LoboLeader1 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Currently 38 here as of 6AM. Reached 64 yesterday and bottomed out at 35 over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy. Rain will arrive late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 57° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.5°; 15-Year: 57.9° Newark: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 61.1° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 54degs.(48/60) or +3. Reached 54 here yesterday. Today: 50-52, wind s. to e., cloudy with showers by sunset. About 2"+ of rain through the cool weekend then...... HEATWAVE ALERT>>>April 12-15 averaging 69(57/81) or +16.....but output changes by the run. lol. Actually the NAEFS is more BN than AN. 5590m now to 5370m Sun. AM to 5770m on Wed. PM. The 400m is worth about 45 degrees from highest to lowest T over the period. 48*(56%RH) here at 7am. 50* at 9am. 52* at 9:30am. 53* at 10am. 54* at Noon. 50* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 Suffolk beat Sussex this year in 21-22 snowfall challenge. Very progressive pattern kept the storm track further east. Last winter the tucked in blocking storm track allowed Sussex to win. Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 38.3 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 38.0 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.7 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 37.0 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 33.8 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 33.6 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 31.5 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 30.9 Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE CoCoRaHS 28.0 WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 27.3 SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 27.3 MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 26.1 VERNON TWP 1.7 N CoCoRaHS 23.9 NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 21.9 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 21.7 Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 64.8 NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 63.9 SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 63.7 MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 63.5 SPARTA TWP 3.3 NW CoCoRaHS 61.0 Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 46.1 MOUNT SINAI COOP 41.3 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 39.3 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 38.2 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 37.8 CENTERPORT COOP 36.7 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 35.4 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 33.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Suffolk beat Sussex this year in 21-22 snowfall challenge. Very progressive pattern kept the storm track further east. Last winter the tucked in blocking storm track allowed Sussex to win. Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 38.3 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 38.0 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.7 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 37.0 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 33.8 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 33.6 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 31.5 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 30.9 Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE CoCoRaHS 28.0 WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 27.3 SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 27.3 MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 26.1 VERNON TWP 1.7 N CoCoRaHS 23.9 NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 21.9 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 21.7 Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 64.8 NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 63.9 SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 63.7 MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 63.5 SPARTA TWP 3.3 NW CoCoRaHS 61.0 Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 46.1 MOUNT SINAI COOP 41.3 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 39.3 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 38.2 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 37.8 CENTERPORT COOP 36.7 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 35.4 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 33.5 Going with 31.5” final snow for the season here. Overall just about average. Shame that the 1/29 storm couldn’t have been just a little better developed and spread heavier snow back into the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Not a good pattern if you like warmth 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 40 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Going with 31.5” final snow for the season here. Overall just about average. Shame that the 1/29 storm couldn’t have been just a little better developed and spread heavier snow back into the city. The SPV was just too strong this winter. We could have used this strat warming and SPV weakening months earlier. Blocking this late in the season is cool and rainy rather than snowy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The SPV was just too strong this winter. We could have used this strat warming and SPV weakening months earlier. Blocking this late in the season is cool and rainy rather than snowy. So annoying how this keeps popping up in April now. Does us diddly squat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, jm1220 said: So annoying how this keeps popping up in April now. Does us diddly squat. The super El Niño in 15-16 really changed up the blocking patterns. We used to get stronger winter blocking that weakened during the spring. Now the weaker winter blocking gets stronger in the spring. After the event in 15-16 Before 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Not a good pattern if you like warmth Very true:/By May though average highs should be mid 60sI can wait 3-4 more weeks Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Not sure if its right or not but the 12z NAM got quite a bit wetter for mid to late week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The super El Niño in 15-16 really changed up the blocking patterns. We used to get stronger winter blocking that weakened during the spring. Now the weaker winter blocking gets stronger in the spring. After the event in 15-16 Before Yeah, garbage. Hopefully we can get the tropics to reshuffle to stop this never ending Nina or Nina like outcome. Big part of it seems to be how the W PAC has warmed so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 i made the climate change thread so good posts like this don't get lost in long general discussion threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 59 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Not sure if its right or not but the 12z NAM got quite a bit wetter for mid to late week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Not sure if its right or not but the 12z NAM got quite a bit wetter for mid to late week. Yep, got much wetter. Good news for the drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 43 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep, got much wetter. Good news for the drought. what drought? there hasn't been a drought here since 2002? We dont need a single drop of rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what drought? there hasn't been a drought here since 2002? We dont need a single drop of rain some areas of NJ are showing dry on the drought monitor. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: what drought? there hasn't been a drought here since 2002? We dont need a single drop of rain Yeah, 2002 was the last time that NYC had water restrictions. The occasional drier intervals since then have been mostly nuisance level that have resolved rather quickly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 of course it would rain on thursday to cancel opening day, bullshit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Yep, got much wetter. Good news for the drought. Droughts don't last very long here anymore. In fact they usually end in a deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 The Euro has over 2.00 “ across the area with a storm on Wednesday and another on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 some jackpots to 5.00 on Long Island over the next 8+ days-wet stretch coming up. - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 I'm basically resigned to the weather being hot garbage around here until Memorial Day. Every year now... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 NYC decade precipitation averages since 1870. 10 yr.............Ave. per year. lowest and highest year 1870's..............43.73"........39.25".......51.26" 1880's..............43.54"........35.37".......57.16" 1890's..............41.84"........35.37".......48.26" 1900's..............44.84"........37.44".......58.32" 1910's..............44.24"........33.72".......58.00" 1920's..............44.92"........37.76".......56.06" 1930's..............44.60"........33.85".......53.53" 1940's..............42.16"........36.24".......48.51" 1950's..............39.59"........35.58".......45.20" 1960's..............39.74"........26.09".......48.54" 1970's..............52.31"........35.29".......67.03" 1980's..............49.96"........38.11".......80.56" 1990's..............47.29"........40.42".......60.92" 2000's..............53.18"........35.92".......61.70" 2010's..............50.76"........38.51".......72.81" 1956-1965........36.87"........26.09".......46.39" 2002-2011........56.27"........45.21".......72.81" 1870- 2019................45.51" 1870- 1969................42.92" 1970- 2019................50.70" ........................................................................................................................................... 1826-1864 from Jamiaca N.Y...1865-1868- Central Park... years.................ave..........lowest........highest 1826-1835.......37.95"........28.78"........55.67" 1836-1845.......36.67"........32.13"........44.57" 1846-1855.......39.50"........30.08"........46.40" 1856-1865.......41.30"........31.08"........59.68" 1866-1869.......48.57"........38.26"........57.40" 4yr ave... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 1 hour ago, matt8204 said: I'm basically resigned to the weather being hot garbage around here until Memorial Day. Every year now... There is a torch for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 12 hours ago, bluewave said: Suffolk beat Sussex this year in 21-22 snowfall challenge. Very progressive pattern kept the storm track further east. Last winter the tucked in blocking storm track allowed Sussex to win. Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 38.3 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 38.0 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.7 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 37.0 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 33.8 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 33.6 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 31.5 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 30.9 Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE CoCoRaHS 28.0 WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 27.3 SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 27.3 MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 26.1 VERNON TWP 1.7 N CoCoRaHS 23.9 NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 21.9 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 21.7 Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 64.8 NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 63.9 SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 63.7 MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 63.5 SPARTA TWP 3.3 NW CoCoRaHS 61.0 Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 46.1 MOUNT SINAI COOP 41.3 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 39.3 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 38.2 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 37.8 CENTERPORT COOP 36.7 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 35.4 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 33.5 I will take the inland weather pattern with the severe stuff. Last week we had snow squall warnings and tornado warnings all in the same week that verified in east central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Is April likelier to be above or below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: There is a torch for next week Depends on how far the storm over the weekend can clear east of us. If it gets stuck over the Maritimes and heights stay low there, good chance there will be a backdoor front nearby. It'll encourage a high to develop NE of Maine and easterly flow. If it heads east and there's no blocking, we'll get the nice westerly flow for a day or two. Looks short lived unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 24 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Depends on how far the storm over the weekend can clear east of us. If it gets stuck over the Maritimes and heights stay low there, good chance there will be a backdoor front nearby. It'll encourage a high to develop NE of Maine and easterly flow. If it heads east and there's no blocking, we'll get the nice westerly flow for a day or two. Looks short lived unfortunately. Over/under on whether or not April is a below or above normal month temperature wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 Rain and showers will continue overnight. Some of the rain tomorrow morning could be heavy. Overall, rain and showers and could linger through at least Thursday even as there will likely be a break tomorrow. Overall, the week will see mainly near to somewhat below normal temperatures. There are growing hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could move into the region next week for several days. It is likely that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +25.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.690 today. On April 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.372 (RMM). The April 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.331 (RMM). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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