donsutherland1 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with rain. Most of the rain will fall during the morning hours. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 59° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 58.3° Newark: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 59.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.5° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 55degs.(47/62) or +4. Reached 54 here yesterday. Today: 48-51, wind e. and breezy briefly, rain ending in early PM, cloudy, 45 by tomorrow AM. April 12-16, 5 days, averaging 66(56/76) or +13. 48*(99%RH) here at 7am. 55* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 46 and moderate rain here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 6, 2022 Author Share Posted April 6, 2022 The storm system for tomorrow looks more impressive than the one that we are getting today. A morning warm front with convection. This is followed by the area getting warm sectored with a nice pocket of MUCAPE. Both the mesos and Euro have heavy convection. It will be interesting to see if we can break the inversion like we did last week for some stronger winds and perhaps an isolated spin up. Weaker storm for today Heavy elevated convection on Thursday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 looks like a winter nor'easter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: looks like a winter nor'easter Would have been a nice snow storm mid winter. Nothing historic but a solid warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Would have been a nice snow storm mid winter. Nothing historic but a solid warning event. Not even. It would be a nice event but we’d be mad that the northern edge where we are is drying up and the heavy snow would be in S NJ. For liquid most of us in NYC/LI are about half an inch which would be maybe 6” or so with ratios. N of the city practically nothing. S NJ would be way better since ACY has nearly 2” from this. This storm fits the progressive winter pattern where we get a squashed fast mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 not even going to be close to a inch of rain as was predicted..with the first storm.. bust... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, nycwinter said: not even going to be close to a inch of rain as was predicted..with the first storm.. bust... models had .5 to 1" so pretty much on target though on the lower end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 22 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not even. It would be a nice event but we’d be mad that the northern edge where we are is drying up and the heavy snow would be in S NJ. For liquid most of us in NYC/LI are about half an inch which would be maybe 6” or so with ratios. N of the city practically nothing. S NJ would be way better since ACY has nearly 2” from this. This storm fits the progressive winter pattern where we get a squashed fast mover. Same ol winter pattern. Only had about .35 here and it's ending now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The storm system for tomorrow looks more impressive than the one that we are getting today. A morning warm front with convection. This is followed by the area getting warm sectored with a nice pocket of MUCAPE. Both the mesos and Euro have heavy convection. It will be interesting to see if we can break the inversion like we did last week for some stronger winds and perhaps an isolated spin up. Weaker storm for today Heavy elevated convection on Thursday impressive moisture feed from the tropical atlantic and gulf tomorrow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: looks like a winter nor'easter Except.. it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 6, 2022 Author Share Posted April 6, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: impressive moisture feed from the tropical atlantic and gulf tomorrow Unusually strong closed low to our west from tomorrow into the weekend with all the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 3" potential in bands tomorrow on the href 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 .88" with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 1 hour ago, FPizz said: .88" with this storm Thats all down the road? .99" since midnight on the other side of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Picked up 0.80" of rain for the day. Storm total 0.85" Current temp 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 once again i think the models are too far north and removed from the best cape with tomorrow's convection. however that favors the metro this time around 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 What a terrible week to work from home... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 Drizzle is likely overnight before additional steady rain arrives tomorrow. The rain could fall moderately to heavily at times tomorrow afternoon. A shower or two is possible on Friday. Overall, the week will see mainly near to somewhat below normal temperatures. There are growing hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could move into the region next week for several days. It is likely that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +31.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.640 today. On April 4 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.343 (RMM). The April 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.356 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 nws in nyc is predicting between .5 .75 for nyc on thursday which is less then what was predicted overall both storms for the city will produce less then was anticipated.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 7 hours ago, Torch said: Why? Do you have a roof leak? Roof is fine. I’m making fun of everyone who has to commute in the rain all week… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 bust on the rain today. radar looks like crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: bust on the rain today. radar looks like crap. Ok 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 Currently 46 here. Reached a high of 51 yesterday, bottomed out at 45 over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 Morning thoughts… Rain will develop and it could fall moderately to perhaps heavily this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 56° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.7° Newark: 30-Year: 59.1°; 15-Year: 59.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.3°; 15-Year: 61.9° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 55degs.(47/62) or +3. Reached 54 here yesterday. Today: T steady near 47. Rain in earnest by 2pm. to 3am. Friday, wind e. and breezy. Elevated convective TS action?, 47 tomorrow AM. Warmup next week looks more muted now, but at least dry till next Friday, less some renegrade showers on the weekend. 49*(80%RH) here at 7am.{was 53 at midnight}. 48* at 9am. 49* at 10 am{FOG<0.5mi.}. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2022 Author Share Posted April 7, 2022 Looks like a brief taste of spring for several days next week. Highs should at least reach the 70s. But a few warmer Euro and GFS runs have 80s for the usual warm spots. This is followed by the return of more blocking and cooler temperatures. The clash of air masses will result in more severe potential across the U.S. Cool weekend Brief warm up next week Next cool down with more blocking 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 17 hours ago, Poker2015 said: Thats all down the road? .99" since midnight on the other side of town. Wow, yup, that was it. .88" on the CoCoRaHS gauge, .82" on my weather station gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2022 Author Share Posted April 7, 2022 The Euro seasonal is going for a repeat of last summer. High dewpoint ridge east of New England. It could allow more tropical systems to get stuck underneath like we saw last summer. We had 2 tropical and 2 post tropical systems affect our region. There were a total of 21 named storms last year. The Euro has 18-19 named storms for this year. The big story for us was the historic flooding with Ida and Henri. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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