Bubbler86 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: CTP has just a 40% chance of showers with Mostly Sunny forecast tomorrow for me. Saturday A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. West wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Models have it raining on and off all day. And not mostly sunny. Take the NAM's cloud fraction/percentage. Quite high. If it does not improve this afternoon, my festivities are being moved :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Areal Flood Watch in effect for a few counties. 1 to 2 inches of rain with some training thunderstorms with potentially an excess of 3 inches in some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Never good to see… do you think they will extend it into the LSV later on? Given SPC's thoughts on where severe is most likely today, I wouldn't see why not. But I am far, far removed from being an expert on severe. And I'll never actively root for it. It can stay far away as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Areal Flood Watch in effect for a few counties. 1 to 2 inches of rain with some training thunderstorms with potentially an excess of 3 inches in some storms. It's that time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Given SPC's thoughts on where severe is most likely today, I wouldn't see why not. But I am far, far removed from being an expert on severe. And I'll never actively root for it. It can stay far away as far as I'm concerned. Hopefully the early cloud cover & showers will reduce the chance of severe storms with less “fuel” to ignite anything strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Models have it raining on and off all day. And not mostly sunny. Take the NAM's cloud fraction/percentage. Quite high. If it does not improve this afternoon, festivities are being moved :-). I learned something here. I’ve never seen a Cloud Fraction map before now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 CTP’s discussion does indicate a less optimistic tone for the first half of tomorrow. “The low level jet and plume of deepest moisture will shift east of the region later this evening. However, scattered showers and thundershowers appear likely into the first half of Saturday afternoon with passage of upper low and weak sfc trough. Meager CAPE and weak shear profiles indicate little to no threat of severe weather.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 67 cloudy looks like a rainy day is in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 20 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: If that depiction played out, I'd be in line for a lot of rain tomorrow at work and at home while @Mount Joy Snowmansits right between those 2 bands in Lanco. LOL So par for the course is what you're saying ha. But in all seriousness, it looks like almost everyone should be in for a nice line of heavy showers around lunchtime today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Sorry about the Mavs @Bubbler86Good run for them! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 59 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Areal Flood Watch in effect for a few counties. 1 to 2 inches of rain with some training thunderstorms with potentially an excess of 3 inches in some storms. Just saw that. Here's the text from the NWS. ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following counties, Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill and York. * WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Heavy showers and possible thunderstorms could train northeast across the same locations leading to between 1 and 2 inches of rain in just 30 to 60 minutes. A few locations could see rainfall totals in excess of 3 inches this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 The HRRR has two distinct lines of .5 to 1.5" of rain going through the LSV (each line). One mid day and one just after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 I believe i'm not going to a baseball tonight. Sunday and Monday look awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 MU: The strong-to-severe t-storms across west-central VA will move through northern MD & the Lower Susquehanna Valley btw. 11 a.m. & 5 p.m. Main threats will be flooding downpours & locally damaging winds, w/up to 2” of rain possible in just 30-60 mins. in the hardest-hit locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 12Z HRRR Round one then round two 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z HRRR Round one then round two I get round one with nothing for 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: I get round one with nothing for 2 You get plenty from round two. These are just point in time snips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: You get plenty from round two. These are just point in time snips. Gotcha, haven't looked at it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 12 hours ago, Voyager said: Hoping we don't get any hail tomorrow. If all goes well, the wife will be buying and taking possession of a new Ford Bronco Sport. She doesn't need hail damage on day one of ownership... I have to get on the Voyager game plan. I have not purchased a car in 8-9 years. Living large in Tamaqua. Maybe Pillow will see me going by everyday soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I have to get on the Voyager game plan. I have not purchased a car in 8-9 years. Living large in Tamaqua. Maybe Pillow will see me going by everyday soon. Too funny. I had my Liberty for ten years, the wife has hers seven. So it's time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 @Bubbler86 - that line reach you yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Bubbler86 - that line reach you yet? Not yet, I am close to the Adams county border so a bit to go still. I am glad the calls for not much rain today were off. I need it. Edit-Just started raining 4 min later. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not yet, I am close to the Adams county border so a bit to go still. I am glad the calls for not much rain today were off. I need it. Edit-Just started raining 4 min later. LOL I was thinking it was on your doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I was thinking it was on your doorstep. Just this line will be enough to satisfy me but appears more to come tonight into tomorrow. Its really dropping high totals just south of me in MD and WJ. If that rotates a bit north, the FFW may be realized for the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I have to get on the Voyager game plan. I have not purchased a car in 8-9 years. Living large in Tamaqua. Maybe Pillow will see me going by everyday soon. You really want to be in warminsta territory? Voyager will hunt you down everytime the thermometer drops below 75. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: You really want to be in warminsta territory? Voyager will hunt you down everytime the thermometer drops below 100 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I was thinking it was on your doorstep. We are getting the works. Not going to post totals but suffice to say, it is very wet under the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 @Blizzard of 93, another cloud cover map. Surprised you have not seen these. This is for 2PM tomorrow on the 12Z GFS. These are percentages vs. a satellite pic but in some ways it can be looked at in a similar manner. Anything in the blues suggests it is probably going to be fairly cloudy. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We are getting the works. Not going to post totals but suffice to say, it is very wet under the trees. This is important information for my Coleus - I have quite a few under my dogwood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: This is important information for my Coleus - I have quite a few under my dogwood. It is still pouring and flashing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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