Weather Will Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 WB 12Z EURO play by play…Happy Easter!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 The tomorrow storm is no longer in the medium to long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Thinking about chasing to Davis tomorrow. Or should I just stay here?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 WB 18Z GFS: I started a thread for tomorrow and added these maps to the thread. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 This is awful. Absolutely awful. This gonna turn into 3 la ninas in a row? Smh This gonna be the dang norm? How long, dang it??? Cannot believe this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 I'm telling ya if we get a 3rd consecutive nina...it might be the longest big snow drought since the 70s. Well, for my yard anyway....Some of you tried to tell me before this winter began that I was jumping the gun...but lo and behold look what happened! Busy NS train of vorts with no space, coastal scraper benefiting CAPE and other beaches...textbook. Exactly the kind of thing I expected going in. Forgive me if I'm not convinced ninas won't behave differently. But I suppose it's still better than no snow at all...not many ninas are complete shutouts. It's just...ya still want a little more SOMETIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm telling ya if we get a 3rd consecutive nina...it might be the longest big snow drought since the 70s. Well, for my yard anyway....Some of you tried to tell me before this winter began that I was jumping the gun...but lo and behold look what happened! Busy NS train of vorts with no space, coastal scraper benefiting CAPE and other beaches...textbook. Exactly the kind of thing I expected going in. But I suppose it's still better than no snow at all...I just miss warning events, man. Never got 'em every year, but this may be year #7 of nickel and dime events. Basically like 70-78! Boooo.... Too bad (Nina) cannot be sabotaged like say a sequencer! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm telling ya if we get a 3rd consecutive nina...it might be the longest big snow drought since the 70s. Well, for my yard anyway....Some of you tried to tell me before this winter began that I was jumping the gun...but lo and behold look what happened! Busy NS train of vorts with no space, coastal scraper benefiting CAPE and other beaches...textbook. Exactly the kind of thing I expected going in. Forgive me if I'm not convinced ninas won't behave differently. But I suppose it's still better than no snow at all...not many ninas are complete shutouts. It's just...ya still want a little more SOMETIME. back away from the edge bud, it's mid-April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Model war for Saturday highs temps, back door cold front or Not???? WB 18Z GFS, 12Z EURO and 12Z Can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 GFS loses if recent history means anything. Spilt the difference between the Euro and CMC. I will side closer to the Euro. 70 seems about right. What a day it will be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS loses if recent history means anything. Spilt the difference between the Euro and CMC. I will side closer to the Euro. 70 seems about right. What a day it will be! We will have a couple beautiful days before the threat of the back door front either way. I just don’t get the focus on the not nice days. Everyone is totally entitled to feel how they want. But I really don’t get it. We’ve had so many gorgeous days in the last month. We have a couple more coming in the not so distant future. But there is so much complaining about the minority cruddy days. Is the expectation that every spring day be sunny and 70? Besides we really need it to rain a bit now or we will be in big trouble come the dry stretches in summer. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 I like the nice days but this would be a pretty boring place if everyday was sunny and 70. I know I’m weird but I loved focusing on the weather today!!!! It was a great day. I took off and enjoyed looking out the window, going for a drive, and savoring what will probably be the last snowfall in my backyard for at least 8 months…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We will have a couple beautiful days before the threat of the back door front either way. I just don’t get the focus on the not nice days. Everyone is totally entitled to feel how they want. But I really don’t get it. We’ve had so many gorgeous days in the last month. We have a couple more coming in the not so distant future. But there is so much complaining about the minority cruddy days. Is the expectation that every spring day be sunny and 70? Besides we really need it to rain a bit now or we will be in big trouble come the dry stretches in summer. To each their own. I expect Spring to be changeable, and I enjoy the cooler days mixed in as they will quickly become few and far between then completely non existent for several months going forward. And yes we need some rain in April and May before we become solely dependent on scattered convection for moisture during most of the summer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 6 hours ago, TSG said: back away from the edge bud, it's mid-April Sorry I'm gonna try...just seeing that deep blue still there kinda got on my nerves, man. We shall see how it looks in July/August... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 11 hours ago, Weather Will said: Model war for Saturday highs temps, back door cold front or Not???? WB 18Z GFS, 12Z EURO and 12Z Can NY City - that's one heck of a heat island!