Central PA Spring 2022

[Bubbler86]

  On 4/15/2022 at 5:21 PM, TimB said:

So like the CMC’s depiction of next weekend?

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EC looks more like the CMC than the GFS so the 80 streak may break earlier than I thought if they are on to something. 

[Bubbler86]

  On 4/15/2022 at 6:46 PM, TimB said:

Can’t see anything accumulating here in mid-afternoon with August equivalent sun angle and temps in the mid to upper 30s. Still a better chance in areas where the heaviest precip moves through after dark.

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Those are some of the areas that are in the contest.  Verbatim there would be some big snows in Central NY. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z Euro was too tucked for the LSV this run. We need the low to track 50 to 100 miles further east to have a better chance of some snow out of this event down here.

 The I-99 corridor looks to be in a great spot at this time for snow.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z Euro snow map 

[TugHillMatt]

  On 4/15/2022 at 7:02 PM, Bubbler86 said:

Those are some of the areas that are in the contest.  Verbatim there would be some big snows in Central NY. 

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I want a heavy 6 inch snowfall to cover up my mulch!

[Bubbler86]

  On 4/15/2022 at 7:46 PM, TugHillMatt said:

I want a heavy 6 inch snowfall to cover up my mulch!

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What color did you go with?  I have black hardwood in the front and brown cypress in the back.  Not sure which is more likely to cave Monday evening.  

[Bubbler86]

  On 4/15/2022 at 7:09 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Euro was too tucked for the LSV this run. We need the low to track 50 to 100 miles further east to have a better chance of some snow out of this event down here.

 The I-99 corridor looks to be in a great spot at this time for snow.

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Mid April tucks are for the birds.  We need tucks before the last half of spring.

[TugHillMatt]

  On 4/15/2022 at 8:06 PM, Bubbler86 said:

What color did you go with?  I have black hardwood in the front and brown cypress in the back.  Not sure which is more likely to cave Monday evening.  

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I definitely prefer a natural, brown mulch.

[Bubbler86]

Nam definitely gravitated toward the others at 18Z.  Rgem trended  the wrong way as well.  HH is not HH tonight...for the LSV,

[mahantango#1]

Was a little surprised it made it to 74 today. That sun is doing wonders.

[Bubbler86]

  On 4/16/2022 at 2:45 AM, losetoa6 said:

Chase to Cumberland 

 

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Rouzerville's 2-3" may be chase worthy?  LOL

[Bubbler86]

Pretty universal modeled forecasting of 64-68 for MDT highs today. 

[Bubbler86]

EC Snowmap.  EC also show3d yet another one of those cold, windy, graupel/snow/rain shower days coming Tuesday.

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

6z NAM brings snow from the river on west and to the north of the turnpike.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GFS still gets snow to the river on west, but spares Lebanon & Tamaqua from any snow.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning.

Monday will begin with a mix of rain and snow spreading north/east into Central PA. The column temperatures may support plain snow for a few hours, but the warm-ish ground and ever- higher sun angle will keep accums to a minimum on Monday. Will continue to carry around an inch for Somerset Co, and less elsewhere for Mon AM. It then rains for a good portion of the day as the next upper trough pushes in from the Upper Great
Lakes. The air cools off again Mon evening, and a slushy coating is again possible for the Alleghenies.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Later Monday night into Tuesday afternoon still has to be watched for some more snow, given developing low off the coast. Later in the day on Tuesday, lake effect and upslope snow showers will be possible.

[Bubbler86]

  On 4/16/2022 at 12:04 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning.

Monday will begin with a mix of rain and snow spreading north/east into Central PA. The column temperatures may support plain snow for a few hours, but the warm-ish ground and ever- higher sun angle will keep accums to a minimum on Monday. Will continue to carry around an inch for Somerset Co, and less elsewhere for Mon AM. It then rains for a good portion of the day as the next upper trough pushes in from the Upper Great
Lakes. The air cools off again Mon evening, and a slushy coating is again possible for the Alleghenies.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Later Monday night into Tuesday afternoon still has to be watched for some more snow, given developing low off the coast. Later in the day on Tuesday, lake effect and upslope snow showers will be possible.

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Lovin' the tracking in Mid April.   And we have sort of been ignoring the Tuesday snow potential.  Could be some in the LSV who see snow both days. 

[Voyager]

  On 4/16/2022 at 11:57 AM, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z GFS still gets snow to the river on west, but spares Lebanon & Tamaqua from any snow.

