April 3-5 Severe Weather Event

[Powerball]

SPC Day 2 Outlook

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

 Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of northwest
   Texas and southwest Oklahoma Sunday evening. Strong wind gusts and
   large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of strong
   storms also are possible across west Texas and the southern Florida
   Peninsula.

   ...OK/TX...

   Westerly low-amplitude flow across the western half of the CONUS
   will amplify as a midlevel shortwave trough develops east/southeast
   to the Upper MS Valley vicinity. A second midlevel trough will pivot
   eastward across the southwestern states as well. A weak shortwave
   impulse will eject eastward across the southern Rockies into the
   southern Plains during the late afternoon/evening ahead of the
   western trough. This lead impulse will provide increasing ascent
   across western TX into OK by late afternoon/early evening. At the
   surface, a cold front is forecast to shift east/southeast across the
   central Plains and into northern OK during the afternoon/evening.
   This front will stall across northwest OK as a weak surface low is
   forecast to develop over eastern NM/western TX. A dryline also will
   exist from near the TX Panhandle/western OK border into southwest TX
   around 00z. 

   Increasing southerly low-level flow will result in modest moisture
   return to the east of the dryline/south of the cold front, with
   dewpoints generally reaching into the mid 50s F to possibly near 60
   F. While boundary-layer moisture will be modest, steep midlevel
   lapse rates and increasing midlevel moisture will support MLCAPE as
   high as 1500 J/kg. A weak capping inversion may preclude convective
   initiation until after 00z when a 35-45 kt low level jet is expected
   to increase and strong ascent arrives with the shortwave impulse.
   Once storms develop, vertically veering wind profiles with 35+ kt
   effective bulk shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs will
   support supercells capable of large hail. Steep low-level lapse
   rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layer air also will support
   strong, locally damaging gusts. 

   The severe threat should diminish/become more conditional with
   southward extent given weaker forcing and potentially stronger
   capping. However, should convection develop southward along the
   dryline across parts of west TX, sporadic strong gusts and hail
   could accompany this activity for a few hours during the late
   afternoon/early evening. 

SPC Day 3 Outlook:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

SPC AC 020734

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
   INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A broad area of severe thunderstorm potential will exist Monday
   across central/eastern Texas, and spread east into the Lower
   Mississippi Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind
   gusts, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible.

   ...Synopsis...

   A neutral to positively tilted upper trough will quickly eject east
   from the southwest U.S. to the Ozarks/east Texas on Monday. A large
   warm sector ahead of the trough will result in a broad area of
   severe potential from central/eastern TX into the Lower MS
   Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. 

   A surface low over northern IL will dissipate as it shifts east
   across the Midwest, leaving a nearly stationary cold front extending
   from the mid-MS Valley into central OK and western TX. As the
   western trough shifts east, a weak surface low is forecast to
   develop over western TX and track east in the vicinity of north TX
   or southern OK. Low-level southerly flow will transport mid 60s to
   low 70s surface dewpoints northward into central and eastern TX and
   low to mid 60s as far north as the Red River Valley. Steepening
   midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization.
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a
   dryline, and also in the warm advection regime in the vicinity of
   the quasi-stationary cold front across central/southern OK.
   Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing quickly
   with height, will support initial supercells across the warm sector
   from central into eastern TX. Large hail, damaging gusts and a few
   tornadoes appear possible with this activity through the
   afternoon/evening hours. As the low-level jet increases during the
   evening, upscale development into an eastward-advancing MCS is
   possible across the Sabine Valley vicinity.

   During the evening and overnight hours, the southwesterly low-level
   jet will increase and spread east across LA and the lower MS Valley
   into western AL. A warm front extending from the ArkLaTex vicinity
   to southern MS/AL during the evening will lift northward through the
   overnight hours to roughly central MS/AL, and will demarcate the
   northern extent of at least mid-60s surface dewpoints. Severe
   thunderstorms will be possible with any MCS/QLCS that develops
   across TX/LA and shifts eastward overnight, as well as with any
   semi-discrete convection that may develop. Forecast hodographs
   across the region will be quite large given the strength of
   low-level flow, and instability will be more than sufficient to
   support a risk for damaging gusts a few tornadoes.

