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Central PA Spring 2022


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9 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Should be fun later. I'm super impressed with that feature that formed over Colorado yesterday and is still well intact even right now over Ohio. That thing was basically what caused it to storm today instead of being sunny

Yea, it is been showing up on models for a few days but was more focused in smaller areas until yesterday.  Here is the NAM from Wed showing it south of us and a bit earlier. GFS at this time had it North of us. 

 

image.png.e0eb98fbb53fb4f929ee7aacc6fcc53f.png

 

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Could see some legit storms move through central PA today. Anytime you have a remnant MCV approaching with sufficient sunshine and instability... oh boy watch out. We'll see if the capping near the surface helps to downplay the event, but as of now 5% risk of tornadoes from the SPC and a slight risk overall.

day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

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32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z Hrrr misses the middle and lower parts of the LSV.  the area of concern seems to be quite compact regardless of where it goes.   Bowling ball.   It also shows some rain passing through the LSV tomorrow afternoon into early evening. 

I was just looking at that. Looking at radar, it sure looks farther south than the HRRR has it. I guess we'll find out soon enough. Someone is going to get waffled. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was just looking at that. Looking at radar, it sure looks farther south than the HRRR has it. I guess we'll find out soon enough. Someone is going to get waffled. 

It has been waffling back and forth with each run.  I posted a snip last night where it was concentrated from Williamsport and north east.  So yea, all eyes should stay to the sky :-). 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

It has been waffling back and forth with each run.  I posted a snip last night where it was concentrated from Williamsport and north east.  So yea, all eyes should stay to the sky :-). 

Biggest concentration of storms moving towards Central PA right now are along the southern border counties. 

Also, a very intense cell just popped JUST south of me - I think the MJ Snowman might be getting a deluge about now...

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mcd0838.gif

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of central
   PA into MD. Damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes may accompany
   the strongest, longer lived storms. A WW issuance will be needed
   within the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...A remnant mid-level MCV (evident via water vapor
   imagery and 700-500 mb objective analysis fields) is currently
   located just west of the OH/PA border and continues to track
   eastward towards central PA, and is expected to support more robust
   convective initiation in the next few hours. Immediately ahead of
   the MCV center lies a highly sheared low-level environment, with
   recent PBZ VAD data showing relatively long, curved low-level
   hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 of associated 0-1km SRH. At the
   moment, buoyancy remains scant across portions of western into
   central PA. However, modest breaks in the clouds are contributing to
   modest surface heating, with mid 60s F surface temperatures already
   noted across central PA, with low 70s F along the PA/MD border. With
   surface dewpoints around 60F across several locales, RAP forecast
   soundings suggest temperatures need to warm into the lower 70s for
   appreciable buoyancy to develop given the presence of relatively
   poor (5.5-6.5 C/km) low and mid-level lapse rates.

   While buoyancy is expected to initially be marginal (i.e. at or
   below 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), localized deep-layer ascent and strong
   low-level shear associated with the approaching MCV should support
   at least a few strong to severe storms developing early this
   afternoon. Damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be the
   primary concerns, though a brief instance or two of marginally
   severe hail cannot be completely ruled out with the longer-lived,
   persistent rotating updrafts. A WW issuance will be needed within
   the next couple of hours to address the severe threat.
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15 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't either. I was just going to post that, looking at the current radar imagery, it is heading right for the entire region.

The HRRR shows it in SW PA and Northern WV at this time as well but it lifts north into the afternoon.   So I am hoping I get some action but not assured here yet.  The radar does look more impressive than the HRRR presentation.   3K lifts is so far north, there is nothing in the LSV.  So models are going to fail badly if this thing stays straight east. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Biggest concentration of storms moving towards Central PA right now are along the southern border counties. 

Also, a very intense cell just popped JUST south of me - I think the MJ Snowman might be getting a deluge about now...

Nope, believe it or not I got fringed, just a couple of minutes of scattered drops. I was actually outside working on the deck and could see the worst of it just to the north over mount joy. Looks like it split the gap between us, not easy to do ha. Another potent little cell heading our way from york. Wasn’t expecting all this early action, albeit quite isolated. 

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