Voyager Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 4-6 in Rou'ville. Covering the plants will not make up for that. Going to be some damage in that depiction. If the plants are small enough, you could try my 5 gallon bucket trick. It would keep the snow from squashing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Just now, Voyager said: If the plants are small enough, you could try my 5 gallon bucket trick. It would keep the snow from squashing them. Yea, good idea. I will have to cover them tonight with the upper 20's so may need to change tactics for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 17, 2022 Author Share Posted April 17, 2022 Tomorrow's storm looks pretty exciting for parts of PA, perhaps even for some in our thread. I sincerely hope that all of you looking for snow will get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 17, 2022 Author Share Posted April 17, 2022 50 and partly sunny. Next post is 10,000. I'll save it for something good. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Did you guys see the recent HRRR? I know it's not the best model, but it's very NAM-esque: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Did you guys see the recent HRRR? I know it's not the best model, but it's very NAM-esque: Not sure Canderson's Dandy's survive 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not sure Canderson's Dandy's survive 10" I’ll chase to the big flat for this one. At 2100ft I’d expect a little accumulation up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’ll chase to the big flat for this one. At 2100ft I’d expect a little accumulation up there If we get sn+ at night with temps near 32, its game on anywhere regardless of elevation. Might see some WSW's soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 NAM. LSV wise, the different models are looking similar. Cumberland is looking the best right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 NWS is going 2-4 for my backyard. Never in my wildest dreams did I think I'd be freezing my ass off on Easter Sunday to go outside and have a smoke while tracking a winter storm. It almost feels like it should be New Years Day or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Voyager said: NWS is going 2-4 for my backyard. Never in my wildest dreams did I think I'd be freezing my ass off on Easter Sunday to go outside and have a smoke while tracking a winter storm. It almost feels like it should be New Years Day or something... A great lesson in not putting too much stock in teleconnections or oscillation predictions. They can be right but can also be so wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 High here today was 47. An impressive feat under full sun. 17 below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Oh Boy. LOL. Power Outages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Oh Boy. LOL. That’s my model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Looking at models, I think we all see flakes. Most of us just wet flakes south and east of 81.But in higher elevations could be some decent accumulation.Fun to watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, paweather said: That’s my model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: NAM. LSV wise, the different models are looking similar. Cumberland is looking the best right now. Perry county is looking good too… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 59 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Oh Boy. LOL. Power Outages? My goodness, which model is this? I just finished up our Easter entertaining with family and I am just catching up on our snow now… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: My goodness, which model is this? I just finished up our Easter entertaining with family and I am just catching up on our snow now… Gfs. Got cut off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Gfs. Got cut off. This 18z GFS would be impressive in the heart of Winter. If it comes anywhere close to verifying, this would be historic in the Harrisburg area and many parts of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Here is another look at the 18z GFS snow maps 10-1 & Kuchera. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is another look at the 18z GFS snow maps 10-1 & Kuchera. Wow! So what's your gut instinct on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think those of us near I-81 have a decent chance to see wet snow tomorrow afternoon & evening. Depending on rates, we could see a slushy coating to an inch or 2 on the grass, mulch & car tops if we are lucky. Hopefully the heavier precip is still around in the evening into overnight. Most models are showing that we have a chance. I would be happy just to see snow in the air for a few hours tomorrow evening. @mahantango#1 here we’re my thoughts this afternoon. If the 0z runs look anything like the 18z GFS, we might be looking at the possibility of more, especially north & west of Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Here are some of WGAL 8’s thoughts on the storm “A storm developing along the coastline of North Carolina arrives midday Monday. Temperatures should be cool enough at cloud level that some snow may mix in with the rain at times. It's looking more likely that areas along and northwest of I-81 could see some prolonged periods of wet snow with the rain. Minor grassy accumulations are possible, roughly a coating to 1 to 2 inches are forecast, mostly along the ridgetops and higher elevation areas.