   ..Leitman.. 04/02/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1123Z (6:23AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Powerball]

Monday's outlook has been shifted a bit further NW into far southern OK, and a broad 5% tornado risk area has been added (including DFW):

   SPC AC 030556

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN OK
   INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday
   across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi
   Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large
   hail and tornadoes will all be possible.

   ...OK/TX/ArkLaTex...

   A somewhat broad, and neutral to positive-tilt upper trough over the
   southwestern U.S. will develop eastward to the Ozarks/Sabine Valley
   vicinity by Tuesday morning. As this occurs, increasing midlevel
   southwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/eastern TX into
   the Lower MS Valley. Additionally, a south/southwesterly low-level
   jet will increase to around 40-50 kt during the evening and
   overnight across eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. The evolution
   of surface pattern appears somewhat messy and uncertain. A stalled
   front will reside from northwest TX into central OK and the Mid-MS
   Valley early in the period. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing
   along this boundary Monday morning across OK and far north TX. This
   activity should spread eastward or dissipate through the morning,
   but steep midlevel lapse rates could allow for some marginal hail. 

   Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward
   through the day, with 60s surface dewpoints as far north as the Red
   River/far southern OK possible by afternoon. Mid to upper 60s
   dewpoints may make it as far north as I-20. Coupled with steep
   midlevel lapse rates, moderate destabilization is expected despite
   somewhat modest diurnal heating. An EML/capping around 850-700 mb
   will likely limit thunderstorm activity for much of the day across
   TX. By early evening, a weak low is forecast to develop over
   northwest TX and a cold front will shift east across OK/north TX to
   the ArkLaTex overnight. Initial supercells are possible in the
   vicinity of the surface low and southward along the cold
   front/dryline composite. While storms maintain discrete mode, large
   hail and damaging gusts will be possible across north/central TX.
   However, it is unclear how long discrete cells may be maintained. An
   increasing low-level jet and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface
   boundary suggests upscale development into a QLCS is likely.
   Nevertheless, favorable low-level shear will exist and support
   mesovortex formation within any line that develops. Damaging gusts
   and a few tornadoes appear possible across parts of north/east TX
   into the ArkLaTex during the evening/nighttime hours. 

[Powerball]

Today's risk area has also been expanded a bit:

 

   SPC AC 030521

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
   INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of southwest
   Oklahoma into western Texas this afternoon and evening. Severe wind
   gusts and large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of
   strong storms are also possible across the southern Florida
   Peninsula.

   ...Synopsis...
   Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a prominent upper-level
   shortwave trough transversing the Great Lakes region, with a pair of
   weaker disturbances noted over the northern Rockies and approaching
   the southern CA coast. A weak surface low over the upper OH River
   Valley will migrate into the Northeast through the day while a lee
   cyclone over the northern High Plains will shift into the Plains by
   this evening. A lee trough/dryline will mix eastward into the Plains
   through the afternoon in tandem with the northern High Plains low.
   The combination of the falling surface pressure across the western
   Plains and a modest lee cyclone over the southern High Plains will
   strengthen southeasterly flow off the TX Gulf coast, spreading 50-55
   F dewpoints into west TX and southwestern OK by late afternoon. 

   ...Southwest Oklahoma into southwest Texas...
   Thunderstorm development appears likely in the vicinity of a weak
   surface low and along the surface trough/dryline, from southeast
   NM/west TX into western OK around peak heating. The observed
   Saturday evening Midland, TX RAOB reveals a dry boundary layer with
   around 7 C/km lapse rates aloft, which should be maintained through
   the day as weak broad scale ascent ahead of the CA wave steepens
   lapse rates. Initial storms are forecast to develop in a
   steep-lapse-rate environment, which may support a few dry
   microbursts across southwest TX. Loosely organized convection will
   move east by late afternoon/early evening into richer boundary-layer
   moisture as flow aloft strengthens. Consequently, the risk for large
   hail will accompany the more intense updrafts. Into the overnight
   hours, waning instability will diminish the severe potential. 

