April Medium/Long Range Discussion

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

According to the 12z gfs it certainly does not look warm after Thursday for foreseeable future.  Ugh

 Craptastic rest of April. Awful

[mattie g]

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

 Craptastic rest of April. Awful

You know what that means? May blowtorch, which also means a ton of complaining from people who think it's too hot.

[H2O]

35 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Lol. I don't know if this was directed at me but should I not comment on the long range in the long range thread? 

Its all good.

Its not directed at you.  Its more about how we are now having really nice spring weather and it will get too damn chilly again.

[North Balti Zen]

9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

You know what that means? May blowtorch, which also means a ton of complaining from people who think it's too hot.

well, it's certainly the danger when people cheer-lead for cold as **** aprils. We end up shooting through the best part of spring and missing the days in the 70s. 

[CAPE]

The midlatitudes are generally characterized by changeable weather, esp during the transitional months. Expecting temps to be consistently in the 70s in April is pretty silly.

[CAPE]

Looks pretty typical. The 'anomalously cold' period is upper 50s/low 60s for highs on the mean. The rest of the month also tilts towards drier than normal as advertised.

 

[nj2va]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The midlatitudes are generally characterized by changeable weather, esp during the transitional months. Expecting temps to be consistently in the 70s in April is pretty silly.

I want my sun and 70s and I want it now! 
 

[mappy]

11 hours ago, CAPE said:

The midlatitudes are generally characterized by changeable weather, esp during the transitional months. Expecting temps to be consistently in the 70s in April is pretty silly.

let a girl dream dang it! 

[mappy]

14 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Lol. I don't know if this was directed at me but should I not comment on the long range in the long range thread? 

Its all good.

you're fine friend! 

[George BM]

@SnowenOutThere

Yeap. I know what you're about to post. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Hagerstown hauler 2.0

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, George BM said:

@SnowenOutThere

Yeap. I know what you're about to post.

Someone has to post the fantasy range GFS instead of doing classwork. 

[Weather Will]

Easter looking seasonably chilly with highs in the 50s.  Storm delayed or denied for Monday?  Model war with GFS saying what storm and Canadian and EURO want A Nor’easter (cold rain or even some sleet mixed in with some snow in the higher elevations.  Will try to post some maps after 12Z…

[Chris78]

  Happy Easter

[Weather Will]

46 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

  Happy Easter

Euro has a storm as well still, albeit not a snowstorm east of the mountains.  GFS still wants nothing to with it.  WB 12Z EURO and Can.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

  Happy Easter

Funny thing is that’s it’s not even like 300 hours away.

[ge0]

25 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Funny thing is that’s it’s not even like 300 hours away.

start a thread

[psuhoffman]

On 4/12/2022 at 6:48 PM, CAPE said:

Looks pretty typical. The 'anomalously cold' period is upper 50s/low 60s for highs on the mean. The rest of the month also tilts towards drier than normal as advertised.

 

I don’t engage with the “oh no April is ruined” thing anymore. First of all this happens almost every year lately yet some people still act like this is not normal. And it seems exaggerated. Our avg high is still only ~60 to start April and ~72 to end it. It’s not supposed to be in the 70s everyday in April. Yea when it’s raining it can be pretty miserable during a -NAO April (48 and rain sucks) but who cares it’s raining we probably wouldn’t be doing outside activities anyways. When it’s sunny even in a cold pattern it’s going to get close to 60 by mid April. Next week Wed/Thurs will be in the 60s!  And I bet we get a day close to 70 by next weekend somewhere. I dont get it when ppl act like a few days in the 50s ruins the whole month or act like a 60 degree sunny day is somehow awful. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t engage with the “oh no April is ruined” thing anymore. First of all this happens almost every year lately yet some people still act like this is not normal. And it seems exaggerated. Our avg high is still only ~60 to start April and ~72 to end it. It’s not supposed to be in the 70s everyday in April. Yea when it’s raining it can be pretty miserable during a -NAO April (48 and rain sucks) but who cares it’s raining we probably wouldn’t be doing outside activities anyways. When it’s sunny even in a cold pattern it’s going to get close to 60 by mid April. Next week Wed/Thurs will be in the 60s!  And I bet we get a day close to 70 by next weekend somewhere. I dont get it when ppl act like a few days in the 50s ruins the whole month or act like a 60 degree sunny day is somehow awful. 