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 Not really sure where else to post this question, but has anyone else noticed that we've been getting these late season -NAOs more often? Seems almost like clockwork we get a blocking pattern late March into mid April then we're right into summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not really sure where else to post this question, but has anyone else noticed that we've been getting these late season -NAOs more often? Seems almost like clockwork we get a blocking pattern late March into mid April then we're right into summer. Yep, it's been a thing for several years. You're not the only one: TLDR: A bit of reasoned speculation, but probably due to downstream effects of rapid warming in the North Pacific. Looks like a transient decadal response to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 Decent looking -NAO being advertised on the means as we head into May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not really sure where else to post this question, but has anyone else noticed that we've been getting these late season -NAOs more often? Seems almost like clockwork we get a blocking pattern late March into mid April then we're right into summer. Yes. I have noticed it. And I am kind of done with it. Give me the blocking during winter not in April please. I know PSU and some others have talked about how we have had a bunch of nice days this so far. But not really out here. It has been cold pretty much wall to wall with the exception of last weekend. Which was gorgeous. It is becoming tiring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yes. I have noticed it. And I am kind of done with it. Give me the blocking during winter not in April please. I know PSU and some others have talked about how we have had a bunch of nice days this so far. But not really out here. It has been cold pretty much wall to wall with the exception of last weekend. Which was gorgeous. It is becoming tiring. Shhh, you’re just being irrational. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 2 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Yes. I have noticed it. And I am kind of done with it. Give me the blocking during winter not in April please. I know PSU and some others have talked about how we have had a bunch of nice days this so far. But not really out here. It has been cold pretty much wall to wall with the exception of last weekend. Which was gorgeous. It is becoming tiring. Nothing we can do about any of it, other than take it in stride and enjoy whatever weather we get. Not like it's been cloudy/rainy and miserable for days on end where you can't enjoy the outdoors at all. Put a jacket on and go for a hike. Refreshing. At least you can walk more than 10 feet without sweating profusely, and no flies and mosquitoes biting at you, although that will all become the norm soon enough and last for months. I will adapt to it and still do my thing outdoors, although I find it to be less comfortable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 20, 2022 Share Posted April 20, 2022 The longer we delay A/C weather the better. 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 20, 2022 Share Posted April 20, 2022 ^where the **** was this in February 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 20, 2022 Share Posted April 20, 2022 3 hours ago, snowfan said: The longer we delay A/C weather the better. I’ll pass on 50s and low 60s in late April / early May. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 20, 2022 Share Posted April 20, 2022 On 4/19/2022 at 2:35 PM, csnavywx said: Yep, it's been a thing for several years. You're not the only one: TLDR: A bit of reasoned speculation, but probably due to downstream effects of rapid warming in the North Pacific. Looks like a transient decadal response to me. This is just a hypothesis of mine and I have no evidence whatsoever to back this up but... this recent trend of a colder pattern for the northern US and Canada come springtime. There are studies showing that the stratosphere is becoming colder (and stronger?) on average during the winter as the troposphere warms. Ex: This past February saw the coldest 50mb temps on record in the stratosphere over the high latitudes. I wonder whether the colder SPV during the winter allows it to survive longer (on average) towards spring without a significant disruption until the sun angle increases forcing it to weaken anyway. When it finally does weaken it may affect the troposphere and lead to more high-latitude blocking depending on how dramatic the disruption and/or SPV split is. Of course, the SPV and TPV are not always connected as seen earlier this winter and many other times in the past. Also, one could argue that there isn't enough data yet to know for sure how climate change is affecting the SPV/TPV. Like I said... just a hypothesis of mine. I have no concrete evidence to back it up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 20, 2022 Share Posted April 20, 2022 On 4/18/2022 at 8:53 PM, psuhoffman said: We will have a couple beautiful days before the threat of the back door front either way. I just don’t get the focus on the not nice days. Everyone is totally entitled to feel how they want. But I really don’t get it. We’ve had so many gorgeous days in the last month. We have a couple more coming in the not so distant future. But there is so much complaining about the minority cruddy days. Is the expectation that every spring day be sunny and 70? Besides we really need it to rain a bit now or we will be in big trouble come the dry stretches in summer. Because not-nice days in April suck. I guess I don't get why you don't get it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 20, 2022 Share Posted April 20, 2022 27 minutes ago, mattie g said: Because not-nice days in April suck. I guess I don't get why you don't get it. He gets it. He just doesn't get why you focus on those days. We get sucky days in every month to be fair, and what defines a 'not nice' day is subjective. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 20, 2022 Share Posted April 20, 2022 DCA running a -0.6 thru 19th after this terribly chilly last 3 days, but don't worry, should be back on the plus side by Saturday or Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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