[canderson]

No one cares but my 6:50 pm flight from DFW Monday looks to be definitely canceled. @&:@

[Iceresistance]

The wind outside is just crazy right now

[Powerball]

Latest Day 1 outlook was shrunken a bit and shifted ever so slightly SW:

   SPC AC 031620

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OK AND
   WESTERN NORTH TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe wind gusts and hail are most likely across parts of
   southwest Oklahoma into west Texas, centered on 5 to 10 PM CDT. A
   couple of strong to marginally severe storms are also possible
   across southeast Florida.

   ...Southwest OK to west TX...
   As a triple-point cyclone becomes established near KCDS, isolated
   thunderstorms are expected to develop in the early evening just
   ahead of this low in southwest OK and to the south-southwest of a
   wavy dryline towards the Lower Pecos Valley of west TX. A deep
   well-mixed boundary layer is expected near the dryline as surface
   temperatures warm through the mid 80s to low 90s. Modified moisture
   return will be limited to upper 40s to mid 50s surface dew points,
   yielding a confined plume of modest buoyancy with 600-1200 J/kg
   MLCAPE amid steep lapse rates. Effective bulk shear increasing to
   around 40 kts near the triple point should foster a threat for a
   couple high-based supercells. Otherwise, more muted deep-layer shear
   along the dryline should tend to favor transient supercell/multicell
   structures. Isolated severe wind gusts appear to be the most
   probable hazard, but a few severe hail events are also possible. The
   severe threat will wane after dusk as MLCIN rapidly increases given
   the relatively dry boundary layer, despite elevated convection
   likely increasing tonight in vicinity of the surface frontal zone
   across OK. 

[Powerball]

As I sort of suspected would happen, there's now a broad enhanced risk area (including DFW) on the Day 2 outlook.

[Powerball]

35 minutes ago, Powerball said:

As I sort of suspected would happen, there's now a broad enhanced risk area (including DFW) on the Day 2 outlook.

 SPC AC 031730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH
   TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday
   across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi
   Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large
   hail and tornadoes will all be possible.

   ...Central and northern Texas/southern Oklahoma east-southeastward
   to Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
   An upper trough is forecast to advance out of Desert
   Southwest/southern Rockies into the central and southern Plains
   Monday, supporting weak surface low pressure development over North
   Texas.  As this occurs, a cold front is forecast to advance
   southward across the Panhandle and South Plains region, gradually
   overtaking a dryline across the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau area. 


   Ongoing/elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start
   of the period from western North Texas/Oklahoma east-northeastward
   across the Ozarks vicinity, in a zone of warm advection north of a
   warm front, expected to lie across northern Texas and into the lower
   Mississippi Valley.  As this boundary gradually shifts northward
   toward the Red River Valley as the low develops, heating/moistening
   of the warm sector will result in moderate destabilization, though
   much of the warm sector will remain capped into the afternoon. 

   Eventually, ascent near the dryline/front, and the low itself,
   should foster surface-based storm development -- perhaps as far west
   as the Concho Valley depending upon the location of the surface
   frontal advance.  Initial storms will likely become supercells --
   aided by favorably veering flow with height, and thus potential for
   all-hazards severe weather will evolve locally.

