mayjawintastawm Posted May 11, 2022 Author Share Posted May 11, 2022 Yikes. Hope some combination of lighter winds, rain and miracles happens. Best wishes to you and family aggiegeog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 20 hours ago, ValpoVike said: Sorry to hear this man. I totally understand what you are going thru...been there. A threatening wildfire is huge stress, but a long duration threat is a whole different level of stress. I had Cameron Peak fire two years ago hang in the mountains to our west for 3 months before it roared down. Thankfully it all worked out and no personal damage, but the stress of potentially losing a cherished home is intense...almost PTSD level. Hang in there and know that there are a lot of very dedicated professionals doing all that they safely can. EDIT: Also the biggest thing your family can do (if you can still access the property) is to mitigate around the home. Take out any trees near the house, cut down any grass, and remove plants from around the home. Also, clear the immediate area around the home of anything that can burn (furniture, firewood, junk, etc). This really made a difference in our neighborhood, where fire blackened all around many homes but they didn't burn due to successful mitigation. We are in East Texas so too far to do anything but watch. Only one family decided to stay in our neighborhood up there. The fire is now within one creek drainage from our neighborhood. Sadly the neighborhood is fairly wooded so its going to make structure protection difficult. All structures are wood though many have metal roofs so that should help. With humidity levels and wind direction the fire will likely be in our drainage as early as today and good chance by Friday. Of greater concern of course is in the valleys where people live and work and not so much for our vacation homes. The fire will soon be in the towns of Chacon and Guadalapita. It will be pushing towards Angel Fire after that. Praying for the safety of residents and fire personnel, this has been a very hard month for them and there is no end in sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 10 hours ago, aggiegeog said: We are in East Texas so too far to do anything but watch. Only one family decided to stay in our neighborhood up there. The fire is now within one creek drainage from our neighborhood. Sadly the neighborhood is fairly wooded so its going to make structure protection difficult. All structures are wood though many have metal roofs so that should help. With humidity levels and wind direction the fire will likely be in our drainage as early as today and good chance by Friday. Of greater concern of course is in the valleys where people live and work and not so much for our vacation homes. The fire will soon be in the towns of Chacon and Guadalapita. It will be pushing towards Angel Fire after that. Praying for the safety of residents and fire personnel, this has been a very hard month for them and there is no Two of our Firefighters from our small volunteer dept are down there working it as members of the Alpine Hotshots. Lots of good professionals all around I am sure. Unfortunately I think this is going to be all too common in the coming months across this sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 The pictures are incredible and hard to believe. Seeing the smoke columns make 13,000 ft peaks looks tiny is hard to wrap around. And the fact that primary containment lines are being set up 20 miles from the current head of the fire is also. Those mountains are rough and steep with very dense but weak forest covering them. Thankfully not many homes in that area. This fire could easily burn into July or August or at least until it gets to the Taos valley. Imagining the area from Las Vegas to Toas burnt is tough as that is where I have spent my whole life visiting a few times a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 Might have to dust off the winter version of this thread for this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CO SciFan Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 We just finished planning a ton of stuff and I am not super excited about protecting it all from frost. Any odds for a late freeze for FOCO/Laporte at this point? Seems like the models are still divergent, especially on low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, CO SciFan said: We just finished planning a ton of stuff and I am not super excited about protecting it all from frost. Any odds for a late freeze for FOCO/Laporte at this point? Seems like the models are still divergent, especially on I think it is unlikely. Probably not an issue until around 6500 ft. But anything can happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Really hoping the models hold together/trend even wetter. I know beggars cant be choosers, but whenever we have a chance at meaningful precipitation in this awful pattern, I get greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 I saw the lunar eclipse quite nicely as it was just a bit above the trees when it started last night, and clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 Here goes... point forecast for me for Fri-Sat has 0.85" QPF with 0.9" snow. We shall see how it dwindles, or doesn't. Would be great. Of course I'm flying out Fri PM so would miss the snow, but at this point a few tenths of slush doesn't excite me. Have to bring the container veggies in. The eclipse was spectacular! Perhaps the darkest lunar eclipse I've seen. All my pictures are black though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 2 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: Here goes... point forecast for me for Fri-Sat has 0.85" QPF with 0.9" snow. We shall see how it dwindles, or doesn't. Would be great. Of course I'm flying out Fri PM so would miss the snow, but at this point a few tenths of slush doesn't excite me. Have to bring the container veggies in. The eclipse was spectacular! Perhaps the darkest lunar eclipse I've seen. All my pictures are black though... Maybe the snow won't freeze the plants too bad. Let's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 I agree on the eclipse, it was spectacular. I got a really great time lapse of it, but sadly the video file is much too large to post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Wtf is the GFS doing