Iceresistance Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 The models have been extremely consistent with severe weather 7-9 days from now (At least April 12th for starters) in the Southern Plains 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 SPC has a Slight Risk in place for Oklahoma & Texas on April 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Since 1986, 2022 to-date is already well ahead every other year for Tornado Warning count in FWD's CWA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 What happened to all the SE crew? Georgia is getting hammered all day and crickets on that forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, canderson said: What happened to all the SE crew? Georgia is getting hammered all day and crickets on that forum. SouthernWX is really active there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 The GFS has no severe weather at all for next week, it could be a terrible run. The GEFS though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: SouthernWX is really active there right now. Boo. It's sad we have sideboards, it's nice when everyone is here together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: Boo. It's sad we have sideboards, it's nice when everyone is here together. It's been around longer than AMWX, & it's also a excellent Southern forum, that's why the Southern Subforum here is relatively inactive. One of my weather forums has a sister forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Boo. It's sad we have sideboards, it's nice when everyone is here together. Agreed. I think we may just need to merge or something. If the instability can build a bit this afternoon the parameters are certainly there for a strong tornado, they already are in GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 1 hour ago, nwohweather said: Agreed. I think we may just need to merge or something. If the instability can build a bit this afternoon the parameters are certainly there for a strong tornado, they already are in GA Internal politics and personality clashes is the reason why that will never happen. It's why this forum, which in itself is already a conurbation of several long-defunct forums, has so many subforums for different regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 6, 2022 Author Share Posted April 6, 2022 Slight Risk now in place for D6 & D7 for the Southern Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hollie Maea Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Lots of time to change, but Michael Ventrice's experimental model is off the charts for next Wednesday. Never seen it like that. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?s=20&t=zD1Dt6rHpM6QgjSMqcdqtg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 6, 2022 Author Share Posted April 6, 2022 2 hours ago, Hollie Maea said: Lots of time to change, but Michael Ventrice's experimental model is off the charts for next Wednesday. Never seen it like that. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?s=20&t=zD1Dt6rHpM6QgjSMqcdqtg Already saw it, it's CRAZY! Keep in mind that it's 8 Days out, things will change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 This forum is sure absolutely dead for 3 outlooked areas next week in tornado alley..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: This forum is sure absolutely dead for 3 outlooked areas next week in tornado alley..... Part of it has been the all the rug pulls (until the most recent 2 events), with the storm mode always trending messy as we get closer in, or extensive cloud cover / capping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 Wait until Sunday. It'll be hopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 7, 2022 Author Share Posted April 7, 2022 We have 3 chances that this could get big, Wednesday has the highest potential. There is a trend where the storms have a tendency to slow down & be further west as well, if that's the case here, I may get Tripled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 7, 2022 Author Share Posted April 7, 2022 April 10th looks to be likely Capped out, & April 14th currently has too much uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 I think Tues and Wed have solid potential. Mon may not have enough moisture yet. Definitely worried about trough timing Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 8, 2022 Author Share Posted April 8, 2022 The D5 & D6 Slight Risk has shifted west again, that's kinda worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 On 4/6/2022 at 4:58 PM, Iceresistance said: Already saw it, it's CRAZY! Keep in mind that it's 8 Days out, things will change I haven't read on Mike's product yet, but that color table is suppose to match the SPC's outlook? That pink area doesn't represent a high risk type severity for all severe modes does it, if so I'd think something went wrong with the product! Its already changed to something reasonable however the former reminded me of the April 6-8 2006 event where there was this huge expanse of all severe modes that were also sig - an epic squall line further to the east than the Day 8 map. There was little difference between the 45% and 60% tor contours on the 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 8, 2022 Author Share Posted April 8, 2022 32 minutes ago, Torchageddon said: I haven't read on Mike's product yet, but that color table is suppose to match the SPC's outlook? That pink area doesn't represent a high risk type severity for all severe modes does it, if so I'd think something went wrong with the product! Its already changed to something reasonable however the former reminded me of the April 6-8 2006 event where there was this huge expanse of all severe modes that were also sig - an epic squall line further to the east than the Day 8 map. There was little difference between the 45% and 60% tor contours on the 7th. Yes, the Pink area matches the SPC's High Risk area, Ventrice's experimental automated forecast uses the colors for the SPC's Convective Outlook. (Thunderstorms, Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, & High (Could not find the Pink)) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 3 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Yes, the Pink area matches the SPC's High Risk area, Ventrice's experimental automated forecast uses the colors for the SPC's Convective Outlook. (Thunderstorms, Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, & High (Could not find the Pink)) It’s also changed substantially over the past couple of days. I advise extreme caution when looking at severe weather indicies more than 3-4 days out, especially when they’re *probably* based on a deterministic model, rather than ensembles. It’s also kind of silly to show high risk-equivalent graphics for a week out… A lot can change, but here are my initial thoughts: Monday looks like limited moisture return, especially with northward extent. I’d imagine the greatest threat remains across East Texas/Louisiana. Remember that we’re early in the season and antecedent dry conditions exist. Tuesday may have the greatest apparent threat. Dryline could mix slightly farther east than progged, due to ongoing drought conditions. Maybe a more “classic” April event just east of I-35? Parameter space looks volatile, along with deep shear vectors nearly perpendicular to the dryline. Not overhyping yet, but operational models have shown run-to-run signals for at least a couple of days now. Wednesday diverges in the models, but the threat should shift toward the Mississippi Valley. Wind fields are forecast to become more unidirectional with northward extent, along with less favorable moisture closer to an occluding surface low. Could be yet another threat around AR/LA/MS? Not sold on a farther north threat yet, but it’s still possible. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 8, 2022 Author Share Posted April 8, 2022 25 minutes ago, Quincy said: It’s also changed substantially over the past couple of days. I advise extreme caution when looking at severe weather indicies more than 3-4 days out, especially when they’re *probably* based on a deterministic model, rather than ensembles. It’s also kind of silly to show high risk-equivalent graphics for a week out… A lot can change, but here are my initial thoughts: Monday looks like limited moisture return, especially with northward extent. I’d imagine the greatest threat remains across East Texas/Louisiana. Remember that we’re early in the season and antecedent dry conditions exist. Tuesday may have the greatest apparent threat. Dryline could mix slightly farther east than progged, due to ongoing drought conditions. Maybe a more “classic” April event just east of I-35? Parameter space looks volatile, along with deep shear vectors nearly perpendicular to the dryline. Not overhyping yet, but operational models have shown run-to-run signals for at least a couple of days now. Wednesday diverges in the models, but the threat should shift toward the Mississippi Valley. Wind fields are forecast to become more unidirectional with northward extent, along with less favorable moisture closer to an occluding surface low. Could be yet another threat around AR/LA/MS? Not sold on a farther north threat yet, but it’s still possible. Wednesday does highly depend on the northward extent of the severe weather threat because some models have a MCV developing into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Large 30 percent added on days 4 and 5 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A substantial, multi-day severe thunderstorm event will continue on Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday across much of the central CONUS. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur. ...Day 4/Tuesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest... Medium-range guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement regarding the eastward progression of an upper trough across the western/central CONUS on Day 4/Tuesday. A deep surface cyclone is forecast to eject eastward across the central Plains through the day, reaching the vicinity of the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. Low-level moisture will advect rapidly northward ahead of the surface low and east of a dryline across parts of the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to be present over much of the warm sector, which should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability east of the dryline by Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level height falls and related ascent preceding the upper trough overspread the southern/central Plains, convection will likely initiate along the dryline from eastern KS to central TX. Even with deep-layer shear forecast to remain fairly modest through the day, the large reservoir of buoyancy will likely support robust severe thunderstorms. Large to very large hail should occur with initially discrete convection, and damaging winds will be a concern as convection grows upscale Tuesday night. Greater tornado potential may focus across the central Plains into parts of the Midwest/mid MS Valley, where better low-level shear should be present owing to a strengthening low-level jet. A 30% severe area has been included where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley/Midwest and Southeast... Convection still posing some severe threat may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South in a strong low-level warm advection regime. As the large-scale upper trough ejects eastward over the central CONUS, low-level moisture should continue to stream northward across the lower/mid MS Valley into parts of the Midwest. There are some differences in model guidance regarding the evolution of this upper trough on Day 5/Wednesday. Still, it appears likely that scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will develop across the broad warm sector and to the east of a cold front/dryline through much of the day. Strong deep-layer shear should combine with adequate instability to support updraft organization. All severe hazards appear possible with this convection, and any supercells will pose a threat for tornadoes in addition to large hail and damaging winds. Even with lingering uncertainty regarding the possible effect of early-day convection and some model differences in the placement of the upper trough and related surface features, enough confidence exists to include a 30% severe area for parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. This region appears to have the best chance for substantial destabilization Wednesday afternoon and discrete supercells. An isolated severe threat will probably persist into Wednesday evening/night across parts of the Midwest into the lower OH Valley and Southeast. Even though low-level moisture and instability should gradually decrease with eastward extent across these regions, both low-level and deep-layer shear will likely remain strong. This may support a continued severe threat through much of the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 NAM showing a nuclear cap for Tuesday over Kansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 The SPC has a pretty large hatched 30% risk area for Tuesday, stretching from DFW northward to Des Moines / Omaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 This must be one of the largest Enhanced risks I've ever seen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 This is worth noting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 hour ago, DanLarsen34 said: This is worth noting. You beat me to it by an hour! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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