   With time, storms are expected to cluster together across the
   north-central Texas vicinity, with upscale growth likely during the
   evening as a strong southerly low-level jet develops.  As the jet
   increases/veers, and increasingly strong southwesterlies spread atop
   the area, a well-organized -- eventually bowing -- MCS may evolve. 
   CAM guidance suggests this evolution, which would then shift quickly
   east-southeastward across northeastern Texas through the evening and
   eventually parts of northern and central Louisiana overnight,
   reaching southwestern Mississippi late in the period.  As such,
   potential for a more widespread wind event is evident, supporting an
   upgrade to 30% wind probability/ENH categorical risk.  Along with
   the wind potential, large hail will be possible locally.  Some
   tornado risk is also evident -- both with QLCS-type circulations
   embedded in the linear convection, as well as with any
   isolated/supercell storms which may evolve in advance of the MCS.

   ..Goss.. 04/03/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1821Z (2:21PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Powerball]

I've looked at all the Hi-Res models, and they all show the entire Metroplex getting hit pretty good tomorrow evening. It's the first time since I moved here that I've seen such a consensus.

Not a clean setup (synoptically-speaking), but could still deliver.

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

I've looked at all the Hi-Res models, and they all show the entire Metroplex getting hit pretty good tomorrow evening. It's the first time since I moved here that I've seen such a consensus.

Not a clean setup (synoptically-speaking), but could still deliver.

Definitely not clean - think hail will be the biggest issue (other than wind gusts). 
 

For the metroplex it looks like a later start - after sunset and maybe even as late as 10 pm before things get going if I’m seeing models correctly)

[Powerball]

There was a MD for a possible watch in NW Texas and SW Oklahoma, but it has expired as storms have struggled to organize so far.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0391.html

[Powerball]

Today's slight risk area is gone with the latest outlook.

[Powerball]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 040102
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
802 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Night/

Bottom Line:
Rain and thunderstorm chances begin increasing across North and
Central Texas this evening/tonight with the potential for a few
strong storms capable of producing small hail and strong wind
gusts in our northwestern zones. The threat for strong and severe
thunderstorms will increase late Monday afternoon through Monday
night region-wide. All hazards including large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are possible Monday. Additionally,
heavy rainfall may result in localized urban and small stream
flooding despite ongoing drought conditions.

Meteorological Analysis:
In response to the modest southerly breeze in place this
afternoon, the poleward transport of Gulf moisture has served to
sharpen a diffuse western north-central Texas surface dryline,
extending from Quanah, TX southwestward towards Midland, TX. The
warm sector is further outlined by a quasi-stationary cold front,
associated with a northern stream shortwave trough advancing
across the Northern Plains. Surface analysis showed the cold front
draped from near Topeka in northeastern KS, to Cherokee in
northwestern OK, to Childress in the southern TX panhandle.
Regional radars indicate the initiation of convection in a fairly
narrow corridor just ahead of the dryline. In this region,
synoptic-scale ascent associated with the deepening upper trough
to our west is arriving while localized lift focused along the
dryline/cold front, low-level warm advection/surface heating, and
a strengthening low-level jet which is sending a deep surge of
moisture east of the dryline is supporting thunderstorm
development.

Latest high-resolution model guidance suggests that instability
is locally confined along and just ahead of the dryline with a
semi-discrete/discrete supercellular convective mode favored due
to increasing effective shear and the orientation of mid-level
flow in relation to the surface boundary. This activity is progged
to move eastward through the late evening, crossing our
northwestern/western zones overnight. As the convection becomes
further displaced from the boundary, the environment will become
less supportive of severe weather, however a few thunderstorms may
still be strong enough to carry a threat for small hail and gusty
downdraft winds. Even the most aggressive CAMs do not maintain
convection to the Interstate 35 corridor so it is likely that most
of North Texas will remain dry tonight. Low PoPs have been
maintained across parts of North Texas through daybreak Monday as
additional showers and sub-severe thunderstorms may develop in the
vicinity of residual outflow boundaries from decaying convection.

