Bubbler86 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Should be fun later. I'm super impressed with that feature that formed over Colorado yesterday and is still well intact even right now over Ohio. That thing was basically what caused it to storm today instead of being sunny Yea, it is been showing up on models for a few days but was more focused in smaller areas until yesterday. Here is the NAM from Wed showing it south of us and a bit earlier. GFS at this time had it North of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: At what time is this on daylight savings time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: At what time is this on daylight savings time? Sorry, was cut off the snip. 3PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 whoa whoa whoa........What happened to the sunny and hot day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, sauss06 said: whoa whoa whoa........What happened to the sunny and hot day? It was always going to be in the low to mid 80's today so you are still on track :-). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, sauss06 said: whoa whoa whoa........What happened to the sunny and hot day? It disappeared, just to spite me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Sorry, was cut off the snip. 3PM. thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Being close to Baltimore, I am singing Yankee Doodle Dandy this AM while also watching an incredible STORY in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 32 minutes ago, Voyager said: It disappeared, just to spite me... AWESOME! 40's tomorrow get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Low of 55 here and some light showers currently moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Could see some legit storms move through central PA today. Anytime you have a remnant MCV approaching with sufficient sunshine and instability... oh boy watch out. We'll see if the capping near the surface helps to downplay the event, but as of now 5% risk of tornadoes from the SPC and a slight risk overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 58 minutes ago, paweather said: AWESOME! 40's tomorrow get ready. Bite your tongue... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 12Z Hrrr misses the middle and lower parts of the LSV. the area of concern seems to be quite compact regardless of where it goes. Bowling ball. It also shows some rain passing through the LSV tomorrow afternoon into early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z Hrrr misses the middle and lower parts of the LSV. the area of concern seems to be quite compact regardless of where it goes. Bowling ball. It also shows some rain passing through the LSV tomorrow afternoon into early evening. I was just looking at that. Looking at radar, it sure looks farther south than the HRRR has it. I guess we'll find out soon enough. Someone is going to get waffled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I was just looking at that. Looking at radar, it sure looks farther south than the HRRR has it. I guess we'll find out soon enough. Someone is going to get waffled. It has been waffling back and forth with each run. I posted a snip last night where it was concentrated from Williamsport and north east. So yea, all eyes should stay to the sky :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It has been waffling back and forth with each run. I posted a snip last night where it was concentrated from Williamsport and north east. So yea, all eyes should stay to the sky :-). Biggest concentration of storms moving towards Central PA right now are along the southern border counties. Also, a very intense cell just popped JUST south of me - I think the MJ Snowman might be getting a deluge about now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of central PA into MD. Damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes may accompany the strongest, longer lived storms. A WW issuance will be needed within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A remnant mid-level MCV (evident via water vapor imagery and 700-500 mb objective analysis fields) is currently located just west of the OH/PA border and continues to track eastward towards central PA, and is expected to support more robust convective initiation in the next few hours. Immediately ahead of the MCV center lies a highly sheared low-level environment, with recent PBZ VAD data showing relatively long, curved low-level hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 of associated 0-1km SRH. At the moment, buoyancy remains scant across portions of western into central PA. However, modest breaks in the clouds are contributing to modest surface heating, with mid 60s F surface temperatures already noted across central PA, with low 70s F along the PA/MD border. With surface dewpoints around 60F across several locales, RAP forecast soundings suggest temperatures need to warm into the lower 70s for appreciable buoyancy to develop given the presence of relatively poor (5.5-6.5 C/km) low and mid-level lapse rates. While buoyancy is expected to initially be marginal (i.e. at or below 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), localized deep-layer ascent and strong low-level shear associated with the approaching MCV should support at least a few strong to severe storms developing early this afternoon. Damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be the primary concerns, though a brief instance or two of marginally severe hail cannot be completely ruled out with the longer-lived, persistent rotating updrafts. A WW issuance will be needed within the next couple of hours to address the severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 MU Weather Center@MUweather The Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV), or small-scale rotational feature w/in a larger complex of showers & storms, is currently moving into western PA. Storms are already firing up rapidly ahead of & to the south of it. Timing of potential #SevereWeather is 1-5 p.m. for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 I don't see how this misses say Williamsport to York 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, canderson said: I don't see how this misses say Williamsport to York I don't either. I was just going to post that, looking at the current radar imagery, it is heading right for the entire region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, Voyager said: I don't either. I was just going to post that, looking at the current radar imagery, it is heading right for the entire region. The HRRR shows it in SW PA and Northern WV at this time as well but it lifts north into the afternoon. So I am hoping I get some action but not assured here yet. The radar does look more impressive than the HRRR presentation. 3K lifts is so far north, there is nothing in the LSV. So models are going to fail badly if this thing stays straight east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Tornado watch until 7pm UGHHHH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 12Z Rgem is down several degrees from its mid 90's predict tomorrow so more in line with other guidance now. Upper 80's to low 90's. Still too hot :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Biggest concentration of storms moving towards Central PA right now are along the southern border counties. Also, a very intense cell just popped JUST south of me - I think the MJ Snowman might be getting a deluge about now... Nope, believe it or not I got fringed, just a couple of minutes of scattered drops. I was actually outside working on the deck and could see the worst of it just to the north over mount joy. Looks like it split the gap between us, not easy to do ha. Another potent little cell heading our way from york. Wasn’t expecting all this early action, albeit quite isolated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Looks like hail imbedded storm heading for Maytown and Mount Joy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Looks like hail imbedded storm heading for Maytown and Mount Joy. . It's Raining Time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Looks like hail imbedded storm heading for Maytown and Mount Joy. . Core of the storm is entering town now. Right now just very heavy rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It's Raining Time My weather station's rain gauge is spinning faster than the numbers on gas pumps today... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Core of the storm is entering town now. Right now just very heavy rain... And again fringed here, just some more scattered drops. Literally meters from the orange on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: And again fringed here, just some more scattered drops. Literally meters from the orange on the radar. Lasted about 10 minutes, received .28" of rain. That is 1.99" to be exact since last Friday. I don't think I'm done for the day yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now