nj2va Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: According to the 12z gfs it certainly does not look warm after Thursday for foreseeable future. Ugh Craptastic rest of April. Awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Craptastic rest of April. Awful You know what that means? May blowtorch, which also means a ton of complaining from people who think it's too hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol. I don't know if this was directed at me but should I not comment on the long range in the long range thread? Its all good. Its not directed at you. Its more about how we are now having really nice spring weather and it will get too damn chilly again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, mattie g said: You know what that means? May blowtorch, which also means a ton of complaining from people who think it's too hot. well, it's certainly the danger when people cheer-lead for cold as **** aprils. We end up shooting through the best part of spring and missing the days in the 70s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 The midlatitudes are generally characterized by changeable weather, esp during the transitional months. Expecting temps to be consistently in the 70s in April is pretty silly. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Looks pretty typical. The 'anomalously cold' period is upper 50s/low 60s for highs on the mean. The rest of the month also tilts towards drier than normal as advertised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 32 minutes ago, CAPE said: The midlatitudes are generally characterized by changeable weather, esp during the transitional months. Expecting temps to be consistently in the 70s in April is pretty silly. I want my sun and 70s and I want it now! 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 11 hours ago, CAPE said: The midlatitudes are generally characterized by changeable weather, esp during the transitional months. Expecting temps to be consistently in the 70s in April is pretty silly. let a girl dream dang it! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 14 hours ago, Chris78 said: Lol. I don't know if this was directed at me but should I not comment on the long range in the long range thread? Its all good. you're fine friend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 @SnowenOutThere Yeap. I know what you're about to post. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Hagerstown hauler 2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Just now, George BM said: @SnowenOutThere Yeap. I know what you're about to post. Someone has to post the fantasy range GFS instead of doing classwork. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Easter looking seasonably chilly with highs in the 50s. Storm delayed or denied for Monday? Model war with GFS saying what storm and Canadian and EURO want A Nor’easter (cold rain or even some sleet mixed in with some snow in the higher elevations. Will try to post some maps after 12Z… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 Happy Easter 3 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 46 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Happy Easter Euro has a storm as well still, albeit not a snowstorm east of the mountains. GFS still wants nothing to with it. WB 12Z EURO and Can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Happy Easter Funny thing is that’s it’s not even like 300 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Funny thing is that’s it’s not even like 300 hours away. start a thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 On 4/12/2022 at 6:48 PM, CAPE said: Looks pretty typical. The 'anomalously cold' period is upper 50s/low 60s for highs on the mean. The rest of the month also tilts towards drier than normal as advertised. I don’t engage with the “oh no April is ruined” thing anymore. First of all this happens almost every year lately yet some people still act like this is not normal. And it seems exaggerated. Our avg high is still only ~60 to start April and ~72 to end it. It’s not supposed to be in the 70s everyday in April. Yea when it’s raining it can be pretty miserable during a -NAO April (48 and rain sucks) but who cares it’s raining we probably wouldn’t be doing outside activities anyways. When it’s sunny even in a cold pattern it’s going to get close to 60 by mid April. Next week Wed/Thurs will be in the 60s! And I bet we get a day close to 70 by next weekend somewhere. I dont get it when ppl act like a few days in the 50s ruins the whole month or act like a 60 degree sunny day is somehow awful. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t engage with the “oh no April is ruined” thing anymore. First of all this happens almost every year lately yet some people still act like this is not normal. And it seems exaggerated. Our avg high is still only ~60 to start April and ~72 to end it. It’s not supposed to be in the 70s everyday in April. Yea when it’s raining it can be pretty miserable during a -NAO April (48 and rain sucks) but who cares it’s raining we probably wouldn’t be doing outside activities anyways. When it’s sunny even in a cold pattern it’s going to get close to 60 by mid April. Next week Wed/Thurs will be in the 60s! And I bet we get a day close to 70 by next weekend somewhere. I dont get it when ppl act like a few days in the 50s ruins the whole month or act like a 60 degree sunny day is somehow awful. We just had 2 days in the 80s with humidity. Gross. Maybe that will remind some folks that days in the 60s in April should be cherished. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 Bring it. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A lot of uncertainty remains with the evolution of the potential coastal storm during the Monday through Tuesday period. The GFS remains a bit of an outlier in delaying the organization of the storm until farther downstream into coastal New England. I suspect something more in line with what a consensus of a ECMWF/Canadian blend is what is more likely to pan out given that these types of setups tend to trend more amplified with the guidance having a right of track bias. This would certainly be a much bigger issue if this was January since we would probably be talking warning level snow somewhere in the area, but fortunately it`s mid-April, and thus accumulating snowfall (especially anything with impact) is unlikely. In any case, I`ve kept with a blend of guidance for the forecast and have maintained likely PoPs across the whole area for Monday night, which does currently appear to be the period most likely to experience widespread rain. Some wet snow may mix in across the southern Poconos, but antecedent conditions will probably preclude any appreciable accumulation more than a light/wet coating. I think the bigger story with this system will be the potential for freshwater flooding concerns (and perhaps some tidal flooding concerns). This setup has the potential to bring a widespread quick 1"+ of rain, so we`ll have to keep a close eye on this in the coming forecast updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 56 minutes ago, CAPE said: Bring it. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A lot of uncertainty remains with the evolution of the potential coastal storm during the Monday through Tuesday period. The GFS remains a bit of an outlier in delaying the organization of the storm until farther downstream into coastal New England. I suspect something more in line with what a consensus of a ECMWF/Canadian blend is what is more likely to pan out given that these types of setups tend to trend more amplified with the guidance having a right of track bias. This would certainly be a much bigger issue if this was January since we would probably be talking warning level snow somewhere in the area, but fortunately it`s mid-April, and thus accumulating snowfall (especially anything with impact) is unlikely. In any case, I`ve kept with a blend of guidance for the forecast and have maintained likely PoPs across the whole area for Monday night, which does currently appear to be the period most likely to experience widespread rain. Some wet snow may mix in across the southern Poconos, but antecedent conditions will probably preclude any appreciable accumulation more than a light/wet coating. I think the bigger story with this system will be the potential for freshwater flooding concerns (and perhaps some tidal flooding concerns). This setup has the potential to bring a widespread quick 1"+ of rain, so we`ll have to keep a close eye on this in the coming forecast updates. I used to like you 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 A few days of cool weather won’t kill you. Not gonna last long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 ^^ great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 Happy spring y’all .. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Happy spring y’all .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 6 hours ago, nj2va said: I used to like you CAPE's new assumed roll of spring board troll is a sucky heel turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: CAPE's new assumed roll of spring board troll is a sucky heel turn. lol I am not in here rooting for snowstorms. Today is great. I will also enjoy the weekend weather too. Eff days in the 80s with low 60s dews this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 Let’s see what the euro does I guess, but very model that’s already run has trended toward a more wintry solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: CAPE's new assumed roll of spring board troll is a sucky heel turn. nah, I get it. mid to upper 70s isn't normal for this time of the year, despite how many of us enjoy it. today is more seasonable. even sunday's upper 50s is more seasonable. but with that said, i much prefer 75 over 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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