By Monday morning, the stalled front will have settled over
south-central Oklahoma and far western North Texas. Convective
activity through the morning hours should remain anchored near
this boundary though there is the potential for a few shallow warm
advection showers to develop across North and Central Texas as
low-level flow continues to transport moisture into the region
(dewpoints near 60 degrees approaching the Red River). Most areas
are likely to remain dry throughout much of the day however due to
the absence of forcing in the lower levels and the delayed
erosion of the EML/MLCIN. Though cloud cover will generally
inhibit diurnal heating, ongoing WAA and steepening mid-level
lapse rates ahead of the approaching upper trough will lead to
eventual destabilization as the nearly stationary front north of
the region begins to be pulled south/southeast into our western
zones.

Convective intensity and coverage is expected to increase Monday
evening and into the overnight hours as surface-based
thunderstorms erupt near the front/dryline. Vertical veering of
wind profiles with height should favor discrete supercells
initially, with the highest potential further south in
southwestern Central Texas along the dryline with large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible. Upscale
development into larger clusters and eventually an eastward-
advancing QLCS continues to be the most probable evolution as
storms will likely struggle to remain discrete amid the
increasing low-level jet and deep-layer flow parallel to portions
of the surface boundary. The CAMs have favored this evolution for
several runs even as mesoscale details have wavered. This
convective activity will progressively march across most of North
and Central Texas before midnight. While the tornado and large
hail threat will be higher with any storms that manage to remain
discrete, the environment is still likely to be supportive of all
severe weather hazards including areas of widespread damaging
winds and a few embedded QLCS tornadoes given the strong low level
shear in place. The general timing for the peak severe weather
threat across our forecast area will be 7 PM CDT Monday to 12 AM
CDT Tuesday, so it is very important for everyone to have multiple
methods of receiving warnings through the overnight hours. In
addition to the severe weather threat, locally high rain rates may
result in isolated minor flooding, especially in low-lying and
flood prone areas, despite the anticipated progressive pace of
convection.

[Witness Protection Program]

Hmm, not looking forward to tomorrow night's storms.

Very windy this evening in Ft. Worth.  Relatively low dew points felt great.  Wish DFW was 150 miles further west, dew points are usually low enough once you reach Abilene (and definitely by Sweetwater) that summers never really feel that hot out there.

[Iceresistance]

I had an unexpectedly heavier rainfall, my Rain Gauge shows 1.8 inches of rain 

[Powerball]

Day 1 outlook:

 

   SPC AC 040501

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL
   TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist today
   across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi
   Valley vicinity through tonight. Damaging wind gusts, large to very
   large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad upper-level trough, noted late Sunday night in water-vapor
   imagery over southern California, will continue to migrate east
   across the Southern Plains later today. Modest height falls aloft
   will support weak cyclogenesis across northwest to north TX by mid
   to late afternoon along a stalled front. Richer boundary-layer
   moisture via 60-65 F dewpoints (currently noted along the TX Gulf
   coast) will continue to advect northward through the day. Storms are
   expected to develop in the afternoon and grow upscale as they move
   into the lower MS River Valley overnight.  

   ...Central to Northwest TX...
   Thunderstorms are expected to develop around peak heating in the
   vicinity of the surface low and front. Elongated hodographs above 3
   km and off-boundary storm motions should support a few initially
   discrete cells. The degree of low-level cloud cover (implied by
   latest guidance) and lingering inhibition by late afternoon casts
   some uncertainty into storm coverage - especially south of the
   surface low along the front and into south TX - but the combination
   of 8-9 C/km lapse rates and strong flow aloft will support the
   potential for significant hail with more isolated supercells.
   Continued lift in the vicinity of the low will foster gradual
   upscale growth with a corresponding increase in damaging gusts as
   the low shifts into northeast TX. 

[Powerball]

SPC has a 30% hatched risk area in the latest Day 1 Outlook, which stops just short of a moderate risk.

[Powerball]

The SPC's discussion even mentions the potential of hurricane force winds with the MCS as it develops a cold pool

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

My house has been removed from the marginal risk.  Not surprised, positive tilt troughs rarely produce rain, let alone severe, in the Houston area.  0Z RAP sounding, just a smidge of a cap at DFW.  Long but fairly straight hodo.

