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Central PA Spring 2022

Itstrainingtime
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Mount Joy Snowman
Mount Joy Snowman

Well boys, welcome baby Lucy to the world, born on April Fools’ Day and sure to be a future meteorologist extraordinaire. Life is good. So blessed.    Edit: won’t allow me to attach pic due to

Cashtown_Coop
Cashtown_Coop

Like this post for anyone rooting for a year without a summer.   

MAG5035
MAG5035

I was about to say that the best part of this is that it’s probably the best synoptic rates I have seen the entire season and it’s happening on April 18th. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Voyager said:

This pic was taken a short time ago (not by me) up in Barnesville which is but a couple miles from my house...

278794078_5417330524946492_1193107498886489824_n.jpg

Untitled.jpg

MU was all over this a couple of hours ago:

A few heavier snow showers are moving south-southeast through central PA. Most of the activity will fall apart as it gets out of the higher terrain, but there may be a light coating in spots (on non-paved surfaces) in eastern Perry & northern Dauphin Co.’s w/flakes farther south.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Had some flurries this morning. This makes it 2/2 for snowing on Sunday this month and the last 3 Sundays in a row..

I’ve been fairly busy and not able to post much but have been keeping an eye on tomorrows system. It did catch my attention that models across the board have been pretty robust on accums the last few days in the central counties and it looks like CTP is finally starting to oblige to that reality with ramping up their grids. It’s probably not enough either. Laurel’s and north central counties are likely looking at some kind of a headline event. 

This is obviously a highly diurnal and elevational situation, seems like arrival of significant precip is slated for the late afternoon and going into a good bit of the evening. It looks like a pretty decent slug of moisture so that coupled with the developing coastal low will probably promote a quick changeover to snow in the central counties and remain so if rates remain steady and moderate to heavy. If it’s heavy it will eventually accumulate on most things despite all the ad nauseam springtime disclaimers, especially getting towards the evening (after 5 or so). 

Not sure what to expect here, though the top of Wopsy 4 miles up the road from me at 2400’ (and similar elevations in the Laurels could get a lot of what the new 3k NAM is throwing down. Down here? It very well could end up an advisory type event with a quick decisive changeover and heavy rates. Certainly expect to see some kind of accumulation at this point being at 1300’.  I will say the overwhelming factor in favor of me seeing 8-10” is the fact I rolled the dice and I pulled the mower out of the storage garage and put the snowblower away yesterday. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Actually, please let us know your thoughts on Susquehanna Valley’s snow chances if you get the chance.

I think it’s possible it could mix with snow some in the metro areas, or certainly at least the Harrisburg area… not sure about all the way in York/Lancaster though I certainly wouldn’t say the chance is 0%.  I do expect it’ll be mainly rain SE of I-81 except for some of the ridges which may have some snow and maybe some minor accumulations. The low track’s pretty good if not a tad inside but it’s a matter of getting cold enough air to the low levels in eastern PA and this is a more dynamically driven setup with getting it cold enough. So I don’t think it’s quite there to get much into the Sus Valley.

Between here and the Susquehanna River in the ridge and valley region will likely present the greatest variability in potential snow accums from an elevational standpoint with the deeper valleys. This is probably a >1000’ elevation type deal to see accums and like a >1500-1600’ to see advisory+. A total collapse of the column and heavy rates could mitigate the elevational variability but that seems mostly likely to happen deep in the central and esp northern part of the state. 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

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Posted

Here are some comments from CTP: 

A chilly Easter Sunday will kick off a cooler-than-normal first
half of the upcoming work week. Accumulating snow for thehigher elevations of Pennsylvania and a mix of rain and wet snow
for the Lower Susquehanna Valley and points east will spell a raw stretch Monday into Tuesday morning.

 

 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

Here is more from CTP: 

Transitioned to a freeze Warning with all numerical guidance for
our zones that are in the growing season showing mainly sub-freezing temps for several hours early Monday.

A frost is guaranteed with a freeze likely.

High clouds approach before daybreak Monday as the stage is set for a raw wintry system to affect the Commonwealth Monday into
Tuesday. With cold air firmly in place, an approaching low
pressure system will provide plenty of moisture and lift to produce widespread precipitation by Monday afternoon. Rain and
wet snow are expected to overspread the area from southwest to northeast beginning around daybreak Monday and continuing
through Monday evening.

Temperature profiles in the Laurel Highlands and northwest mountains will support snow as the primary precipitation type,
though afternoon temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s
indicate the potential for rain to mix in. This will truly be an elevation storm with potential for a few inches on the highest
ridges and only a coating to an inch in the valleys. Snowfall accumulation could be as high as 3" on some of the ridges in the
Laurels.

Farther south and east, precipitation will fall as a mix of rain and wet snow with little to no snow accumulation expected in
the valley floors. Temperatures in the 40s and a brisk southeasterly wind gusting 20 to 25 mph will make for a raw
April day.

By Monday evening into Monday night, a coastal low will intensify and take over as the primary low. Model trends are
toward the west with a potential swath of highly elevation dependent heavy snow impacting the eastern half of the state,
with the greatest threat for over 4 inches of snow occurring across the Mountains NE of KIPT, where elevation, latitude and a
later/more nocturnal winter-like event will occur.
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paweather

paweather

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is more from CTP: 

Transitioned to a freeze Warning with all numerical guidance for
our zones that are in the growing season showing mainly sub-freezing temps for several hours early Monday.

A frost is guaranteed with a freeze likely.

High clouds approach before daybreak Monday as the stage is set for a raw wintry system to affect the Commonwealth Monday into
Tuesday. With cold air firmly in place, an approaching low
pressure system will provide plenty of moisture and lift to produce widespread precipitation by Monday afternoon. Rain and
wet snow are expected to overspread the area from southwest to northeast beginning around daybreak Monday and continuing
through Monday evening.

Temperature profiles in the Laurel Highlands and northwest mountains will support snow as the primary precipitation type,
though afternoon temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s
indicate the potential for rain to mix in. This will truly be an elevation storm with potential for a few inches on the highest
ridges and only a coating to an inch in the valleys. Snowfall accumulation could be as high as 3" on some of the ridges in the
Laurels.

Farther south and east, precipitation will fall as a mix of rain and wet snow with little to no snow accumulation expected in
the valley floors. Temperatures in the 40s and a brisk southeasterly wind gusting 20 to 25 mph will make for a raw
April day.

By Monday evening into Monday night, a coastal low will intensify and take over as the primary low. Model trends are
toward the west with a potential swath of highly elevation dependent heavy snow impacting the eastern half of the state,
with the greatest threat for over 4 inches of snow occurring across the Mountains NE of KIPT, where elevation, latitude and a
later/more nocturnal winter-like event will occur.

@Blizzard93 what is the prediction for us.

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, paweather said:

@Blizzard93 what is the prediction for us.

I think those of us near I-81 have a decent chance to see wet snow tomorrow afternoon & evening. Depending on rates, we could see a slushy coating to an inch or 2 on the grass, mulch & car tops if we are lucky. Hopefully the heavier precip is still around in the evening into overnight. Most models are showing that we have a chance.

I would be happy just to see snow in the air for a few hours tomorrow evening.

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