April 2022

[MJO812]

I will be in the Poconos this weekend. 

low for Saturday night is going to be 32 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal is going for a repeat of last summer. High dewpoint ridge east of New England. It could allow more tropical systems to get stuck underneath like we saw last summer. We had 2 tropical and 2 post tropical systems affect our region. There were a total of 21 named storms last year. The Euro has 18-19 named storms for this year. The big story for us was the historic flooding with Ida and Henri. 
 

 

I have feeling we take a real hit this summer. Gloria in 85 was the last real hurricane to hit Long Island. We are more then due

[tek1972]

The Euro seasonal is going for a repeat of last summer. High dewpoint ridge east of New England. It could allow more tropical systems to get stuck underneath like we saw last summer. We had 2 tropical and 2 post tropical systems affect our region. There were a total of 21 named storms last year. The Euro has 18-19 named storms for this year. The big story for us was the historic flooding with Ida and Henri. 
 



 

Sucks for fishing off Montauk. Last summer was constant SE winds

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I will be in the Poconos this weekend. 

low for Saturday night is going to be 32 

you'll be sleeping LOL

[forkyfork]

18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

once again i think the models are too far north and removed from the best cape with tomorrow's convection. however that favors the metro this time around

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal is going for a repeat of last summer. High dewpoint ridge east of New England. It could allow more tropical systems to get stuck underneath like we saw last summer. We had 2 tropical and 2 post tropical systems affect our region. There were a total of 21 named storms last year. The Euro has 18-19 named storms for this year. The big story for us was the historic flooding with Ida and Henri. 

 

 

that belt of anomalously poleward subtropical ridges has been a theme for the past 5 years

[jm1220]

45 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have feeling we take a real hit this summer. Gloria in 85 was the last real hurricane to hit Long Island. We are more then due

I know it’s OT but Sandy was a 946mb storm when it struck ACY and we were in the right front quadrant. It’s the worst storm that many of us will see in our lifetimes. It was a Cat 3 intensity storm but spread over a huge area so the top winds were reduced, but the surge stayed huge. 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have feeling we take a real hit this summer. Gloria in 85 was the last real hurricane to hit Long Island. We are more then due

Don’t forget Bob in 1991 which hit eastern Suffolk quite hard.

[Rmine1]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I know it’s OT but Sandy was a 946mb storm when it struck ACY and we were in the right front quadrant. It’s the worst storm that many of us will see in our lifetimes. It was a Cat 3 intensity storm but spread over a huge area so the top winds were reduced, but the surge stayed huge. 

Isais, although a TS, left it’s mark. Gloria was hauling, and hit at low tide. The stars aligned for Sandy

[Stormlover74]

58 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

Most of the models missed this initial heavy batch of rain

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that belt of anomalously poleward subtropical ridges has been a theme for the past 5 years

You can see the gradual progression to this summer pattern since 2010.

 

 

 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

that belt of anomalously poleward subtropical ridges has been a theme for the past 5 years

This follows my thoughts developed over the last 40 years that tropical and subtropical storms are heat pumps. The storms pull heat out of the tropics and bring it poleward so with the higher number of storms over the last 20 years there needs to be more deep, southerly reaching troughs to bring the cool air down to balance things out. (How far off are my thoughts?)

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

57 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I know it’s OT but Sandy was a 946mb storm when it struck ACY and we were in the right front quadrant. It’s the worst storm that many of us will see in our lifetimes. It was a Cat 3 intensity storm but spread over a huge area so the top winds were reduced, but the surge stayed huge. 

Of course Sandy was on another level. Hence the 600 year reoccurrence rate. But it made landfall in New Jersey.  I’m talking about a hurricane with an intact tropical center and that was Gloria. One thing that Sandy didn’t have was an eyewall with wind gusts over 100mph. When we have another carol or 38 the damage to the electrical grid is going to be a true disaster.

[nycwinter]

this probably is  the last day until next fall i was able to wear my coat ski cap and gloves on..

[uncle W]

35 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

this probably is  the last day until next fall i was able to wear my coat ski cap and gloves on..

wait till May..

