Central PA Spring 2022

[Itstrainingtime]

Well, my numbers above could be off, because some of those "runs" likely happened during the same year, which would skew the numbers a bit. I think. 

[TimB]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Well, my numbers above could be off, because some of those "runs" likely happened during the same year, which would skew the numbers a bit. I think. 

I could have worded mine better too. I didn’t include the shorter streaks in with the longer ones, so you’d really have to add stuff together since an 11 day streak is by definition a 5+ day streak, etc.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

...and there he is, the zen of data collection! Well done Tim!

So - MDT has a "5 day heat wave" approximately every 3 years, and a "7 day heat wave" approximately every 7-8 years.

Which do we like better? 

Are you asking all of us or just the warminista's? 

[TimB]

So a 5+ day streak is occurring about once a year and a 7+ day streak is happening about once every 3 years.

To your point, August 2021 had a 5 day streak and a 6 day streak. July 2020 had separate 5, 6, and 7 day streaks all contained in the same month. And so on…

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

So a 5+ day streak is occurring about once a year and a 7+ day streak is happening about once every 3 years.

To your point, August 2021 had a 5 day streak and a 6 day streak. July 2020 had separate 5, 6, and 7 day streaks all contained in the same month. And so on…

And a 5 day streak of plus 90 in August is not exactly something that USATODAY covers front page. 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

And a 5 day streak of plus 90 in August is not exactly something that USATODAY covers front page. 

I would describe both July 2020 and August 2021 as “hell on earth”, though neither one was shattering daily records.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, TimB said:

I would describe both July 2020 and August 2021 as “hell on earth”, though neither one was shattering daily records.

I think they should be considered heat waves since they are 5 or more but if they were all upper 90's and 100's it is a lot more noteworthy than low 90's.  I did not check the records just again pointing out the problem is using the set number. 

[Bubbler86]

MU 2022 end of May and June first Heat Wave

 

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think they should be considered heat waves since they are 5 or more but if they were all upper 90's and 100's it is a lot more noteworthy than low 90's.  I did not check the records just again pointing out the problem is using the set number. 

I’d say low 90s is noteworthy when it’s a double digit + departure, like now. But what’s the average high at MDT in July? 87 or so? Is 5 days of a +3 departure really noteworthy?

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, TimB said:

I’d say low 90s is noteworthy when it’s a double digit + departure, like now. But what’s the average high at MDT in July? 87 or so? Is 5 days of a +3 departure really noteworthy?

That is one of the main points of the discussion:

1) Adjust from 90 to a set amount above normal (7 degrees?  5 Degrees?)

-OR-

2) Adjust from actual temp to heat indices but still use the normal as the baseline.  So heat index of +7 AN for 5 or more days.    It got to 89 here yesterday but the DP's were in the low 60's so in the shade it was just a slightly warm day. 

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

That is one of the main points of the discussion:

1) Adjust from 90 to a set amount above normal (7 degrees?  5 Degrees)

-OR-

2) Adjust from actual temp to heat indices but still use the normal as the baseline.  So heat index of +7 AN for 5 or more days.  

With option 1, can a date range be put on it? If not, then a 5 day stretch of high temperatures in the upper 40s in January would qualify.

[Itstrainingtime]

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Are you asking all of us or just the warminista's? 

Everyone. What does the community consider a true heat wave? 

[Itstrainingtime]

Great discussion. I love reading other's perspectives. Lots of factors to consider. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, TimB said:

With option 1, can a date range be put on it? If not, then a 5 day stretch of high temperatures in the upper 40s in January would qualify.

I thought of that so was thinking maybe it has to be a day that the NWS records Cooling Degree days.  MDT got to 79 in Feb '18 but apparently has a limit on when they record CDD as it still says 0.  

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Great discussion. I love reading other's perspectives. Lots of factors to consider. 

Hopefully you will pass this all on to MU for future consideration?  :-) 

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I thought of that so was thinking maybe it has to be a day that the NWS records Cooling Degree days.  MDT got to 79 in Feb '18 but apparently has a limit on when they record CDD as it still says 0.  

CDD is mean temp over 65. Looks like that day had a high of 79 and a low of 43, so a mean of 61 and therefore 4 HDD.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, TimB said:

CDD is mean temp over 65. Looks like that day had a high of 79 and a low of 43, so a mean of 61 and therefore 4 HDD.

Interesting, I did not know the specifics.  But that is one possible way to limit it vs. trying to say hitting 70 five days in a row in Feb is a heat wave.  I believe the whole premise of the phrase use is to warn people in specific situations about danger.  People who work outside, sports players, people (especially very young and elderly) in non air conditioned locales.   So, agree that hitting 70 five days in a row in January is not a heat wave. 

 

Maybe you can also say 90 is the min but it also has to be 7 AN so 90 in August does not work. 

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Interesting, I did not know the specifics.  But that is one possible way to limit it vs. trying to say hitting 70 five days in a row in Feb is a heat wave.  I believe the whole premise of the phrase use is to warn people in specific situations about danger.  People who work outside, sports players, people (especially very young and elderly) in non air conditioned locales.   So, agree that hitting 70 five days in a row in January is not a heat wave. 

PIT had a day during that Feb 2018 stretch that was 78/59, so we got some CDD’s there. Hitting 70 five days in a row in January would be incredibly anomalous in its own right. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

PIT had a day during that Feb 2018 stretch that was 78/59, so we got some CDD’s there. Hitting 70 five days in a row in January would be incredibly anomalous in its own right. 

It would be anomalous but not dangerous in most cases except to our psyche.  Would be lots of kicking of footballs going on. 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Hopefully you will pass this all on to MU for future consideration?  :-) 

Newman needs to do that - he's in his department.  

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Newman needs to do that - he's in his department.  

If Newman does it, the note paper would have thunder bolts and tornadoes at the top border.    "From the Desk of Newman"

[Bubbler86]

What does it say about the upcoming summer when on day one we are better defining what constitutes a heat wave? 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

What does it say about the upcoming summer when on day one we are better defining what constitutes a heat wave? 

A real no doubter of a heat wave is on its way so we stop quibbling about it, I’m sure.

[sauss06]

i'd say 5 days of 90+ is a heat wave. i like those a s much as 5 days in a row of 10 or less 

[Superstorm]

Everyone. What does the community consider a true heat wave? 

To me, heat waves should be regionalized like snowfall totals:

New England, 3 days of 90+
Mid Atlantic, 5 days of 90+
Etc


.

[Itstrainingtime]

Rogue little cell just popped right over MDT. 

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Rogue little cell just popped right over MDT. 

It heard Canderson says he would be high and dry this week and it is trying to find him. 

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It heard Canderson says he would be high and dry this week and it is trying to find him. 

Nope, mostly sunny here still. Also it's 94. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Nope, mostly sunny here still. Also it's 94. 

That was the "trying" comment.  I figured you would duck them :-) 

[TheDreamTraveler]

Since you're all bringing up temps and averages I completely forgot they updated the average temps once 2020 passed. I was confused seeing the average high for Enola being 88 degrees in July now instead of 86 degrees like it was before. I was kinda shocked that the average went up by 2 degrees just due to it adding in the 10 year data from 2010-2020 and getting rid of the older data it had before. I think it uses a 30 year mean average and then updates at the turn of the decade