We just had 2 days in the 80s with humidity. Gross. Maybe that will remind some folks that days in the 60s in April should be cherished.

[CAPE]

Bring it.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A lot of uncertainty remains with the evolution of the potential
coastal storm during the Monday through Tuesday period. The GFS
remains a bit of an outlier in delaying the organization of the
storm until farther downstream into coastal New England. I suspect
something more in line with what a consensus of a ECMWF/Canadian
blend is what is more likely to pan out given that these types of
setups tend to trend more amplified with the guidance having a right
of track bias. This would certainly be a much bigger issue if this
was January since we would probably be talking warning level snow
somewhere in the area, but fortunately it`s mid-April, and thus
accumulating snowfall (especially anything with impact) is unlikely.

In any case, I`ve kept with a blend of guidance for the forecast and
have maintained likely PoPs across the whole area for Monday night,
which does currently appear to be the period most likely to
experience widespread rain. Some wet snow may mix in across the
southern Poconos, but antecedent conditions will probably preclude
any appreciable accumulation more than a light/wet coating. I think
the bigger story with this system will be the potential for
freshwater flooding concerns (and perhaps some tidal flooding
concerns). This setup has the potential to bring a widespread
quick 1"+ of rain, so we`ll have to keep a close eye on this in
the coming forecast updates.

[mappy]

UGH

[nj2va]

56 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Bring it.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A lot of uncertainty remains with the evolution of the potential
coastal storm during the Monday through Tuesday period. The GFS
remains a bit of an outlier in delaying the organization of the
storm until farther downstream into coastal New England. I suspect
something more in line with what a consensus of a ECMWF/Canadian
blend is what is more likely to pan out given that these types of
setups tend to trend more amplified with the guidance having a right
of track bias. This would certainly be a much bigger issue if this
was January since we would probably be talking warning level snow
somewhere in the area, but fortunately it`s mid-April, and thus
accumulating snowfall (especially anything with impact) is unlikely.

In any case, I`ve kept with a blend of guidance for the forecast and
have maintained likely PoPs across the whole area for Monday night,
which does currently appear to be the period most likely to
experience widespread rain. Some wet snow may mix in across the
southern Poconos, but antecedent conditions will probably preclude
any appreciable accumulation more than a light/wet coating. I think
the bigger story with this system will be the potential for
freshwater flooding concerns (and perhaps some tidal flooding
concerns). This setup has the potential to bring a widespread
quick 1"+ of rain, so we`ll have to keep a close eye on this in
the coming forecast updates.

I used to like you  

[snowfan]

A few days of cool weather won’t kill you. Not gonna last long.

 

[mappy]

^^ great!

[WinterWxLuvr]

Happy spring y’all ..

[NorthArlington101]

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Happy spring y’all ..

[North Balti Zen]

6 hours ago, nj2va said:

I used to like you  

CAPE's new assumed roll of spring board troll is a sucky heel turn. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

CAPE's new assumed roll of spring board troll is a sucky heel turn. 

lol

I am not in here rooting for snowstorms.

Today is great. I will also enjoy the weekend weather too. Eff days in the 80s with low 60s dews this early. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Let’s see what the euro does I guess, but very model that’s already run has trended toward a more wintry solution.

 

[mappy]

22 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

CAPE's new assumed roll of spring board troll is a sucky heel turn. 

nah, I get it. mid to upper 70s isn't normal for this time of the year, despite how many of us enjoy it. 

today is more seasonable. even sunday's upper 50s is more seasonable.

but with that said, i much prefer 75 over 55