SmokeEater Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 MD out also for NE TX and AR, watch likely. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Tornado Watch coming soon for SE Oklahoma, SW Arkansas and NETexas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Just now, Powerball said: Tornado Watch coming soon for SE Oklahoma, SW Arkansas and NETexas... Mesoscale Discussion 0447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Areas affected...portions of southeast Oklahoma and extreme northeast Texas into western and central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 111934Z - 112130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storm development is likely over the next few hours. Scattered damaging gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes are all likely, and a strong tornado or two is also possible. A Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...An elongated 1006 mb surface low continues to meander east across northern Texas, with the triple point situated along the Red River near GLE, and a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone draped along a line roughly from ADM to FSM per latest surface observations. A deepening cumulus field has already become established across eastern OK into northeast TX and western AR. The approach of a modest 500 mb vort max over the Southern Plains combined with adequate diurnal heating should foster an increase in thunderstorm development near the triple point and along the quasi-stationary baroclinic zone over the next few hours. The last few deterministic HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble runs suggest that storms may become established as early as 20Z. 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading mid 60s F surface dewpoints are contributing to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, with MLCINH continuing to erode with time. Modest veering/strengthening of the surface-700 mb flow yields modestly curved hodographs (via SRX and LZK VAD profilers), with supercell structures likely given the initial discrete storm mode expected. Damaging gusts and large hail may accompany any storm that can mature, and 2+ inch hail may also accompany the longer-lived robust supercells given the steep mid-level lapse rates. While the low-level jet continues to weaken and shift eastward towards the MS River, enough low-level directional shear should promote low-level rotation and tornado potential with the more persistent supercells. If supercells can remain discrete while propagating eastward into AR (closer to the low-level jet axis), a strong tornado or two may also occur. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/11/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33529699 34749558 35559441 35719322 35609207 35189163 34759162 33939222 33479328 33189416 33149512 33169582 33529699 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Watch area now NE of DFW, text not available yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 DFW 20z sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Reed is live streaming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 70/40 tor probs SEL7 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and central Arkansas East central and southeast Oklahoma Extreme northeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into this evening from southeast Oklahoma and extreme northeast Texas into western and central Arkansas. The storm environment favors a mix of discrete and clustered supercells capable of producing very large hail (near or larger than baseballs), damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes into early tonight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Poteau OK to 20 miles north northeast of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, radarman said: DFW 20z sounding Starting to see some agitation in the CU field west of Fort Worth and Denton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 The cell near Fort Smith is starting to show some rotation, though as it is it has a solid hail core. Edit; now tornado warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 42 minutes ago, Powerball said: Starting to see some agitation in the CU field west of Fort Worth and Denton Cell's trying to get going just SW of Denton, but it's really struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, Powerball said: Cell's trying to get going just SW of Denton, but it's really struggling. yeah, some early cap cannon fodder... maybe subsequent attempts might do a little better later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Just now, radarman said: yeah, some early cap cannon fodder... maybe subsequent attempts might do a little better later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Something might be developing on Reed's stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 . Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Looks like we might have some attempts at storm initiation over Denton County, TX. Nothing guaranteed though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 57 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: Looks like we might have some attempts at storm initiation over Denton County, TX. Nothing guaranteed though. It's really struggling. EDIT: "The little storm that could...I mean couldn't" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: It's really struggling. "The little storm that could" Thank goodness, because I don’t think anyone wants a damaging hailstorm over the Metroplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Nice write up for tomorrow by FWD... 000 FXUS64 KFWD 112005 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 305 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ...New Long Term... .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Monday/ While the longwave upper level trough will remain across the Intermountain West Tuesday before ejecting out in the plains Wednesday, the primary feature of interest to us is a strong shortwave trough currently near Baja that will rotate around the longwave and through Texas on Tuesday. It is rather unusual to be able to spot and track these shortwave disturbances so clearly on water vapor this time of the year, but being able to do so in the current data and in model potential vorticity forecast raises the confidence that strong forcing will spread over North and Central Texas Tuesday afternoon. Lift is just one of three important ingredients for convection. The second ingredient is moisture, and after a couple days of strong return flow off of the Gulf, we certainly have enough of that in place. The final ingredient is instability, and it`s the linchpin in this forecast. There will be instability below an inversion or cap, but that cap means the atmosphere is effectively stable and thus the 3rd ingredient is missing...that is unless the stable layer/cap can be eroded. There are a few ways to break a cap, one through heating and moistening of the surface airmass which is easy to predict and anticipate. The other is through dynamic lift, much harder for forecasters and computer models alike to predict. This explains why there are a variety of forecast solutions - ranging from widespread convection erupting over the region during the afternoon to nothing happening at all. (The models just don`t know how much of the cap to erode.) For the forecast I am leaning toward the more convectively active forecast solutions. The reason for this is that lifting of a cap is easier when the lapse rates above the cap are nearly dry adiabatic, which they will be tomorrow. This means that the lift tomorrow isn`t spent lifting/modifying a thermodynamically stable mid level. Instead the lift more effectively reaches down to the level of the capping inversion and cools that layer...allowing the very unstable air residing in the lowest part of the atmosphere to be realized in the form of convection. Given the strength of the forcing/lift and its timing, our storms may not wait for peak heating and may not initially form on the dryline like in our usual spring time severe weather events. Storms could form as early as 1 or 2 pm. Increasing wind fields ahead of the approaching shortwave trough will result in organized wind shear, meaning that once storms develop they will be capable of becoming supercells and producing a variety of severe weather. Very large hail (baseball or larger) is the primary threat, but damaging winds and tornadoes are also possible. Storms will rapidly move east and northeast through the afternoon and early evening hours. As the forcing from the shortwave trough moves out of the region during the evening hours we should see activity track east and the region may be in a lull for a few hours Tuesday night. An arriving cold front may spark up some additional showers and storms early Wednesday morning mainly across East and Central Texas. Severe weather is possible with this activity too, but the more linear storm mode and diminishing wind shear and instability suggest it`s a lower end threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Large TOG north of Little Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Tornado emergency with it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincy.wx Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 minute ago, mob1 said: Large TOG north of Little Rock. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Little Rock AR 813 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ARC045-085-119-120145- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0041.000000T0000Z-220412T0145Z/ Lonoke AR-Faulkner AR-Pulaski AR- 813 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CATO...GIBSON...OLMSTEAD...MACON...LITTLE ROCK AIR FORCE BASE... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN LONOKE...SOUTHEASTERN FAULKNER AND NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES... At 811 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Olmstead, or 8 miles west of Little Rock AFB, moving east at 35 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for CATO...GIBSON...OLMSTEAD...MACON...LITTLE ROCK AIR FORCE BASE!. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 I think this is a debris signature east of Mayflower Arkansas. If not, then there's a tornado emergency, so there's got to be a tornado on ground, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Just now, Chinook said: I think this is a debris signature east of Mayflower Arkansas. If not, then there's a tornado emergency, so there's got to be a tornado on ground, right? It's a bit muddied since it's so close to the radar site, I guess we'll need to wait for ground confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 What a massive swirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 https://katv.com/watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 https://www.kark.com/arkansas-storm-team-live-coverage/ "Catastrophic Tornado Likely" in their banner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 That’s a huge wedge radar - wow And for the first tins in months N/NE Texas had a big bust today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brandon.copic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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