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April 2022


bluewave
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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy. Rain will arrive late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 54°

Newark: 54°

Philadelphia: 57°

Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 57.5°; 15-Year: 57.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 61.1°

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The next 8 days are averaging  54degs.(48/60) or +3.

Reached 54 here yesterday.

Today: 50-52,  wind s. to e., cloudy with showers by sunset.

About 2"+ of rain through the cool weekend then......

HEATWAVE ALERT>>>April 12-15  averaging 69(57/81) or +16.....but output changes by the run.     lol.

Actually the NAEFS is more BN than AN.    5590m now to 5370m Sun. AM to 5770m on Wed. PM.     The 400m is worth about 45 degrees from highest to lowest T over the period.

48*(56%RH) here at 7am.      50* at 9am.     52* at 9:30am.      53* at 10am.      54* at Noon.      50* at 6pm.

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Suffolk beat Sussex this year in 21-22 snowfall challenge. Very progressive pattern kept the storm track further east. Last winter the tucked in blocking storm track allowed Sussex to win. 

 
 

Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 38.3
ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 38.0
BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.7
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 37.0
BAITING HOLLOW COOP 33.8
BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 33.6
RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 31.5
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 30.9


 

Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE CoCoRaHS 28.0
WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 27.3
SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 27.3
MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 26.1
VERNON TWP 1.7 N CoCoRaHS 23.9
NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 21.9
SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 21.7


 

Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 64.8
NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 63.9
SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 63.7
MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 63.5
SPARTA TWP 3.3 NW CoCoRaHS 61.0


 

Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 46.1
MOUNT SINAI COOP 41.3
PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 39.3
BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 38.2
BAITING HOLLOW COOP 37.8
CENTERPORT COOP 36.7
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 35.4
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 33.5
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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Suffolk beat Sussex this year in 21-22 snowfall challenge. Very progressive pattern kept the storm track further east. Last winter the tucked in blocking storm track allowed Sussex to win. 

 
 

Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 38.3
ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 38.0
BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.7
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 37.0
BAITING HOLLOW COOP 33.8
BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 33.6
RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 31.5
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 30.9


 

Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE CoCoRaHS 28.0
WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 27.3
SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 27.3
MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 26.1
VERNON TWP 1.7 N CoCoRaHS 23.9
NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 21.9
SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 21.7


 

Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 64.8
NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 63.9
SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 63.7
MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 63.5
SPARTA TWP 3.3 NW CoCoRaHS 61.0


 

Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 46.1
MOUNT SINAI COOP 41.3
PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 39.3
BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 38.2
BAITING HOLLOW COOP 37.8
CENTERPORT COOP 36.7
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 35.4
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 33.5

Going with 31.5” final snow for the season here. Overall just about average. Shame that the 1/29 storm couldn’t have been just a little better developed and spread heavier snow back into the city. 

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40 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Going with 31.5” final snow for the season here. Overall just about average. Shame that the 1/29 storm couldn’t have been just a little better developed and spread heavier snow back into the city. 

The SPV was just too strong this winter. We could have used this strat warming and SPV weakening months earlier. Blocking this late in the season is cool and rainy rather than snowy. 
 

39C79697-2712-42DD-986B-13FC9DA02E92.gif.c25560bfd2dcaa9390eacf3c30fe79ac.gif

2CB22AFA-C132-44D4-9419-E482AB885EFF.thumb.png.9f8fd40963f6d1476ce7296791422617.png

90A12FF8-3B25-413D-BAF1-991EB228762C.thumb.webp.719130dd4ed644b19e7d5ac78c8814f1.webp

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The SPV was just too strong this winter. We could have used this strat warming and SPV weakening months earlier. Blocking this late in the season is cool and rainy rather than snowy. 
 

39C79697-2712-42DD-986B-13FC9DA02E92.gif.c25560bfd2dcaa9390eacf3c30fe79ac.gif

2CB22AFA-C132-44D4-9419-E482AB885EFF.thumb.png.9f8fd40963f6d1476ce7296791422617.png

90A12FF8-3B25-413D-BAF1-991EB228762C.thumb.webp.719130dd4ed644b19e7d5ac78c8814f1.webp

 

So annoying how this keeps popping up in April now. Does us diddly squat. 

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14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

So annoying how this keeps popping up in April now. Does us diddly squat. 

The super El Niño in 15-16 really changed up the blocking patterns.  We used to get stronger winter blocking that weakened during the spring. Now the weaker winter blocking gets stronger in the spring.  

After the event in 15-16
28537131-3BF7-4503-907A-3174B68ECD13.png.27c4a1a79369e956348a7f6ea2b3a4ae.png

8D3E8740-6514-44EF-80EB-5EDE5B94C097.png.292e2c8147faf168ec5e450cc69674fb.png

 


Before

 

ACE5F6CB-2B8B-412B-8CBC-38D2CA16EC04.png.3435449b61e3564656fcd8e68ddd7900.png
84909D56-CC2B-4D93-8AEA-8A701319F130.png.cafcb5add2932bcda7e0696d08f3c979.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The super El Niño in 15-16 really changed up the blocking patterns.  We used to get stronger winter blocking that weakened during the spring. Now the weaker winter blocking gets stronger in the spring.  