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 36 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 41/24 currently NNE wind 37 in the Catoctins above 1200' 40 at the M/D at the house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 53 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: This storm really reminds me of April 23-24 , 2012 when I was out near Somerset, PA and got 12-15" . Laurel Summit got 20"+ I believe It took a minute to jog my memory since I was thinking of another late April cold snap and snow but yes I remember this storm. In fact, the C-PA thread at the time is still back on about page 10 of the Upstate NY/PA forum ( I linked it below). Obs/pics were discussed roughly in the Page 18-20 range and I didn’t get too far into it but I’m sure there was plenty of lead up discussion. Really shows that the C-PA thread has been going for a long time (with several of the same personalities as well) haha. Anyways, I think that storm was a stronger one but I do believe this one might have better preceding cold. Certainly at 850mb.. this event looks to be starting tomorrow with temps at that level easily below 0 in central/eastern PA. We actually don’t need the dynamic top down cooling to initiate changeover as it will already be cold enough. It’s a matter of overcoming warmer boundary layer temps which is where the elevation factor/solar/timing plays in. Back with that 2012 storm, it went from zero accumulation in the valley to 6-10” at the top of the Allegheny Front here. I honestly don’t expect that kind of variability with this as I’m expecting something notable on the ground at my spot (at least a couple inches). This probably doesn’t have a problem mixing with snow in a lot of places into the Sus Valley but if there’s a clean transition period in some region of C-PA with heavy rates then I think all bets are off and decent accums happen in lower elevations as well. I still think you need to be above 1000ft and west of the river for seeing any accums. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 37 in Marysville this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: It took a minute to jog my memory since I was thinking of another late April cold snap and snow but yes I remember this storm. In fact, the C-PA thread at the time is still back on about page 10 of the Upstate NY/PA forum ( I linked it below). Obs/pics were discussed roughly in the Page 18-20 range and I didn’t get too far into it but I’m sure there was plenty of lead up discussion. Really shows that the C-PA thread has been going for a long time (with several of the same personalities as well) haha. Anyways, I think that storm was a stronger one but I do believe this one might have better preceding cold. Certainly at 850mb.. this event looks to be starting tomorrow with temps at that level easily below 0 in central/eastern PA. We actually don’t need the dynamic top down cooling to initiate changeover as it will already be cold enough. It’s a matter of overcoming warmer boundary layer temps which is where the elevation factor/solar/timing plays in. Back with that 2012 storm, it went from zero accumulation in the valley to 6-10” at the top of the Allegheny Front here. I honestly don’t expect that kind of variability with this as I’m expecting something notable on the ground at my spot (at least a couple inches). This probably doesn’t have a problem mixing with snow in a lot of places into the Sus Valley but if there’s a clean transition period in some region of C-PA with heavy rates then I think all bets are off and decent accums happen in lower elevations as well. I still think you need to be above 1000ft and west of the river for seeing any accums. The 2011-2012 time was such a wild period for weather. We had that record Halloween noreaster in October and then had some of the hottest months on record with barely any snow. I remember it being so hot in the 60s/70s and even a few 80s for almost 2 months straight. Then once the warmth went away late March/early April we had that April noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Do you guys have extensive foliage out on the trees down there? If you get this heavy snow, it could do some damage. We are in extremely early Spring mode up here still, so I don't see it being a problem. It would still be some heavy snow on everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Do you guys have extensive foliage out on the trees down there? If you get this heavy snow, it could do some damage. We are in extremely early Spring mode up here still, so I don't see it being a problem. It would still be some heavy snow on everything! Some trees have blossomed out along with stuff like daffodils and Magnolia blossoms but at least in this area there is basically zero leaf out of anything to this point thanks to what has been quite the bi-polar month that has been chillier more often than warm so far. And that’s down here at this elevation in the valley (and also in town), so fortunately if there are significant amounts that aspect shouldn’t be a factor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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