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Central PA Spring 2022


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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP has just a 40% chance of showers with Mostly Sunny forecast tomorrow for me.

 

Saturday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. West wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

 

 

Models have it raining on and off all day.  And not mostly sunny. Take the NAM's cloud fraction/percentage.  Quite high.  If it does not improve this afternoon, my festivities are being moved :-). 

image.thumb.png.e1914af377f2d7b9ca357e88945c6ec4.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Never good to see… do you think they will extend it into the LSV later on?

Given SPC's thoughts on where severe is most likely today, I wouldn't see why not. But I am far, far removed from being an expert on severe. And I'll never actively root for it. It can stay far away as far as I'm concerned. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Given SPC's thoughts on where severe is most likely today, I wouldn't see why not. But I am far, far removed from being an expert on severe. And I'll never actively root for it. It can stay far away as far as I'm concerned. 

Hopefully the early cloud cover & showers will reduce the chance of severe storms with less “fuel” to ignite anything strong.

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Models have it raining on and off all day.  And not mostly sunny. Take the NAM's cloud fraction/percentage.  Quite high.  If it does not improve this afternoon, festivities are being moved :-). 

image.thumb.png.e1914af377f2d7b9ca357e88945c6ec4.png

 

 

I learned something here. I’ve never seen a Cloud Fraction map before now.

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CTP’s discussion does indicate a less optimistic tone for the first half of tomorrow.

“The low level jet and plume of deepest moisture will shift east
of the region later this evening. However, scattered showers
and thundershowers appear likely into the first half of Saturday
afternoon with passage of upper low and weak sfc trough. Meager
CAPE and weak shear profiles indicate little to no threat of
severe weather.”
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20 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If that depiction played out, I'd be in line for a lot of rain tomorrow at work and at home while @Mount Joy Snowmansits right between those 2 bands in Lanco. LOL

So par for the course is what you're saying ha.  But in all seriousness, it looks like almost everyone should be in for a nice line of heavy showers around lunchtime today.

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59 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Areal Flood Watch in effect for a few counties. 1 to 2 inches of rain with some training thunderstorms with potentially an excess of 3 inches in some storms.

Just saw that. Here's the text from the NWS.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following
  counties, Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster,
  Lebanon, Schuylkill and York.

* WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Heavy showers and possible thunderstorms could train
    northeast across the same locations leading to between 1 and
    2 inches of rain in just 30 to 60 minutes. A few locations
    could see rainfall totals in excess of 3 inches this
    afternoon and evening.
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12 hours ago, Voyager said:

Hoping we don't get any hail tomorrow. If all goes well, the wife will be buying and taking possession of a new Ford Bronco Sport. She doesn't need hail damage on day one of ownership...

I have to get on the Voyager game plan.  I have not purchased a car in 8-9 years.  Living large in Tamaqua.   Maybe Pillow will see me going by everyday soon. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have to get on the Voyager game plan.  I have not purchased a car in 8-9 years.  Living large in Tamaqua.   Maybe Pillow will see me going by everyday soon. 

Too funny. I had my Liberty for ten years, the wife has hers seven. So it's time.

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@Blizzard of 93, another cloud cover map.  Surprised you have not seen these.  This is for 2PM tomorrow on the 12Z GFS.  These are percentages vs. a satellite pic but in some ways it can be looked at in a similar manner.   Anything in the blues suggests it is probably going to be fairly cloudy. 

 

 

 

image.thumb.png.b90367177311263e8bf2d1607e79d684.png

 

 

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