April 4-6 Severe Outbreak

[nwohweather]

Looks to be a solid two day event from Jackson to Charleston

 

Quote

 ...SUMMARY...
   A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist across
   portions of the southern and southeastern U.S. on Tuesday,
   especially from the central Gulf Coast vicinity into
   central/southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. A swath of
   damaging wind gusts and several tornadoes are possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast over the Ozarks to Sabine
   Valley Tuesday morning, and will shift east across the Mid-South to
   the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Strong deep-layer
   southwesterly flow will overspread the south/southeastern U.S. ahead
   of the trough, with a 50+ kt 850 mb low-level jet oriented from
   southern MS into southern/central AL and GA/SC. Surface features
   will be somewhat nebulous, with a lack of strong cyclogenesis.
   However, low-level southerlies will maintain strong warm advection
   and mid/upper 60s dewpoints will spread north across the Deep South
   into GA and eastern NC. This will aid in moderate destabilization
   ahead of an eastward-advancing QLCS expected to be oriented roughly
   from western MS into central LA. Given abundant boundary-layer
   moisture, moderate instability, and strong shear, a broad area of
   severe potential will exist across much of the south/southeast U.S.
   through Tuesday evening. The greatest threat will exist across the
   Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) area from eastern LA/southern MS into
   southern AL, central/southern GA and southern SC.

   ...LA/MS...

   There is quite a bit of discrepancy regarding where the ongoing
   storm cluster or QLCS will be located Tuesday morning. Given this
   uncertainty, the western fringes of the outlook area may need
   adjusted in subsequent outlooks. Nevertheless, a roughly north-south
   oriented line of storms should track across southern MS and portions
   of central/eastern LA during the morning. Strong wind fields and a
   storm-motion vector orthogonal to the QLCS will support a
   damaging-wind threat, as well as a mesovortex tornado threat. Some
   guidance suggests that some airmass recovery could occur during the
   afternoon in the wake of morning convection, and another round of
   strong to severe thunderstorms could occur. This remains highly
   uncertain, but will need to be monitored.

   ...AL/GA/SC... 

   Midlevel flow will rapidly increase during the late morning/early
   afternoon as the 50+ kt low-level jet overspreads the region. The
   QLCS is expected to be maintained and shift east across the region
   during the afternoon into early evening. Similar to LA/MS during the
   morning, enlarged low-level hodographs will support mesovortex
   and/or embedded supercell tornadoes within the line, in addition to
   a swatch of damaging gusts. Less certain is how much, if any,
   discrete convection develops ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS.
   If discrete supercells develop, there is some potential for strong
   tornadoes given strong low-level shear amid rich boundary-layer
   moisture. Uncertainty regarding the development of discrete
   convection will preclude sig tor probs at this time, but may be
   needed in later outlooks across portions of at least AL/GA.

   ...Portions of Eastern Coastal FL...

   Stronger large-scale ascent will remain focused to the north of the
   area. Nevertheless, low 70s surface dewpoints and strong heating
   will support strong destabilization through peak heating. Effective
   shear magnitudes around 30-35 kt will support organized cells along
   the sea breeze boundary during the afternoon. Locally strong gusts
   and marginal hail will be possible with these storms. Low-level
   winds will be somewhat weak, but small, favorably curved hodographs
   are forecast. A tornado or two could occur with any storm located
   immediately along the sea breeze boundary where low-level shear will
   be maximized. 

 

[LithiaWx]

Sitting in NW Atlanta watching this one.  

[jpbart]

Schools in the Columbia area dismissing early tomorrow.  I had scheduled a test, oh well.

[nwohweather]

2 hours ago, jpbart said:

Schools in the Columbia area dismissing early tomorrow.  I had scheduled a test, oh well.

All that for a line eh?

[gtg947h]

Schools here are starting to dismiss early and/or cancel all after-school activity.  10% hatched tornado and 45% wind here, don't usually see that...

[Witness Protection Program]

8 simultaneous tornadoes at the moment in GA and SC.  The Macon, GA tornado looks about to hit the Macon bacon plant.

[nwohweather]

About to have a serious tornado event in the Lowcountry

[nwohweather]

[Calderon]

2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Nice CC drop in latest scan, it's still only "radar indicated" with a debris ball as it's curving right towards Allendale. 

[danny007]

Nasty TDS south of robins AFB

[Calderon]

Well, SC escalated quickly.

Quote

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ALLENDALE, SYCAMORE, AND SEIGLING...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS
OF ALLENDALE COUNTY...

At 357 PM EDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
over Allendale, moving northeast at 30 mph.

 

[olafminesaw]

The most classic a hook echo, supercell, cc combo I've seen east of the Appalachians. Holy cow that's not good

[Witness Protection Program]

Dang, almost a direct hit on Allendale, SC, looks to be crossing the southeast half of the small town.   Trailer homes, public housing, and a grocery store along with traditional neighborhood homes.

[gtg947h]

7 minutes ago, danny007 said:

Nasty TDS south of robins AFB

That looks like it went right over a friend's house

[Witness Protection Program]

 

[Iceresistance]

Tornado Emergency in South Carolina, potentially violent tornado on the ground right now.

 

EDIT: @Calderon got there first, but still a very dangerous Supercell

[eyewall]

Yeah that was a wedge for sure.

[Witness Protection Program]

The Mitch West vid from Allendale shows him blocked from going southeast at the southeast edge of town.  So hopefully the town itself was not hit hard.  But the high school is .9 miles further southeast of his location.   Perhaps we got lucky and the tornado went through that gap.

[SmokeEater]

The Mitch West vid from Allendale shows him blocked from going southeast at the southeast edge of town.  So hopefully the town itself was not hit hard.  But the high school is .9 miles further southeast of his location.   Perhaps we got lucky and the tornado went through that gap.

Not lucky, commercial buildings destroyed per ems at the least, they can't get into all areas yet.

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[NorthHillsWx]

Significant outbreak underway. Multiple PDS warnings and a tornado emergency already. Wow

[Witness Protection Program]

8 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Not lucky, commercial buildings destroyed per ems at the least, they can't get into all areas yet.

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Lucky that the path was over low density, mostly scattered industrial buildings, rather than those AND a high school or those AND plowing through the southeast half of town.  It's a relative term.

[Calderon]

34 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said:

 

Not exactly the smartest guy standing amongst downed power lines like that.  

[SmokeEater]

Lucky that the path was over low density, mostly scattered industrial buildings, rather than those AND a high school or those AND plowing through the southeast half of town.  It's a relative term.

Oh I know, got ya man, was just saying.

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[Witness Protection Program]

Another view of the Allendale tornado aproaching from R&R Motors, about 800' behind (to the northwest) of where the Mitch West damage vid was taken:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

The super cell that produced the above tornado is an absolute beast. Not everyday you see that structure in the low country. Terrifying

[CryHavoc]

Wild day for an ENH rating.

[SmokeEater]

Another view of the Allendale tornado aproaching from R&R Motors, about 800' behind (to the northwest) of where the Mitch West damage vid was taken:
 

There's a double wide mobile home completely gone across from that business with people missing. Specifically heard across from R&R on the scanner feed.

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[VOLtage]

Looks like another tornadic supercell is hitting the areas just affected by the last one in SC.

 

 

[Witness Protection Program]

1 minute ago, SmokeEater said:

There's a double wide mobile home completely gone across from that business with people missing. Specifically heard across from R&R on the scanner feed.

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Saw a report of trees down on a house on Jackson St, which starts basically just across the tracks from R&R.

[eyewall]

SC has had quite a year already. Not so much up here in NC of course.