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I approve this message...lol

[Bubbler86]

  On 4/16/2022 at 12:33 PM, Voyager said:

I approve this message...lol

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I think he was probably offering a peace offer in that post :-) 

[TugHillMatt]

  On 4/16/2022 at 12:20 PM, Bubbler86 said:

Lovin' the tracking in Mid April.   And we have sort of been ignoring the Tuesday snow potential.  Could be some in the LSV who see snow both days. 

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Looking good for up here early in the week. All the people that went away for Spring Break are not going to enjoy coming back, as it's snowing here this morning as well. Nothing laying yet...Tug is a different story.

[Voyager]

  On 4/16/2022 at 12:37 PM, Bubbler86 said:

I think he was probably offering a peace offer in that post :-) 

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Perhaps. I doubt I see anything other than maybe white rain down here, but up on the I-81 ridge top from Tremont to Hazleton (which is an entirely different world weatherwise) there could be.

[Bubbler86]

  On 4/16/2022 at 12:41 PM, TugHillMatt said:

Looking good for up here early in the week. All the people that went away for Spring Break are not going to enjoy coming back, as it's snowing here this morning as well. Nothing laying yet...Tug is a different story.

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We may have to live vicariously through you. 

[Blizzard of 93]

  On 4/16/2022 at 12:46 PM, Bubbler86 said:

We may have to live vicariously through you. 

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I am thinking of inviting myself to go to see @MAG5035 or the cabin of @pasnownut to see this snow event!

[Itstrainingtime]

Elliott on Monday:

My attention then turns to a storm system moving northeastward from the Carolinas to the southern New England coastline from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Although the air mass ahead of and to the northwest of the system will be unseasonably cold, it's almost impossible for snow to fall in southeastern PA during the daylight hours in mid-April. The fact that temperatures will rebound into the upper 40s to low 50s before precipitation arrives in the afternoon makes it virtually impossible for snow to occur. In the highest terrain of central and northern PA (above 1700 feet), precipitation will arrive several hours earlier with temperatures only in the 30s. So, I actually do expect a light (1-3") accumulation of snow in these areas.. but only on non-paved surfaces, of course. However, precipitation should remain solely in the form of rain across the Lower Susquehanna Valley

[Superstorm]

  On 4/16/2022 at 2:54 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Elliott on Monday:
My attention then turns to a storm system moving northeastward from the Carolinas to the southern New England coastline from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Although the air mass ahead of and to the northwest of the system will be unseasonably cold, it's almost impossible for snow to fall in southeastern PA during the daylight hours in mid-April. The fact that temperatures will rebound into the upper 40s to low 50s before precipitation arrives in the afternoon makes it virtually impossible for snow to occur. In the highest terrain of central and northern PA (above 1700 feet), precipitation will arrive several hours earlier with temperatures only in the 30s. So, I actually do expect a light (1-3") accumulation of snow in these areas.. but only on non-paved surfaces, of course. However, precipitation should remain solely in the form of rain across the Lower Susquehanna Valley

Yeah, we would need a wrapped up bomb to get snow towards the coast this time of year.


.

[Blizzard of 93]

I’ve seen snow in the daylight in May just 2 years ago at only a few hundred feet of elevation.

If conditions are right, it can snow. If rates are good, it can stick to many surfaces, even during the day.

[Superstorm]

AO TANKING.

This pattern would have been so good a month or two ago for us snow enthusiasts.

This time of year, it’s just irritating.


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[paweather]

What does it look like for snow Monday?

[Bubbler86]

Pretty toasty 65 out.

[Itstrainingtime]

  On 4/16/2022 at 2:54 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Elliott on Monday:

My attention then turns to a storm system moving northeastward from the Carolinas to the southern New England coastline from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Although the air mass ahead of and to the northwest of the system will be unseasonably cold, it's almost impossible for snow to fall in southeastern PA during the daylight hours in mid-April. The fact that temperatures will rebound into the upper 40s to low 50s before precipitation arrives in the afternoon makes it virtually impossible for snow to occur. In the highest terrain of central and northern PA (above 1700 feet), precipitation will arrive several hours earlier with temperatures only in the 30s. So, I actually do expect a light (1-3") accumulation of snow in these areas.. but only on non-paved surfaces, of course. However, precipitation should remain solely in the form of rain across the Lower Susquehanna Valley

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  On 4/16/2022 at 4:25 PM, paweather said:

What does it look like for snow Monday?

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