Mountain West Discussion

[donsutherland1]

Denver recorded its 26th 95F day of the year today. That tied 2018 for 4th highest number on record. Denver's warming summers have led to an increase in the number of such days and a recent development of cases with 25 or more such days.

[Chinook]

I have moved. I will keep posting sometimes. I've seen quite a bit of rain and some reasonable lightning/thunder in Ohio since I've been back. Funny thing. When the dew point is 75 and you are at sea level, your nose doesn't dry out. I keep looking for the 00z NAM data to be available at 8:00PM, but it's not done by 8:00PM Eastern time!

since I left, Loveland got 1.26" of precipitation and Fort Collins got 2.98" of precipitation (I picked a couple of CoCoRAHS stations) 

my "secret" web sites in case you wanted to know

For winter snowpack

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/quicklinks/imap

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/gis/images/west_swepctnormal_update  dot png (change that dot)

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/co/snow/products/?cid=nrcseprd1432263

other info (not winter)

https://mesowest.utah.edu

https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/

https://aviationweather.gov/metar

 

This is my only view of the mountains now.

 

 

picture of aspen trees near the upper end of the Poudre River

[Chinook]

 

link:

https://krdo.com/news/2022/08/08/almost-30-people-were-rescued-in-denver-after-severe-flash-flooding/

 

[ValpoVike]

16 hours ago, Chinook said:

I have moved. I will keep posting sometimes. I've seen quite a bit of rain and some reasonable lightning/thunder in Ohio since I've been back. Funny thing. When the dew point is 75 and you are at sea level, your nose doesn't dry out. I keep looking for the 00z NAM data to be available at 8:00PM, but it's not done by 8:00PM Eastern time!

Well, bummer!  On the bright side - you may actually see snow in Ohio

[smokeybandit]

19 hours ago, Chinook said:

When the dew point is 75 and you are at sea level, your nose doesn't dry out.

Neither do your armpits or crotch

[smokeybandit]

It never ceases to amaze me how thunderstorms can dry up over top of my house, then reform a mile up the road.

[Chinook]

There has been 48-hour precipitation of 0.4" to 3.0" in the mountains of Boulder County, Larimer County, and Clear Creek County. Has there been a flash flood at Estes Park? I don't know.

[n1vek]

This has been a pretty decent pattern for the front range foothills and mountains. I know we have a long way until the end of "fire season" (in parenthesis because does it really ever end??) - but this has been a low drama summer so far with decent enough precip, periods of very high precipitable water anomalies, and "humidity".

 

Cheers to landing in mid-October with little drama and a snowstorm in the forecast. 

[Chinook]

forecast 48 hr precip from the 18z NAM, the NWS, and the 00z HRRR

 

 

 

[Chinook]

The 30-day and 60-day percent of normal precipitation. The Colorado River basin and New Mexico have had a lot of precipitation above normal since June. For Jul 16 to Aug 14 the map shows it has been at about 100% near Denver, but I think that may have varied a lot. Some areas from Greeley southward, to around DIA got missed by heavier precipitation. On the third map, US Drought monitor shows a change to the 1-to-2 drought categories more drought right at I-25 but a change to a 1-category less drought at some of the adjacent mountains, and much less drought in southern Colorado.

 

 

[smokeybandit]

fat PWATs predicted for my area today.  Flood watch again.

remains to be seen if the models whiff once again on widespread heavy rains.

[Chinook]

heavy rain heading downhill toward Mayjawintastawm's place. (even though I don't know what area that is, exactly)

Flash floods warnings near Glen Haven, Big Thompson Canyon (not sure how serious this is)

[smokeybandit]

Lots of red to my south and west. But will radar fill in over my house?

 

Man this is prepping me for winter storm tracking

[Chinook]

flash flood and reported 60mph wind gust in SE Denver

Quote

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Arapahoe County in northeastern Colorado...
  Northeastern Douglas County in northeastern Colorado...

* Until 645 PM MDT.

* At 346 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 
  1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 
  1 to 2 inches in 15 minutes. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 
  inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing 
  or expected to begin shortly

 

[smokeybandit]

There's a flash flood warning 5 miles to my west.  Yet I picked up a measly 0.17"

Just something about my microclimate I guess that these high precip events affect all areas around me but not me.