right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 18, 2022 Author Share Posted May 18, 2022 I dunno but the Fri-Sat forecast is getting even juicier. I think this time of year, handling convection throws the models off a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: I dunno but the Fri-Sat forecast is getting even juicier. I think this time of year, handling convection throws the models off a lot. Agreed. Until I see the pros put it in a point and click forecast, it's probably out to lunch. Either way, the NWS is interpreting the models to still drop a really nice storm on the front range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Last night my forecast was 2" This morning it's 6.9" Friday night plus 1.6" Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 I am watching Friday closely. I tend to get a bit excited when I see this kind of upslope scenario especially in May. Up here we have had some huge May storms with this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 18, 2022 Author Share Posted May 18, 2022 Yes, at this point it looks kind of like there will be a sharp elevation line below which will get an inch or so of slush and above which might get a ton of wet snow. Will it be 6000'? Will it be 7000'? We're on the edge of our seats! Tune in Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: Yes, at this point it looks kind of like there will be a sharp elevation line below which will get an inch or so of slush and above which might get a ton of wet snow. Will it be 6000'? Will it be 7000'? We're on the edge of our seats! Tune in Friday! I called 6500' in an earlier thread this week. Sticking with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 1 hour ago, ValpoVike said: I called 6500' in an earlier thread this week. Sticking with it Can I get about 200 off that estimate so I can join the fun at 6300? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 6 hours ago, ValpoVike said: I am watching Friday closely. I tend to get a bit excited when I see this kind of upslope scenario especially in May. Up here we have had some huge May storms with this set up. Hi watching with interest . What’s your elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hi watching with interest . What’s your elevation 7300' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Winter Storm Watch for the urban corridor/foothills signaling 4-10". I'd imagine it will be very elevation dependant. I want all of the moisture and none of the limb-breaking snow please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 18, 2022 Author Share Posted May 18, 2022 52 minutes ago, n1vek said: Winter Storm Watch for the urban corridor/foothills signaling 4-10". I'd imagine it will be very elevation dependant. I want all of the moisture and none of the limb-breaking snow please. Yes. My lilacs here at 5650' have broken from snow during full bloom several times, but not in 3 years (and the bloom is almost over for this year!) And I will be away this weekend and my kids won't measure, so just as soon have the whole thing be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 18, 2022 Author Share Posted May 18, 2022 Elevation list of frequent posters in this subforum (feel free to insert yours) from highest to lowest: guessing on order for many based on city. I don't think we have any in the "real" mountains over 9000 feet. ValpoVike: 7310' Smokeybandit: 6300' Mayjawintastawm: 5650' N1vek: Co Scifan: Chinook: Raindancewx (Albuquerque): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 55 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: Elevation list of frequent posters in this subforum (feel free to insert yours) from highest to lowest: guessing on order for many based on city. I don't think we have any in the "real" mountains over 9000 feet. ValpoVike: 7310' Smokeybandit: 6300' Mayjawintastawm: 5650' N1vek: 5500' Co Scifan: Chinook: Raindancewx (Albuquerque): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 2 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: Elevation list of frequent posters in this subforum (feel free to insert yours) from highest to lowest: guessing on order for many based on city. I don't think we have any in the "real" mountains over 9000 feet. ValpoVike: 7310' Smokeybandit: 6300' Mayjawintastawm: 5650' N1vek: Co Scifan: Chinook: Raindancewx (Albuquerque): 5110 ft. I hope my place gets the expected value of 1" -2" of snow or less. See NWS- Boulder briefing (PDF) under the heading "SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING." I kind of wish we had something like 70% chance of rain and 70 degrees, seriously. My place got thunder/lightning and 0.03" of rain on Yesterday (Tuesday). I think maybe up to 0.10" in Fort Collins. There were few other areas that got much. I saw a shower of snow hitting the top of Long's Peak, so that was cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Precipitation and snow amounts nearest to me in the last few years. Annual means January to December, not some weird combo water year months or anything like that. 2012-2013: incomplete winter data, but 39.5" snow for just April-May WINTER 2013-2014 : 50.8" WINTER 2014-2015 : 38.6" WINTER 2015-2016 74.4" WINTER 2016-2017 snow 38.3" with snow-water equivalent 5.33" 2017 annual precipitation (Fort Collins): 18.05" WINTER 2017-2018: 39.9" (Fort Collins) 2018 annual precipitation (Fort Collins): 15.06" WINTER 2018-2019 44" (Loveland) 2019 annual precipitation (Loveland): 14.23" WINTER 2019-2020: 79.9" (Loveland) 2020 annual precipitation (Loveland): 13.15" WINTER 2020-2021 snow 78.8" (Loveland) 2021 annual precipitation (Loveland) 14.37" JAN 2022 18.8" snow 1.50" precipitation FEB 2022 17.6" snow 1.24" precipitation MAR 2022 0.88" precipitation, 3.1" of snow APR 2022: 0.11" rain, no snow WINTER 2021-2022: 39.5" (Loveland) (or more?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 14 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: Elevation list of frequent posters in this subforum (feel free to insert yours) from highest to lowest: guessing on order for many based on city. I don't think we have any in the "real" mountains over 9000 feet. ValpoVike: 7310' Smokeybandit: 6300' Mayjawintastawm: 5650' N1vek: Co Scifan: Chinook: Raindancewx (Albuquerque): 5700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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