[yoda]

10% tor added for N LA into W MS on 1630z OTLK 

[Sydney Claridge]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

The SPC's discussion even mentions the potential of hurricane force winds with the MCS as it develops a cold pool

This makes me wonder if we are looking at a possible derecho tonight.  That’s provided that the MCS can maintain its intensity with severe winds over a 250+ mile distance, of course.

[vwgrrc]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

The SPC's discussion even mentions the potential of hurricane force winds with the MCS as it develops a cold pool

That sounds like some powerline issues if it occurs in DFW...

[Powerball]

Seems a bit of clearing is trying to happen, which should help with surface destablization.

That said, seems some weak showers are trying to percolate to the west of the Metroplex. They're not really blowing up into t'storms or a complex, but could continue percolating just enough to hamper stronger heating as they move ENE.

[Powerball]

47 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

This makes me wonder if we are looking at a possible derecho tonight.  That’s provided that the MCS can maintain its intensity with severe winds over a 250+ mile distance, of course.

 

37 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

That sounds like some powerline issues if it occurs in DFW...

The setup seems to have some similarities with May 2, 2007.

[vwgrrc]

10 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

The setup seems to have some similarities with May 2, 2007.

Just finish reading (thanks for sharing!), I'm going to charge my power banks now!

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/highwind07

[Derek30]

Latest HRRR runs hinting at discrete supercell activity near/to the south of DFW late this evening into the overnight

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I think they are leaning SVR T-Storm watch, 80% next 2 hours.

[Powerball]

Mesoscale Discussion 0394
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of north-central/northwest TX and far
   southern OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 041916Z - 042145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds,
   and perhaps a tornado or two will increase this afternoon and
   evening. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...19Z surface observations show a nearly stationary front
   across parts of northwest TX into far south-central OK. The warm
   sector along and south/east of this boundary continues to
   destabilize this afternoon, with surface temperatures reaching into
   the 70s and low 80s, and dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to low
   60s. Steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km have overspread
   this region, and they are contributing to upwards of 1000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE as of 19Z. Additional diurnal heating and gradually cooling
   mid-level temperatures as an upper trough ejects over the southern
   Plains should allow MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg to develop across
   parts of northwest/north-central TX over the next few hours.

   Recent visible satellite imagery shows gradually deepening
   thunderstorms along and just behind the front in northwest TX, along
   with mid-level convection farther east over the open warm sector. As
   substantial convective inhibition continues to erode (see 18Z FWD
   sounding), and modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector
   this afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to form along
   the front. Deep-layer shear of 35-50 kt will likely support
   supercells with this initial activity. Isolated large hail should be
   the main threat with this convection through the early evening,
   although some damaging winds could occur as well. Given the presence
   of steep mid-level lapse rates, some very large (2+ inches) hail
   appears possible.

   With time this evening, thunderstorms will likely grow upscale into
   a bowing cluster across north-central TX and far south-central OK as
   weak low-level southerly flow gradually increases. Damaging winds
   will become increasingly probable as this mode transition occurs.
   The tornado threat through the rest of the afternoon should remain
   fairly marginal given modest low-level shear (see recent VWPs from
   KDYX/KFWS). Still, a threat for a tornado or two may gradually
   increase this evening, mainly after 01Z, as low-level shear slowly
   strengthens. Regardless, the overall severe threat along/south of
   the front this afternoon will likely warrant watch issuance in the
   next couple of hours.

   ..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31589970 32159991 33029988 33739956 34209908 34409842
               34429774 34349692 33839687 33339718 32139816 31499876
               31359924 31589970 

[Powerball]

2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I think they are leaning SVR T-Storm watch, 80% next 2 hours.

From what I've observed in the past, when the outline is purple, they're undecided on which type of watch they want to go with. 

Blue = Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and Red = Tornado Watch.

[Powerball]

@canderson

I don't know if your flight is still set for 6:30pm, but you might be able to make it out of there. Models have trended slower with the storms getting into DFW.