After the event in 15-16
28537131-3BF7-4503-907A-3174B68ECD13.png.27c4a1a79369e956348a7f6ea2b3a4ae.png

8D3E8740-6514-44EF-80EB-5EDE5B94C097.png.292e2c8147faf168ec5e450cc69674fb.png

 


Before

 

ACE5F6CB-2B8B-412B-8CBC-38D2CA16EC04.png.3435449b61e3564656fcd8e68ddd7900.png
84909D56-CC2B-4D93-8AEA-8A701319F130.png.cafcb5add2932bcda7e0696d08f3c979.png

Yeah, garbage. Hopefully we can get the tropics to reshuffle to stop this never ending Nina or Nina like outcome. Big part of it seems to be how the W PAC has warmed so much.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

what drought? there hasn't been a drought here since 2002?  We dont need a single drop of rain

Yeah, 2002 was the last time that NYC had water restrictions. The occasional drier intervals since then have been mostly nuisance level that have resolved rather quickly. 

99EC92E8-D09A-4B41-A401-E20DC5E6FB8B.thumb.png.27b5dccead695159600e937770bc6f5c.png

 

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NYC decade precipitation averages since 1870.
10 yr.............Ave. per year. lowest and highest year
1870's..............43.73"........39.25".......51.26"
1880's..............43.54"........35.37".......57.16"
1890's..............41.84"........35.37".......48.26"
1900's..............44.84"........37.44".......58.32"
1910's..............44.24"........33.72".......58.00"
1920's..............44.92"........37.76".......56.06"
1930's..............44.60"........33.85".......53.53"
1940's..............42.16"........36.24".......48.51"
1950's..............39.59"........35.58".......45.20"
1960's..............39.74"........26.09".......48.54"
1970's..............52.31"........35.29".......67.03"
1980's..............49.96"........38.11".......80.56"
1990's..............47.29"........40.42".......60.92"
2000's..............53.18"........35.92".......61.70"

2010's..............50.76"........38.51".......72.81" 

 

1956-1965........36.87"........26.09".......46.39"

2002-2011........56.27"........45.21".......72.81"

1870-
2019................45.51"
1870-
1969................42.92"
1970-
2019................50.70"

...........................................................................................................................................
1826-1864 from Jamiaca N.Y...1865-1868- Central Park...
years.................ave..........lowest........highest
1826-1835.......37.95"........28.78"........55.67"
1836-1845.......36.67"........32.13"........44.57"
1846-1855.......39.50"........30.08"........46.40"
1856-1865.......41.30"........31.08"........59.68"
1866-1869.......48.57"........38.26"........57.40" 4yr ave...

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Suffolk beat Sussex this year in 21-22 snowfall challenge. Very progressive pattern kept the storm track further east. Last winter the tucked in blocking storm track allowed Sussex to win. 

 
 

Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 38.3
ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 38.0
BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.7
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 37.0
BAITING HOLLOW COOP 33.8
BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 33.6
RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 31.5
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 30.9


 

Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE CoCoRaHS 28.0
WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 27.3
SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 27.3
MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 26.1
VERNON TWP 1.7 N CoCoRaHS 23.9
NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 21.9
SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 21.7


 

Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 64.8
NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 63.9
SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 63.7
MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 63.5
SPARTA TWP 3.3 NW CoCoRaHS 61.0


 

Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Total Snowfall 
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 46.1
MOUNT SINAI COOP 41.3
PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 39.3
BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 38.2
BAITING HOLLOW COOP 37.8
CENTERPORT COOP 36.7
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 35.4
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 33.5

I will take the inland weather pattern with the severe stuff.  Last week we had snow squall warnings and tornado warnings all in the same week that verified in east central PA.

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

:weenie: There is a torch for next week

Depends on how far the storm over the weekend can clear east of us. If it gets stuck over the Maritimes and heights stay low there, good chance there will be a backdoor front nearby. It'll encourage a high to develop NE of Maine and easterly flow. If it heads east and there's no blocking, we'll get the nice westerly flow for a day or two. Looks short lived unfortunately.

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24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Depends on how far the storm over the weekend can clear east of us. If it gets stuck over the Maritimes and heights stay low there, good chance there will be a backdoor front nearby. It'll encourage a high to develop NE of Maine and easterly flow. If it heads east and there's no blocking, we'll get the nice westerly flow for a day or two. Looks short lived unfortunately.

Over/under on whether or not April is a below or above normal month temperature wise?

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Rain and showers will continue overnight. Some of the rain tomorrow morning could be heavy. Overall, rain and showers and could linger through at least Thursday even as there will likely be a break tomorrow.

Overall, the week will see mainly near to somewhat below normal temperatures. There are growing hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could move into the region next week for several days.

It is likely that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was +25.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.690 today.

On April 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.372 (RMM). The April 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.331 (RMM).

 

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