convection-allowing models continue to show very little signal for deep convective initiation in this region. However, some global guidance such as multiple runs of the ECMWF depict isolated development across central Oklahoma, and this may be plausible given ample post-dryline heating/mixing and confluence/modest convergence near the dryline. If/where storms develop and sustain, localized intense/significant severe weather may occur. Very large hail would be a possibility and a tornado risk will likely exist as well, especially if any storms are sustained through early/mid-evening as low-level hodographs further enlarge. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/12/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1349Z (8:49AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Any Aggies know if they'll release a balloon today? Rice/UH students have some kind of club and occasionally release a balloon, I have to hope aircraft AMDAR data to HGX makes it to RAP and HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Latest run of the HRRR gives us a lone supercell to watch for in OK. I'm considering leaving Tulsa to wait around Pauls Valley to see if anything fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Thunderstorms developing near LRD, where, theoretically, the cap should be stronger than almost anywhere else in Texas. Might even be hail near Hebbronville Not seeing it on 12Z/14Z guidance, the disturbance is clear on satellite, but I think Monterrey is the only RAOB site in that part of Mexico and the SW looks mostly N of there.. Edit to Add: NWS CRP has a special weather statement for small hail and 40 mph winds. Another edit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 SEL0 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and northwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway south of Abilene, in an environment that favors continued expansion and intensification of the storms through the afternoon. A mix of multicell clusters and some supercell structures will be possible, with an attendant threat for large hail up to tennis ball size, and damaging outflow gusts up to 70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Mineral Wells TX to 75 miles south southwest of Brownwood TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 60/40 tor and 95/95 hail probs on the midwest watch SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Northeast Nebraska Extreme southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell development will be possible in the next couple of hours, near and east of a surface cyclone along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. The storm environment will continue to become more favorable for a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong) and very large hail, if storms can mature quickly enough in the relatively narrow, unstable warm sector near the warm front. Damaging winds will also be possible, especially late this evening when storms could grow upscale into a squall line along the cold front approaching from the west. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Yankton SD to 45 miles south of Sioux City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 110... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 The parameters in and near Iowa along and south of the warm front are pretty crazy. One SCP spot showing up of 36. STP up to 6-8. Helicity 400-600. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 40/20 tor probs but 60/50 hail SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 410 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and north Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 410 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to spread eastward across central Texas, with some tendency for new development northeastward toward Dallas-Fort Worth, and southward to near Austin. The storm environment will gradually become more favorable for embedded supercells into this evening, with the potential for a couple of tornadoes, isolated very large hail, and damaging gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Corsicana TX to 55 miles south southwest of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 110...WW 111... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Tornado Warning TXC027-099-122245- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0033.220412T2201Z-220412T2245Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 501 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Coryell County in central Texas... North central Bell County in central Texas... * Until 545 PM CDT. * At 500 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles north of Fort Hood, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Mother Neff State Park around 540 PM CDT. McGregor around 545 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Oglesby. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3131 9790 3145 9751 3132 9742 3124 9734 3119 9786 TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 255DEG 27KT 3125 9780 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ Bonnette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 80mph possible winds heading towards the metroplex, this is gonna get interesting. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 https://twitter.com/themattphelps/status/1514005247500369920?t=Wzg3w5QzcXpO1Q5qSUMxYg&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Williamson County tor warned storm, as seen on Twitter, has 'the look'/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Wow tornado warnings really popping off in central tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 WOUS64 KWNS 122207 WOU3 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 113 New watch up in the midwest. 80/60 tor probs, 80/10 wind, 80/70 hail NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 510 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022 TORNADO WATCH 113 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IAC025-027-033-047-063-069-073-079-081-091-109-147-151-161-187- 189-195-197-130300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.220412T2210Z-220413T0300Z/ IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CARROLL CERRO GORDO CRAWFORD EMMET FRANKLIN GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS SAC WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT MNC013-043-047-091-147-161-165-130300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0113.220412T2210Z-220413T0300Z/ MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH FARIBAULT FREEBORN MARTIN STEELE WASECA WATONWAN ATTN...WFO...DMX...MPX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 In laws live in Saledo. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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