[smokeybandit]

 

[mayjawintastawm]

Got 2.06" here, the most in one day (or in 3 hours!) since I got the weather station, and 22% of our yearly precipitation to date. No flooding in our yard or basement

[mayjawintastawm]

On 8/10/2022 at 8:27 PM, Chinook said:

I have moved. I will keep posting sometimes. I've seen quite a bit of rain and some reasonable lightning/thunder in Ohio since I've been back. Funny thing. When the dew point is 75 and you are at sea level, your nose doesn't dry out. I keep looking for the 00z NAM data to be available at 8:00PM, but it's not done by 8:00PM Eastern time!

since I left, Loveland got 1.26" of precipitation and Fort Collins got 2.98" of precipitation (I picked a couple of CoCoRAHS stations) 

 

Dang. Who's going to be the authoritative poster in the subforum then?

Good luck and enjoy! Where in OH?

And yes, when I take trips east I enjoy my normal-feeling nose...

[mayjawintastawm]

3 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

There's a flash flood warning 5 miles to my west.  Yet I picked up a measly 0.17"

Just something about my microclimate I guess that these high precip events affect all areas around me but not me.

I do think it's mostly chance, and hearing about the high precipitation events makes people think everyone is getting in on the action. Your area tends to do fairly well in northerly-flow snowstorms from the subtle upslope- I work with a couple people from that area and they tend to come in late for work on those days in the late winter/spring. Most areas east of I-25 have been generally quite dry the last several months- hence the big W-E gradient on the drought monitor.

Related, I'd love to see a high-resolution map of average annual precipitation in eastern CO- I'd guess the nadir is about 50 miles east of Denver due to combined rain shadowing and less upslope.

[raindancewx]

The strong monsoon this year has really helped mitigate drought conditions in parts of the West this Summer. 

Most of my research implies a pretty widespread wet winter for 2022-23 nationally even though another La Nina winter is likely. The NE Pacific activity with the dead Atlantic, following a major volcanic eruption reminds me of the 1980s La Ninas, especially 1984-85 which had the big monsoon.

[Chinook]

Precip from Denver metro area. There was up to 2.29" in the southeast sector (Foxfield? Aurora?)

 

[smokeybandit]

NW Denver getting hammered this morning

[mayjawintastawm]

19 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Got 2.06" here, the most in one day (or in 3 hours!) since I got the weather station, and 22% of our yearly precipitation to date. No flooding in our yard or basement

Update: 24-hour total from 2 PM Mon-2 PM Tues 3.70". That's definitely the most IMBY since the Sep 2013 floods.

[Chinook]

Here's something kind of off topic. I checked CIPS analogs two years ago (September 2020)  to see if the forecast weather pattern resembled -September- snowstorms of the past. It did.

[donsutherland1]

August 19-20 could feature heavy monsoonal rains in Phoenix and Tucson. The potential exists for 1" or more daily rainfall at both cities on at least one day. Monsoon Scorecards for both cities are below.

[Chinook]

Here is the CoCoRAHS precipitation since July 1st at Centennial, south of Denver. Not too bad, considering how badly the Denver area needed rain.

[mayjawintastawm]

6 hours ago, Chinook said:

Here is the CoCoRAHS precipitation since July 1st at Centennial, south of Denver. Not too bad, considering how badly the Denver area needed rain.

 

I'm close enough to Centennial Airport (4 miles from the recording site I think) that when I miss a measurement I use theirs. This week the core of the biggest storm went between Buckley and Centennial, more or less over and just east of me. This summer has been weird though- other than a very general trend for less precip the further east you go, it's been pretty random, with big slugs of rain from a few storms scattered around the metro area. DIA has missed out on almost all the storms.

[donsutherland1]

Through 5:40 pm MST, the Friday-Saturday  monsoon rainfall has been disappointing in Phoenix and Tucson. Monsoon total rainfall for June 15-August 20 is: Phoenix: 1.34” (normal: 1.53”) and Tucson: 2.36” (normal: 3.66”).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 5:40 pm MST, the Friday-Saturday  monsoon rainfall has been disappointing in Phoenix and Tucson. Monsoon total rainfall for June 15-August 20 is: Phoenix: 1.34” (normal: 1.53”) and Tucson: 2.36” (normal: 3.66”).

OT, but possible Texas and neighbor flooding in August not directly related to the tropics, as forecast the next 4 days, is that precedented?  I started a thread in TX/LA.  August TC flooding has been worse, 2017 for example, but this would be baroclinic.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

OT, but possible Texas and neighbor flooding in August not directly related to the tropics, as forecast the next 4 days, is that precedented?  I started a thread in TX/LA.  August TC flooding has been worse, 2017 for example, but this would be baroclinic.

It might be record-setting if the numbers from the maps you posted verify. I will have to see if I can find other non-tropical cases of such excessive rainfall.