[RedSky]

41 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

this probably is  the last day until next fall i was able to wear my coat ski cap and gloves on..

Try the 3rd week of April with another deep trough

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Of course Sandy was on another level. Hence the 600 year reoccurrence rate. But it made landfall in New Jersey.  I’m talking about a hurricane with an intact tropical center and that was Gloria. One thing that Sandy didn’t have was an eyewall with wind gusts over 100mph. When we have another carol or 38 the damage to the electrical grid is going to be a true disaster.

A 38 repeat would see some areas out of power for months....

[Rmine1]

Where’s all the rain? Absolutely awful outside. 49 and misting in Brightwaters 

[Rtd208]

Light to moderate rain falling

Picked up 0.51" of rain so far today.

Current temp 48

[matt8204]

Spring is a total waste around here weather-wise.  

[FPizz]

Over 1" of rain now

[uncle W]

NYC precipitation for April by the decades...

decade ave precip...ave snow

1870's......3.86"..........1.8"

1880's......2.92"..........0.7"

1890's......2.59"..........0.8"

1900's......3.94"..........0.6"

1910'2......3.78"..........2.3"

1920's......3.62"..........0.9"

1930's......3.46"..........0.6"

1940's......3.33"..........1.1"

1950's......3.82"..........1.0"

1960's......3.33"..........0.1"

1970's......3.82"..........0.1"

1980's......5.59"..........1.0"

1990's......3.77"..........0.1"

2000's......4.67"..........0.5"

2010's......3.89"..........0.6"

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, uncle W said:

NYC precipitation for April by the decades...

April 2007 was in a class by itself for one day spring rainfall.

 

Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2022-04-06
1	7.57	2007-04-15
2	4.97	2014-04-30
3	4.31	1983-04-10
4	3.42	1980-04-09
5	3.29	1983-04-16
6	2.82	2018-04-16
7	2.76	1984-04-05
8	2.74	1980-04-28
9	2.72	1909-04-14
10	2.52	1886-04-06

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

April 2007 was in a class by itself.

 

Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2022-04-06
1	7.57	2007-04-15
2	4.97	2014-04-30
3	4.31	1983-04-10
4	3.42	1980-04-09
5	3.29	1983-04-16
6	2.82	2018-04-16
7	2.76	1984-04-05
8	2.74	1980-04-28
9	2.72	1909-04-14
10	2.52	1886-04-06

the 1980's had five storms on the list...it had the wettest April Decade...

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

the 1980's had five storms on the list...it had the wettest April Decade...

Nearly all the basements in Long Beach flooded during the spring of 1983.

[uncle W]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

April 2007 was in a class by itself.

 

Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2022-04-06
1	7.57	2007-04-15
2	4.97	2014-04-30
3	4.31	1983-04-10
4	3.42	1980-04-09
5	3.29	1983-04-16
6	2.82	2018-04-16
7	2.76	1984-04-05
8	2.74	1980-04-28
9	2.72	1909-04-14
10	2.52	1886-04-06

before 1980 the wettest April storm was from 1909...the last 40 years or so has eight storms with more precipitation than 1909...

[snywx]

1.45” so far today.. 

temp 47

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Nearly all the basements in Long Beach flooded during the spring of 1983.

March and April 1983 was the wettest on record even if the gage was off...

year......March.....April.....total

1983.....10.54".....14.01".....24.55"

1980.....10.41".......8.26".....18.67"

2007.......5.35".....13.05".....18.40"

1998.......7.05".......6.94".....13.99"

1953.......8.76".......5.20".....13.96"

2010.....10.69".......2.99".....13.68"

1984.......6.30".......6.62".....12.92"

1913.......6.47".......6.27".....12.74"

1901.......5.47".......6.62".....12.09"

1973.......3.60".......8.05".....11.65"

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Rainfall rates are higher then what the radar suggests. Seems to be a common theme in tropical flow events. You get these small rain drops that do not show well on radar

[bluewave]

We could have used this pattern a few months ago.